01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Monaco or draw (1X)66%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Ligue 1Stade Louis II, Monaco26°9 km/h
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MonacoCounter-attacks & crosses2–0
MarseillePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Monaco (41%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.41 (+9 %)
Monaco – Marseille · Ligue 1
1 · Monaco 41%X 24%35% Marseille · 2
41%
24%
35%
Analysis: Monaco – Marseille
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Monaco and Marseille have split their last four encounters evenly, with two wins apiece. This head-to-head sample is limited, making it less impactful than their current form and expected goals data. Monaco boasts a dominant 65% win rate in home matches all-time, but the model leans slightly towards them with a 41% chance of victory. The most probable scorelines suggest a close contest, with 1-1 and 2-1 as the top scenarios, pointing to a balanced matchup.
Marseille arrives with momentum, having notched three consecutive victories. They possess an edge in xPoints (2.5 to Monaco's 1.7) and outpace Monaco in xG per match (2.0 vs. 1.6) and xGA per match (0.21 vs. 0.72), reflecting a more robust all-around performance recently. This suggests the visitors have the potential to disrupt Monaco's home advantage, especially with their high pressing play style that could unsettle the hosts' counter-attacking approach.
The expected goals tally stands at Monaco 1.51 and Marseille 1.36, hinting at a tight affair with a slight inclination towards more than two goals overall. However, the over 2.5 goals probability is a mere 55%, and both teams to score stands at 58%, indicating that while goals are likely, a high-scoring game isn't guaranteed.
The sharpest betting angle emerges with the under 2.5 goals market, where significant value exists. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.41 for under 2.5 goals, creating a 9% edge as the model rates this outcome at 45%. For those looking to capitalize on a strategic wager, this presents an intriguing opportunity to consider the possibility of a more controlled, lower-scoring match.
MonacoForm DWLLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #12xP/match #6Points #5
Key players
- Lamine CamaraCDMxG 0.04 · xT -0.03
- Vanderson de Oliveira CamposRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.27
- Aleksandr GolovinCAMxG 0.28 · xT 0.08
MarseilleForm DLWWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #7xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Mason GreenwoodRWxG 0.48 · xT 0.18
- Amine Ferid GouiriFxG 0.30 · xT 0.08
- Pierre Emerick AubameyangFxG 0.37 · xT 0.09
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Monaco 41% · Draw 24% · Marseille 35%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - MonacoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,03fair 8,25-27 %
MissMatchresultat - MarseilleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,57fair 10,13-35 %
MissMatch prediction: Monaco – Marseille
Predicted score matrix
Marseille →
Monaco →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–17.3%
0–25.2%
0–32.4%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–08.2%
1–112.0%
1–27.9%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.4%
2–18.8%
2–26.0%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–03.2%
3–14.4%
3–23.0%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,51–1,36
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.41EV+9%
Over 2,555%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Monaco or draw (1X)66%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Maghnes Akliouche to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Adilson Angel Abreu de Almeida Gomes to score28%
- Geoffrey Edwin Kondogbia to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.545% probability@2.41BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.41BetssonEV+9%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.41NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Monaco | X | 2 · Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 2.45 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Betsson | EV+ 1% 2.45 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 2.45 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 2.47 | 3.62 | 2.81 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:17
Odds movement
1-6 %
41 %36 %
2.62 → 2.47
X-2 %
29 %24 %
3.71 → 3.62
2+10 %
38 %33 %
2.55 → 2.81
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesMonaco 2Draw 0Marseille 2
Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Marseille come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Monaco win 65% of their home matches all-time (34 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Monaco
Marseille
Monaco (1–0)
Marseille (4–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Monaco
Marseille
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Monaco
Marseille
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Monaco | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 3 |
| xPoints | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 0.72 | 0.21 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.1 | 0 |
| Playing style | Monaco | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.53 | 0.75 |
| xT per match | 0.87 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.67 | 0.38 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 38 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.87 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.82 |
| Passes per match | 348 | 633 |
| Passes against per match | 327 | 275 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.8 | 33 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Monaco | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 6.9 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 1 | 0.75 |
| Other | Monaco | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukas Hradecky (Monaco) | Jeffrey de Lange (Marseille) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 2 |
| Save % | 100% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Monaco vs Marseille according to our model?
The model gives Monaco a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monaco 41%, draw 24%, Marseille 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.