Lens vs Auxerre: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Ligue 122 August 2026Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens16°2,7 mm12 km/h

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LensPossession & high press

AuxerrePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Lens (66%)

1 · Lens 66%X 20%14% Auxerre · 2

66%

20%

14%

Analysis: Lens – Auxerre

Marcus Johansson · 18 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Lens holds a compelling advantage going into their clash with Auxerre, as evidenced by their impressive 66% probability of emerging victorious. What stands out immediately is Lens' consistency in front of goal, having scored in 16 consecutive league matches. This offensive reliability is further reflected in their expected goals (xG) of 2.01, compared to Auxerre's 0.86. Despite Auxerre's recent surge with three straight victories, they face a daunting task against a Lens side that clinches victory in 72% of their home games.

Lens, with their high press and possession-oriented style, are well-positioned to trouble an Auxerre team that also favors possession control but may lack the defensive fortitude to withstand sustained pressure. This contrast in styles, coupled with Lens' superior xPoints (57.1 compared to Auxerre's 47.3), suggests that the home side is primed to dominate the proceedings. The model indicates 2-0 and 1-0 scorelines as equally likely, each with an 11% probability, underlining the expectation of a Lens clean sheet.

The anticipated rainfall of 2.7 mm could potentially temper the goal-scoring exploits, yet even with this weather consideration, the over 2.5 goals market stands at 55%. This suggests that while goals may not flow freely, the conditions are already factored into predictions. Despite the weather, Lens' attacking threat remains potent, and with Auxerre's xGA of 1.3, they could well find themselves exposed.

A 2-0 victory for Lens seems the most plausible outcome, and savvy punters may find value in backing the home win at odds of 1.6 with bookmakers Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's 66% rating on this outcome provides a 5% edge, offering a smart opportunity to capitalize on Lens' home prowess and Auxerre's daunting challenge.

Lens

Form WLWDD

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #1xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Odsonne EdouardFxG 0.48 · xT 0.02
Florian Tristán Mariano ThauvinRWxG 0.41 · xT 0.28
Matthieu UdolLWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.30

Auxerre

Form DLWWW

League ranking xG #15xGA #7xT #17xP/match #8Points #14

Key players

Lassine Fanta Mady SinayokoFxG 0.32 · xT 0.11
Kévin DanoisCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
Gideon MensahLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Lens – Auxerre

Predicted score matrix

Auxerre →

Lens →

0–05.9%

0–14.6%

0–22.1%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.1%

1–110.1%

1–24.2%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.4%

2–19.9%

2–24.2%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–07.7%

3–16.6%

3–22.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–06.1%

4+–15.3%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-011%
3.1-110%
4.2-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,01–0,86

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.26EV+2%

Over 2,555%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lens to win66%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lens to win66%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Angelo Fulgini to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Angelo Fulgini to score36%
Elisha Owusu to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Lens66% probability@1.60BetsafeEV+5%
1 · Lens66% probability@1.60BetssonEV+5%
1 · Lens66% probability@1.60NordicbetEV+5%

Bookmaker	1 · Lens	X	2 · Auxerre
Betsafe	EV+ 5% 1.60	4.00	5.30
Betsson	EV+ 5% 1.60	4.00	5.30
Nordicbet	EV+ 5% 1.60	4.00	5.30

Odds updated 18 Aug, 05:36

Statistics

Key facts

Racing Club de Lens have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
Auxerre come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Racing Club de Lens win 72% of their home matches all-time (36 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Auxerre

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Auxerre (34–44)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Auxerre

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Auxerre

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lens	Auxerre
Points	70	35
xPoints	57.1	47.3
xG per match	2	1.1
xGA per match	1.2	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.31

Playing style	Lens	Auxerre
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.56	0.5
xT per match	1.4	0.71
xTA per match	0.81	1
Won balls, offensive half	29	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.3
Entries into the box per match	16	10
Entries into the box against	11	13
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.73
Passes per match	408	315
Passes against per match	394	428
Switches of play per match	30.5	22.6
Long balls per match	31	30

Set pieces	Lens	Auxerre
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.06
Corners per match	6.2	4.8
Corners against per match	4.2	4.8
xG per corner	0.07	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.54

Other	Lens	Auxerre
Throw-in control	0.69	0.65

The goalkeepers	Lens	Donovan Leon (Auxerre)
Saves	–	98
Save %	–	75%
xG prevented	–	55%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lens vs Auxerre according to our model?

The model gives Lens a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lens 66%, draw 20%, Auxerre 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.