01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lorient or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Ligue 1Stade du Moustoir, Lorient18°13 km/h
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LorientCounter-attacks & crossesvs
ToulousePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Lorient (42%)
Lorient – Toulouse · Ligue 1
1 · Lorient 42%X 31%27% Toulouse · 2
42%
31%
27%
Analysis: Lorient – Toulouse
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
Two matches between these sides since 2022 offer a slim sample: a draw and a win for the visitors. While historical outcomes provide a glimpse, they're not as telling as the current context. The model leans towards the hosts with a 42% probability of victory, a stance reinforced by Lorient’s stronger start to the season. They have accumulated five points compared to just one for the visitors, suggesting a more stable performance in recent games.
Lorient's style, rooted in counter-attacking and crossing, contrasts with Toulouse's possession-centered approach. This divergence sets the stage for a fascinating tactical battle. In line with conceding fewer expected goals (xGA) per match, Lorient holds a tighter defensive edge, which might prove crucial against a Toulouse side that has been more prolific in generating chances. Nonetheless, the model lists 1-1 and 1-0 scorelines among the most likely outcomes, hinting at a tightly contested match hovering right around the 2.5 goals mark.
The expected goals (xG) metrics paint a nuanced picture: Lorient averages 1.45 with Toulouse close behind at 1.24. These figures, along with a 55% probability for both teams to score, suggest a balanced contest in terms of offensive potency. The numbers recommend caution against expecting fireworks — a tight 1-0 or a 1-1 draw feels plausible, playing to the strengths of each defense.
Value seekers should note the odds on a Lorient victory, particularly the 2.55 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With the model assigning a 42% chance of a home win, this represents a 7% edge — an opportunity worth examining for those drawn to disciplined, data-backed wagers.
LorientForm WLDDW
League ranking xG #13xGA #6xT #4xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Montassar Omar TalbiCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
- Jean-Victor MakengoCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.10
- Arthur Ebong AvomCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.38
ToulouseForm WWLDL
League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #14xP/match #6Points #17
Key players
- Jacen Rex Orlando Russell-RoweFxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
- Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr.CDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.23
- Santiago HidalgoLWxG 0.44 · xT -0.01
Match prediction: Lorient – Toulouse
Predicted score matrix
Toulouse →
Lorient →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–18.0%
0–25.2%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–09.5%
1–112.5%
1–27.6%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.1%
2–18.9%
2–25.5%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.3%
3–22.7%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,45–1,24
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,550%
@1.90
Over 2,550%
@1.97
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lorient or draw (1X)68%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Mohamed Bamba to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Mohamed Bamba to score28%
- Rasmus Schmidt Nicolaisen to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Lorient42% probability@2.60BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Lorient42% probability@2.60BetssonEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Lorient42% probability@2.60NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lorient | X | 2 · Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 9% 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betsson | EV+ 9% 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 9% 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 9% 2.60 | EV+ 4% 3.35 | 2.82 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 4 September — the odds have shortened from 2.07 to 1.97 (−5%).
1-3 %
39 %34 %
2.68 → 2.60
X+5 %
32 %27 %
3.19 → 3.35
2+3 %
37 %32 %
2.74 → 2.82
Over 2,5-5 %
50 %45 %
2.07 → 1.97
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesLorient 0Draw 1Toulouse 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lorient
Toulouse
Lorient (2–2)
Toulouse (2–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lorient
Toulouse
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lorient
Toulouse
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lorient | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 1 |
| xPoints | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.08 | 0.4 |
| Playing style | Lorient | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.85 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 459 | 399 |
| Passes against per match | 463 | 401 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.4 | 28.7 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Lorient | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 1.7 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 7.6 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.92 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| Other | Lorient | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Yvon Mvogo (Lorient) | Guillaume Restes (Toulouse) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 9 |
| Save % | 78% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 64% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lorient vs Toulouse according to our model?
The model gives Lorient a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lorient 42%, draw 31%, Toulouse 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.