Ligue 1Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille18°24,1 mm21 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    LilleLilleBalanced & physical
    vs
    Paris Saint-GermainParis Saint-GermainPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Paris Saint-Germain (44%)Best value by the model: 1 · Lille @ 4.68 (+40 %)

    Lille – Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1

    1 · Lille 30%X 26%44% Paris Saint-Germain · 2

    Analysis: Lille – Paris Saint-Germain

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    FAKTA: The text includes a betting odds claim ("Bet365 offers PSG to win at odds of 2.30") that is not supported by any information in the provided facts. This appears to be a fabricated/unsupported detail and should be removed.

    CORRECTED TEXT:

    Lille's home record offers a sense of solidity as they gear up to host Paris Saint-Germain, a team riding high on an impressive scoring streak. Despite the visitors' low points tally this season, their ability to find the back of the net in 21 consecutive league matches looms large. Lille will seek to leverage their balanced and physical approach, but PSG's high-press possession game demands attention.

    The rain forecast, predicting 5.8 mm, could temper the flow of the match somewhat, potentially suppressing goal-scoring opportunities. Nonetheless, the model's probabilities position PSG as the favorite with a 44% chance of victory, and expected goals lean toward the visitors as well. Lille's 56% all-time home win rate over 34 matches provides a counterbalance, yet recent head-to-head encounters — though limited in number — show PSG’s dominance with three wins and a draw since 2022.

    A close contest is anticipated, with the model highlighting 1-1 (12%) and 0-1 (10%) as the most probable outcomes. Lille's slightly stronger current form in terms of points and expected points suggests resilience, but PSG's defensive discipline (xGA per match: 1.1) could stifle Lille's attacking efforts. The likelihood of both teams finding the net stands at 55%, while the over 2.5 goals market teeters at 51%.

    It’s a play rooted in stats rather than spectacle, banking on PSG’s ability to maintain their scoring streak while keeping Lille at bay.

    LilleLille
    Form WDWLW
    League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #11xP/match #10Points #3
    Key players
    • Olivier GiroudFxG 0.50 · xT -0.03
    • Hákon Arnar HaraldssonCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
    • Matias Fernandez-PardoLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.12
    Paris Saint-GermainParis Saint-Germain
    Form DWWLD
    League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #5xP/match #12Points #13
    Key players
    • Desire DoueFxG 0.30 · xT 0.15
    • Goncalo RamosFxG 0.61 · xT -0.03
    • Achraf HakimiRWBxG 0.14 · xT 0.16

    Match prediction: Lille – Paris Saint-Germain

    Predicted score matrix

    Paris Saint-Germain →
    Lille →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.0%
    0–19.8%
    0–27.7%
    0–33.9%
    0–4+2.1%
    1
    1–07.5%
    1–112.4%
    1–29.2%
    1–34.7%
    1–4+2.5%
    2
    2–04.7%
    2–17.1%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–01.9%
    3–12.8%
    3–22.2%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.1-08%
    Expected goals
    1,19–1,52
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @2.13EV+5%
    Over 2,551%
    @1.75

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Paris Saint-Germain or draw (X2)71%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.85

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Paris Saint-Germain or draw (X2)71%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Gonçalo Matias Ramos to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Soriba Diaoune to score31%
    • Vítor Machado Ferreira to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Lille30% probability@4.68PinnacleEV+40%reference odds
    • Under 2.549% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
    • X · Draw26% probability@4.02PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · LilleX2 · Paris Saint-Germain
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 40%
    4.68
    EV+ 4%
    4.02    		1.73

    Odds updated 26 Aug, 05:18

    Odds movement

    1+5 %
    24 %19 %

    4.45 → 4.68

    X+3 %
    27 %22 %

    3.89 → 4.02

    2-3 %
    57 %52 %

    1.77 → 1.73

    Over 2,50 %
    57 %52 %

    1.76 → 1.75

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Lille 0Draw 1Paris Saint-Germain 3
    Goals: 3–11 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Paris Saint-Germain have scored in 21 consecutive league matches.
    • LOSC Lille win 56% of their home matches all-time (34 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Lille
    Paris Saint-Germain
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Lille (2–0)
    Paris Saint-Germain (2–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Lille
    Nabil Bentaleb: 48 passningar, xT 0.05BentalebAlexsandro Victor de Souza Ribeiro: 42 passningar, xT 0.06RibeiroNathan Ngoy: 34 passningar, xT 0.02NgoyRomain Perraud: 31 passningar, xT 0.08PerraudNgal'ayel Mukau: 30 passningar, xT 0.02MukauBerke Özer: 27 passningar, xT 0.01ÖzerHákon Arnar Haraldsson: 22 passningar, xT 0.14HaraldssonEthan Mbappe: 20 passningar, xT -0.02MbappeTiago Carvalho Santos: 20 passningar, xT 0.05SantosBaşar Önal: 10 passningar, xT 0ÖnalFelix Correia: 8 passningar, xT -0.01Correia
    Paris Saint-Germain
    Vítor Machado Ferreira: 87 passningar, xT 0.13FerreiraAchraf Hakimi: 80 passningar, xT 0.14HakimiLucas Hernandez: 78 passningar, xT 0.18HernandezMarcos Aoás Corrêa: 70 passningar, xT 0.22CorrêaJoao Neves: 56 passningar, xT -0.02NevesWillian Pacho: 55 passningar, xT 0.03PachoDesire Doue: 50 passningar, xT -0.03DoueMika Marcel Godts: 35 passningar, xT 0.09GodtsWarren Zaïre-Emery: 34 passningar, xT 0Zaïre-EmeryFabian Ruiz: 24 passningar, xT 0.13RuizMatvey Safonov: 22 passningar, xT 0.02Safonov
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Lille
    Nabil Bentaleb: 48 passningar, xT 0.05BentalebAlexsandro Victor de Souza Ribeiro: 42 passningar, xT 0.06RibeiroNathan Ngoy: 34 passningar, xT 0.02NgoyRomain Perraud: 31 passningar, xT 0.08PerraudNgal'ayel Mukau: 30 passningar, xT 0.02MukauBerke Özer: 27 passningar, xT 0.01ÖzerHákon Arnar Haraldsson: 22 passningar, xT 0.14HaraldssonEthan Mbappe: 20 passningar, xT -0.02MbappeTiago Carvalho Santos: 20 passningar, xT 0.05SantosBaşar Önal: 10 passningar, xT 0ÖnalFelix Correia: 8 passningar, xT -0.01Correia
    Paris Saint-Germain
    Vítor Machado Ferreira: 87 passningar, xT 0.13FerreiraAchraf Hakimi: 80 passningar, xT 0.14HakimiLucas Hernandez: 78 passningar, xT 0.18HernandezMarcos Aoás Corrêa: 70 passningar, xT 0.22CorrêaJoao Neves: 56 passningar, xT -0.02NevesWillian Pacho: 55 passningar, xT 0.03PachoDesire Doue: 50 passningar, xT -0.03DoueMika Marcel Godts: 35 passningar, xT 0.09GodtsWarren Zaïre-Emery: 34 passningar, xT 0Zaïre-EmeryFabian Ruiz: 24 passningar, xT 0.13RuizMatvey Safonov: 22 passningar, xT 0.02Safonov

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceLilleParis Saint-Germain
    Points31
    xPoints1.31
    xG per match1.21.4
    xGA per match2.11.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.110.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.230.42
    Playing styleLilleParis Saint-Germain
    Build-up efficiency0.320.34
    Field tilt0.420.86
    xT per match0.871.2
    xTA per match1.40.92
    Won balls, offensive half3332
    Pressing intensity0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency0.230.37
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.3
    Entries into the box per match1415
    Entries into the box against207
    Pass completion %0.770.85
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.76
    Passes per match315687
    Passes against per match425268
    Switches of play per match878.7
    Long balls per match2781
    Set piecesLilleParis Saint-Germain
    xG from free kicks00.08
    Corners per match310.2
    Corners against per match80
    xG per corner00
    xGA per corner against0.050
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.6
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50
    OtherLilleParis Saint-Germain
    Throw-in control0.450.8
    The goalkeepersAlexsandro Victor de Souza Ribeiro (Lille)Willian Pacho (Paris Saint-Germain)
    Saves32
    Save %100%100%
    xG prevented100%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain according to our model?

    The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lille 30%, draw 26%, Paris Saint-Germain 44%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    MarseilleMarseille
    4–0
    StrasbourgStrasbourg
    1 60%X 21%2 19%
    The model called the outcome
    Le MansLe Mans
    2–2
    BrestBrest
    1 44%X 28%2 27%
    The model missed the outcome
    ToulouseToulouse
    0–2
    LyonLyon
    1 26%X 26%2 47%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.