Ligue 1Groupama Stadium, Lyon23°9 km/h

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    LyonLyonPossession control
    1–1
    Le HavreLe HavreBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Lyon (69%)

    Lyon – Le Havre · Ligue 1

    1 · Lyon 69%X 19%12% Le Havre · 2

    Analysis: Lyon – Le Havre

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Lyon's commanding 69% win probability sets a decisive tone against Le Havre, underscored by a 2-0 victory as the most probable outcome. The home team’s tactical preference for possession control contrasts sharply with the visitors' balanced and physical approach. Such a stylistic clash frequently tilts the balance toward the team dominating the ball, which is Lyon in this case. The hosts have claimed victory in 68% of their home matches, a statistic that aligns closely with the model's projection.

    Despite the small head-to-head sample of four encounters since 2022, Lyon's three wins and one draw show their historical dominance. However, the xG figures reveal a closer contest, with Lyon's 1.0 xG per match marginally outperforming Le Havre's 0.72. Lyon’s defensive vulnerabilities — 1.9 xGA per match — may give the visitors some hope, yet it's insufficient to tip the scales significantly.

    The 54% chance of over 2.5 goals suggests a lean towards a moderate scoring affair. However, the real opportunity lies with the EV+ on Lyon to win at odds of 1.48 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This 2% edge, albeit slim, reflects a calculated investment in the hosts' superior position, both historically and in expected performance metrics.

    LyonLyon
    Form WWLLW
    League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #17xP/match #14Points #4
    Key players
    • Pavel SulcFxG 0.41 · xT 0.03
    • Afonso MoreiraLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.17
    • EndrickRWxG 0.38 · xT 0.16
    Le HavreLe Havre
    Form DDLWL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #13xT #13xP/match #13Points #14
    Key players
    • Michael Amir Junior RichardsonFxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
    • Vincent Julien SassoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
    • Rassoul Kader NdiayeCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Lyon 69% · Draw 19% · Le Havre 12%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - LyonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,70fair 5,75-18 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Le HavreBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 25,29fair 34,23-26 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Lyon – Le Havre

    Predicted score matrix

    Le Havre →
    Lyon →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.1%
    0–14.5%
    0–22.0%
    0–30.5%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–011.5%
    1–110.0%
    1–24.0%
    1–31.1%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–011.9%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–08.0%
    3–16.6%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–06.4%
    4+–15.3%
    4+–22.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-012%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,02–0,82
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.12
    Over 2,554%
    @1.77

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Lyon to win69%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.87

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Lyon to win69%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Corentin Tolisso to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Corentin Tolisso to score29%
    • Arouna Sangante to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Lyon69% probability@1.49PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Lyon69% probability@1.48BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • 1 · Lyon69% probability@1.48BetssonEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · LyonX2 · Le Havre
    Betsafe
    EV+ 2%
    1.48    		4.156.80
    Betsson
    EV+ 2%
    1.48    		4.156.80
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 2%
    1.48    		4.156.80
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 3%
    1.49    		4.626.80

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

    Odds movement

    10 %
    67 %62 %

    1.49 → 1.49

    X+3 %
    24 %19 %

    4.49 → 4.62

    2+4 %
    17 %12 %

    6.53 → 6.80

    Over 2,5+1 %
    57 %52 %

    1.76 → 1.77

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Lyon 3Draw 1Le Havre 0
    Goals: 9–2 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Lyon win 68% of their home matches all-time (34 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Lyon
    Le Havre
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Lyon (2–0)
    Le Havre (0–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Lyon
    Clinton Mata: 82 passningar, xT 0.01MataFelix Bacher: 66 passningar, xT 0.08BacherMohamed Ouédraogo: 58 passningar, xT 0.07OuédraogoZachary Athekame: 35 passningar, xT 0.01AthekameRémy Descamps: 34 passningar, xT -0.02DescampsMathys de Carvalho Soares: 24 passningar, xT 0SoaresJulien Duranville: 18 passningar, xT 0DuranvilleCorentin Tolisso: 18 passningar, xT 0.15TolissoKaïl Boudache: 16 passningar, xT 0.03BoudacheNoah Teye Nartey: 16 passningar, xT 0NarteyPavel Sulc: 14 passningar, xT -0.08Sulc
    Le Havre
    Vincent Julien Sasso: 42 passningar, xT 0.07SassoRassoul Kader Ndiaye: 38 passningar, xT 0.07NdiayeAyumu Seko: 36 passningar, xT 0.09SekoJunior Mwanga: 31 passningar, xT 0.08MwangaSimon Ebonog: 30 passningar, xT 0EbonogLionel Mpasi-Nzau: 27 passningar, xT 0Mpasi-NzauEnzo Koffi Vinette: 25 passningar, xT 0VinetteTimothee Pembele: 23 passningar, xT 0.09PembeleMichael Amir Junior Richardson: 21 passningar, xT 0.04RichardsonFodé Doucouré: 19 passningar, xT 0.04DoucouréYanis Zouaoui: 11 passningar, xT 0.08Zouaoui
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Lyon
    Clinton Mata: 82 passningar, xT 0.01MataFelix Bacher: 66 passningar, xT 0.08BacherMohamed Ouédraogo: 58 passningar, xT 0.07OuédraogoZachary Athekame: 35 passningar, xT 0.01AthekameRémy Descamps: 34 passningar, xT -0.02DescampsMathys de Carvalho Soares: 24 passningar, xT 0SoaresJulien Duranville: 18 passningar, xT 0DuranvilleCorentin Tolisso: 18 passningar, xT 0.15TolissoKaïl Boudache: 16 passningar, xT 0.03BoudacheNoah Teye Nartey: 16 passningar, xT 0NarteyPavel Sulc: 14 passningar, xT -0.08Sulc
    Le Havre
    Vincent Julien Sasso: 42 passningar, xT 0.07SassoRassoul Kader Ndiaye: 38 passningar, xT 0.07NdiayeAyumu Seko: 36 passningar, xT 0.09SekoJunior Mwanga: 31 passningar, xT 0.08MwangaSimon Ebonog: 30 passningar, xT 0EbonogLionel Mpasi-Nzau: 27 passningar, xT 0Mpasi-NzauEnzo Koffi Vinette: 25 passningar, xT 0VinetteTimothee Pembele: 23 passningar, xT 0.09PembeleMichael Amir Junior Richardson: 21 passningar, xT 0.04RichardsonFodé Doucouré: 19 passningar, xT 0.04DoucouréYanis Zouaoui: 11 passningar, xT 0.08Zouaoui

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceLyonLe Havre
    Points30
    xPoints0.91
    xG per match10.72
    xGA per match1.91.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.1
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.440.15
    Playing styleLyonLe Havre
    Build-up efficiency0.310.29
    Field tilt0.60.47
    xT per match0.420.67
    xTA per match0.620.87
    Won balls, offensive half2333
    Pressing intensity0.220.25
    Pressing efficiency0.280.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.36
    Entries into the box per match1210
    Entries into the box against1516
    Pass completion %0.820.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.68
    Passes per match424327
    Passes against per match376348
    Switches of play per match38.417.8
    Long balls per match2925
    Set piecesLyonLe Havre
    xG from free kicks00.05
    Corners per match5.16.9
    Corners against per match6.14
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.130.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.20
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.75
    OtherLyonLe Havre
    Throw-in control0.710.64
    The goalkeepersRémy Descamps (Lyon)Lionel Mpasi-Nzau (Le Havre)
    Saves26
    Save %100%86%
    xG prevented100%84%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Lyon
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Le Havre
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Lyon vs Le Havre according to our model?

    The model gives Lyon a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lyon 69%, draw 19%, Le Havre 12%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.