Ligue 1Allianz Riviera, Nice25°10 km/h

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    NiceNicePossession & high press
    vs
    Le MansLe MansCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Nice (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Le Mans @ 4.25 (+36 %)

    Nice – Le Mans · Ligue 1

    1 · Nice 41%X 27%32% Le Mans · 2

    Analysis: Nice – Le Mans

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: A crucial number stands out: Le Mans' expected goals per match at 1.4, notably higher than Nice's 0.86. Despite the hosts' advantage in possession and pressing style, their offensive output struggles to match the visitors’ counterattacking efficacy. With Le Mans boasting a superior xPoints tally of 1.7 to Nice's 1.3, the edge in attacking quality is palpable.

    However, both defenses present vulnerabilities. Nice concedes an average xGA of 2.0 per match, while Le Mans fares worse at 2.8. This defensive frailty suggests neither side can confidently shut down the other. Given the tight margins in expected goals — 1.12 for Nice and 1.15 for Le Mans — and the most likely scoreline of 1-1, the draw holds significant appeal. The model assigns a 40% probability to over 2.5 goals, aligning with the anticipated close contest.

    Where the real value lies is in the visitors' odds. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering Le Mans at 4.65, the model’s 32% win probability suggests a noteworthy 49% edge. For those eyeing returns, backing Le Mans with these odds could be a shrewd move, offering substantial potential value in a finely balanced encounter.

    NiceNice
    Form DLDDL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #6xP/match #17Points #17
    Key players
    • Sofiane Daouda DiopCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.28
    • Jonathan ClaussRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.51
    • Youssouf NdayishimiyeCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
    Le MansLe Mans
    Form DL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #18xT #16xP/match #16Points #14
    Key players
    • Louis Didace MafoutaFxG 1.06 · xT 0.06
    • Dame GuèyeLWxG 0.33 · xT -0.02
    • Alexandre LaurayCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Nice – Le Mans

    Predicted score matrix

    Le Mans →
    Nice →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.7%
    0–111.5%
    0–26.8%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–011.2%
    1–113.7%
    1–27.6%
    1–32.9%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–06.5%
    2–17.5%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–02.4%
    3–12.8%
    3–21.6%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-011%
    4. 4.0-011%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,12–1,15
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,560%
    @2.00EV+19%
    Over 2,540%
    @1.88

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Nice or draw (1X)64%
    • Under 3.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Nice or draw (1X)64%
    • Under 2.5 goals60%
    • Charles Vanhoutte to score17%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals40%
    • Jean Vercruysse to score18%
    • Samuel Rodrigue Wouahi Yohou to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Le Mans32% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+36%reference odds
    • 2 · Le Mans32% probability@4.25BetssonEV+36%reference odds
    • 2 · Le Mans32% probability@4.25NordicbetEV+36%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · NiceX2 · Le Mans
    Betsafe1.823.60
    EV+ 36%
    4.25
    Betsson1.823.60
    EV+ 36%
    4.25
    Nordicbet1.823.60
    EV+ 36%
    4.25
    Pinnacle1.85
    EV+ 1%
    3.77
    EV+ 36%
    4.24

    Odds updated 3 Sept, 16:33

    Odds movement

    1+7 %
    55 %50 %

    1.73 → 1.85

    X+1 %
    28 %23 %

    3.74 → 3.77

    2-5 %
    24 %19 %

    4.48 → 4.24

    Over 2,5+1 %
    54 %49 %

    1.86 → 1.88

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Nice
    Le Mans
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Nice (0–3)
    Le Mans (4–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Nice
    Youssouf Ndayishimiye: 211 passningar, xT 0.12NdayishimiyeXavier Junior Mandza Tsiendi: 168 passningar, xT 0.17TsiendiGauthier Hein: 132 passningar, xT 0.09HeinAntoine Mendy: 108 passningar, xT 0.15MendyYehvann Diouf: 89 passningar, xT 0.03DioufJonathan Clauss: 85 passningar, xT 0.65ClaussMohamed Abdelmonem: 81 passningar, xT 0.2AbdelmonemSofiane Daouda Diop: 74 passningar, xT 0.47DiopMelvin Bard: 71 passningar, xT 0.02BardDjibril Coulibaly: 62 passningar, xT 0.03CoulibalyAxel Laurent Angel Lambert Witsel: 39 passningar, xT -0.07Witsel
    Le Mans
    Rayan Bamba: 62 passningar, xT 0.11BambaIlhan Fakili: 61 passningar, xT 0.06FakiliNicolas Kocik: 59 passningar, xT 0.01KocikTheo Eyoum: 55 passningar, xT -0.02EyoumAlexandre Lauray: 47 passningar, xT 0.06LaurayLucas Buadés: 41 passningar, xT 0.13BuadésAdil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa: 38 passningar, xT 0.21BourabaaHarold Voyer: 33 passningar, xT 0.02VoyerDame Guèye: 23 passningar, xT -0.02GuèyeAntoine Rabillard: 22 passningar, xT 0.32RabillardYasser Larouci: 22 passningar, xT 0Larouci
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Nice
    Youssouf Ndayishimiye: 211 passningar, xT 0.12NdayishimiyeXavier Junior Mandza Tsiendi: 168 passningar, xT 0.17TsiendiGauthier Hein: 132 passningar, xT 0.09HeinAntoine Mendy: 108 passningar, xT 0.15MendyYehvann Diouf: 89 passningar, xT 0.03DioufJonathan Clauss: 85 passningar, xT 0.65ClaussMohamed Abdelmonem: 81 passningar, xT 0.2AbdelmonemSofiane Daouda Diop: 74 passningar, xT 0.47DiopMelvin Bard: 71 passningar, xT 0.02BardDjibril Coulibaly: 62 passningar, xT 0.03CoulibalyAxel Laurent Angel Lambert Witsel: 39 passningar, xT -0.07Witsel
    Le Mans
    Rayan Bamba: 62 passningar, xT 0.11BambaIlhan Fakili: 61 passningar, xT 0.06FakiliNicolas Kocik: 59 passningar, xT 0.01KocikTheo Eyoum: 55 passningar, xT -0.02EyoumAlexandre Lauray: 47 passningar, xT 0.06LaurayLucas Buadés: 41 passningar, xT 0.13BuadésAdil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa: 38 passningar, xT 0.21BourabaaHarold Voyer: 33 passningar, xT 0.02VoyerDame Guèye: 23 passningar, xT -0.02GuèyeAntoine Rabillard: 22 passningar, xT 0.32RabillardYasser Larouci: 22 passningar, xT 0Larouci

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNiceLe Mans
    Points11
    xPoints1.31.7
    xG per match0.861.4
    xGA per match22.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.26
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.640.47
    Playing styleNiceLe Mans
    Build-up efficiency0.280.34
    Field tilt0.70.28
    xT per match1.20.75
    xTA per match1.31.3
    Won balls, offensive half3420
    Pressing intensity0.230.25
    Pressing efficiency0.230.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.24
    Entries into the box per match197
    Entries into the box against1017
    Pass completion %0.850.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.80.67
    Passes per match607255
    Passes against per match444364
    Switches of play per match39.823.3
    Long balls per match4137
    Set piecesNiceLe Mans
    xG from free kicks00.06
    Corners per match6.63.3
    Corners against per match2.58.6
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.080.1
    First touch, offensive corners %0.460.57
    First touch, defensive corners %0.20.61
    OtherNiceLe Mans
    Throw-in control0.830.72
    The goalkeepersYehvann Diouf (Nice)Nicolas Kocik (Le Mans)
    Saves310
    Save %50%71%
    xG prevented28%56%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Nice vs Le Mans according to our model?

    The model gives Nice a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nice 41%, draw 27%, Le Mans 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.