Brest vs Toulouse: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Ligue 129 August 2026Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest18°4,3 mm28 km/h

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BrestPossession & high press

ToulousePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Toulouse (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.60 (+3 %)

1 · Brest 35%X 29%35% Toulouse · 2

35%

29%

35%

Analysis: Brest – Toulouse

Anna Karlsson · 24 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The most striking number here is the 35% chance of both Brest and Toulouse winning, highlighting a razor-thin margin that the model slightly leans in favor of the visitors. Both teams are evenly matched in terms of outright probabilities, but the expected goals tilt towards Toulouse with 1.39 compared to Brest's 1.30. This reflects a subtle edge for the visitors, despite Brest's slightly better xG statistics historically and a home advantage.

Yet, digging deeper, Brest's past performances against Toulouse reveal a small sample size of four matches with two wins each since 2022, suggesting a balanced head-to-head record that holds less weight than current team form. Interestingly, the expected goals per match and xPoints metrics favor the hosts, indicating that Brest has often created more and conceded less in recent displays compared to Toulouse. However, the expected weather conditions, with 6.3 mm of rain, could suppress goal-scoring opportunities, impacting both teams' attacking prowess—though this element is already factored into the model.

For bettors, the standout value lies with Toulouse, given their model lean and slight xG advantage. With both teams also having a 55% chance to score, a 1-1 draw seems the most likely result, while the over/under 2.5 goals market hovers just above even at 51%, suggesting a cautious but intriguing betting landscape.

Brest

Form LLLDD

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #3xP/match #2Points #12

Key players

Ludovic AjorqueFxG 0.80 · xT 0.18
Joris Jean-Claude Jacques ChotardCMxG 0.07 · xT -0.01
Kenny LalaRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.77

Toulouse

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #14xP/match #5Points #15

Key players

Gnantin Yann-Alexandre GbohoLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.15
Aron Leonard DønnumRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.20
Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr.CMxG 0.06 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Brest – Toulouse

Predicted score matrix

Toulouse →

Brest →

0–07.1%

0–19.1%

0–26.6%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.4%

1–08.4%

1–112.6%

1–28.5%

1–34.0%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.7%

2–18.0%

2–25.6%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.5%

3–13.5%

3–22.4%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,30–1,39

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.87

Over 2,551%

@2.00EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Toulouse or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Toulouse or draw (X2)65%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Gnantin Yann-Alexandre Gboho to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Ludovic Ajorque to score24%
Rasmus Schmidt Nicolaisen to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.528% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
Over 3.528% probability@3.60BetssonEV+3%reference odds
Over 3.528% probability@3.60NordicbetEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brest	X	2 · Toulouse
Betsafe	2.65	3.40	2.55
Betsson	2.65	3.40	2.55
Nordicbet	2.65	3.40	2.55
Pinnacle	2.71	3.41	2.67

Odds updated 25 Aug, 10:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

38 %33 %

2.69 → 2.71

X+1 %

31 %26 %

3.39 → 3.41

20 %

39 %34 %

2.67 → 2.67

Over 2,5+1 %

51 %46 %

1.99 → 2.00

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 25/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Brest 2Draw 0Toulouse 2

Goals: 6–6 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brest

Toulouse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brest (2–2)

Toulouse (0–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brest

Toulouse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brest

Toulouse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brest	Toulouse
Points	1	0
xPoints	2.5	1.8
xG per match	3.1	1.9
xGA per match	0.59	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.41	0.44
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.12

Playing style	Brest	Toulouse
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.66	0.4
xT per match	1.6	0.62
xTA per match	0.45	0.42
Won balls, offensive half	48	21
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.15
Entries into the box per match	20	15
Entries into the box against	5	12
Pass completion %	0.73	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.72
Passes per match	322	376
Passes against per match	320	424
Switches of play per match	41.8	34.4
Long balls per match	50	39

Set pieces	Brest	Toulouse
xG from free kicks	0.28	0
Corners per match	9.7	6.1
Corners against per match	0.97	5.1
xG per corner	0.12	0.13
xGA per corner against	0	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.8
First touch, defensive corners %	1	0.8

Other	Brest	Toulouse
Throw-in control	0.64	0.78

The goalkeepers	Egil Selvik (Brest)	Rasmus Nicolaisen (Toulouse)
Saves	3	2
Save %	60%	100%
xG prevented	32%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brest vs Toulouse according to our model?

The model gives Toulouse a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brest 35%, draw 29%, Toulouse 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.