01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lyon to win59%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Ligue 1Groupama Stadium, Lyon26°8 km/h
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LyonPossession controlvs
AuxerreBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Lyon (59%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.59 (+9 %)
Lyon – Auxerre · Ligue 1
1 · Lyon 59%X 24%17% Auxerre · 2
59%
24%
17%
Analysis: Lyon – Auxerre
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Lyon's possession-based control will likely shape the match against Auxerre, whose balanced and physical approach might not easily disrupt the hosts' rhythm. The model gives Lyon a solid 59% chance of victory, reflecting their stronger home record and overall form. Although this suggests a Lyon win, the expected goals (xG) of 1.90 to 0.90 indicates a tighter contest than the odds imply.
The most probable outcomes—1-0, 2-0, and 1-1, each pegged at 11%—mirror the expected tactical battle. Lyon's possession might suppress Auxerre's chances, but the visitors' physicality could stifle the hosts' fluidity. While Lyon have a historical home win percentage of 66%, their xG per match is only slightly lower than Auxerre's at 1.4 to 1.5. This indicates that Auxerre could be underestimated.
Despite the small sample size of four head-to-head matches since 2022, Lyon's two wins and two draws underscore their edge. However, Auxerre's superior xG per match suggests they can create opportunities. The model's lean towards Lyon is consistent with the points tally (4-0) and xPoints (2.7-2.2), yet Auxerre's higher xG per match and Lyon's notably better xGA (1.4 vs 2.5) present a mixed picture.
Where the smart money might lie, though, is on the total goals market. The under 2.5 goals bet, available at odds of 2.16 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offers a 2% edge according to the model's 47% projection. Given the expectation for a moderately low-scoring affair, this under bet might be the sharpest angle to exploit.
LyonForm WLLWD
League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #13xP/match #8Points #3
Key players
- Lois OpendaFxG 0.62 · xT 0.09
- Corentin TolissoLWxG 0.53 · xT 0.17
- Moussa NiakhatéCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
AuxerreForm WWWLL
League ranking xG #7xGA #17xT #9xP/match #13Points #18
Key players
- Daniel Namaso Edi-Mesumbe LoaderFxG 0.54 · xT 0.00
- Kévin DanoisCDMxG 0.14 · xT 0.09
- Lamine SyRWBxG 0.25 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Lyon – Auxerre
Predicted score matrix
Auxerre →
Lyon →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–15.2%
0–22.5%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–011.3%
1–110.7%
1–24.7%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–011.0%
2–19.9%
2–24.4%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.0%
3–16.2%
3–22.8%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–05.1%
4+–14.6%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-011%
- 2.2-011%
- 3.1-111%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,90–0,90
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.26EV+6%
Over 2,553%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lyon to win59%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Pavel Šulc to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Pavel Šulc to score33%
- Elisha Owusu to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw24% probability@4.59PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- 2 · Auxerre17% probability@6.41PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lyon | X | 2 · Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.50 | 4.15 | EV+ 6% 6.30 |
| Betsson | 1.50 | 4.15 | EV+ 6% 6.30 |
| Nordicbet | 1.50 | 4.15 | EV+ 6% 6.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | EV+ 9% 4.59 | EV+ 8% 6.41 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 02:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Lyon win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 1.55 to 1.50 (−3%).
1-3 %
65 %60 %
1.55 → 1.50
X+8 %
24 %19 %
4.25 → 4.59
2+15 %
18 %13 %
5.58 → 6.41
Over 2,5-3 %
59 %54 %
1.72 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesLyon 2Draw 2Auxerre 0
Goals: 8–5 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Lyon win 66% of their home matches all-time (35 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lyon
Auxerre
Lyon (3–1)
Auxerre (3–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lyon
Auxerre
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lyon
Auxerre
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lyon | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 0 |
| xPoints | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Lyon | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.9 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.95 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 414 | 370 |
| Passes against per match | 332 | 321 |
| Switches of play per match | 44.2 | 29.5 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Lyon | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 6.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 6.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.7 | 0.64 |
| Other | Lyon | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Dominik Greif (Lyon) | Mamadou Diop (Auxerre) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 7 |
| Save % | 75% | 47% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 17% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lyon vs Auxerre according to our model?
The model gives Lyon a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lyon 59%, draw 24%, Auxerre 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.