01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Le Havre or draw (1X)70%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Ligue 1Stade Océane, Le Havre18°14 km/h
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Le HavreCounter-attacks & crossesvs
AngersBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Le Havre (41%)
Le Havre – Angers · Ligue 1
1 · Le Havre 41%X 31%28% Angers · 2
41%
31%
28%
Analysis: Le Havre – Angers
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Le Havre's counter-attacking flair against Angers' physical balance sets the stage for an intriguing tactical battle. The hosts, with a 41% probability of victory, seem slightly favored, yet the underlying numbers suggest a tighter contest. Both teams have struggled offensively, with expected goals of 1.29 for Le Havre and 1.06 for Angers, indicating a potential for a low-scoring affair.
The historical head-to-head record is evenly split over four matches since 2022, which provides limited insight given the small sample size. However, in current season form, Angers has demonstrated a slight edge in both points (3 to Le Havre's 1) and expected points (4.4 to Le Havre's 2.7). This slight superiority extends to expected goals per match, with Angers averaging 1.8 compared to Le Havre's 1.2. Defensively, Angers again holds the advantage, conceding fewer expected goals against per match (1.5 versus Le Havre's 2.0).
The model highlights a significant betting angle on under 2.5 goals, with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 1.78, giving a 4% value edge at an implied probability of 58%. Considering both teams' modest attacking metrics and defensive postures, this wager aligns well with the expected gameplay pattern.
In terms of a scoreline, the model predicts 1-1 as the most likely outcome at 13%, followed closely by a 1-0 win for Le Havre at 12%. The likelihood of a goalless draw stands at 10%. With only a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams to score marked at 48%, a conservative prediction would lean towards a tight match, with Le Havre's tactical approach possibly edging what could be a 1-0 victory.
Ultimately, while the hosts might carry slight favoritism, the data hints at a cautious encounter, where the under 2.5 goals market presents the most compelling betting opportunity.
Le HavreForm LWLDL
League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #8xP/match #17Points #16
Key players
- Ally SamattaFxG 0.31 · xT 0.10
- Simon EbonogCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
- Enzo Koffi VinetteLWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.16
AngersForm DDLWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #9xT #9xP/match #7Points #9
Key players
- Carlens ArcusRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.21
- Branco van den BoomenCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
- Amine El OuazzaniFxG 0.37 · xT -0.01
Match prediction: Le Havre – Angers
Predicted score matrix
Angers →
Le Havre →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.9%
0–19.8%
0–25.4%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–011.9%
1–113.4%
1–26.9%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–07.9%
2–18.4%
2–24.5%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.4%
3–13.6%
3–21.9%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.5%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-110%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,29–1,06
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@1.76EV+2%
Over 2,542%
@2.13
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Le Havre or draw (1X)70%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Issa Soumaré to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Issa Soumaré to score31%
- Marius Courcoul to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Le Havre41% probability@2.55PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- Under 2.558% probability@1.76PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.558% probability@1.75BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Le Havre | X | 2 · Angers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| Betsson | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 2.55 | EV+ 1% 3.27 | 2.95 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 15:38
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Angers win since 4 September — the odds have shortened from 3.44 to 2.95 (−14%).
1+16 %
45 %35 %
2.19 → 2.55
X+1 %
34 %24 %
3.25 → 3.27
2-14 %
36 %26 %
3.44 → 2.95
Over 2,5-3 %
50 %40 %
2.20 → 2.13
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesLe Havre 1Draw 2Angers 1
Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Le Havre
Angers
Le Havre (2–4)
Angers (4–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Le Havre
Angers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Le Havre
Angers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Le Havre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 3 |
| xPoints | 2.7 | 4.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| Playing style | Le Havre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 329 | 337 |
| Passes against per match | 343 | 402 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.3 | 34.4 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 44 |
| Set pieces | Le Havre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 9.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.56 |
| Other | Le Havre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Lionel Mpasi-Nzau (Le Havre) | Anthony Lopes (Angers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 16 |
| Save % | 83% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 74% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Le Havre vs Angers according to our model?
The model gives Le Havre a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Le Havre 41%, draw 31%, Angers 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.