Ligue 1Allianz Riviera, Nice25°12 km/h

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    NiceNice
    vs
    LorientLorient
    The model's lean: 2 · Lorient (38%)Soft draw
    Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

    Nice – Lorient · Ligue 1

    1 · Nice 35%X 27%38% Lorient · 2

    Analysis: Nice – Lorient

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    Lorient has the edge in this matchup, with a 38% probability of securing a win against Nice's 35%. This tension is underscored by a model that leans toward Lorient, despite Nice's unbeaten run against them since 2022. However, with only four head-to-head encounters, the sample size is small, and it's the current form and expected goals that carry more weight.

    Nice enters the match with an expected goals tally of 1.17, slightly behind Lorient's 1.35. This suggests a slight offensive tilt towards Lorient, but the gap isn't significant enough to predict a goal fest. The likelihood of a 1-1 draw sits at 13%, the most probable scoreline, with 0-1 and 1-0 trailing behind at 11% and 9%, respectively. With an over 2.5 goals probability of just 46% and both teams to score at 51%, this has the hallmarks of a tightly contested affair, teetering on the edge of a low-scoring draw.

    Lorient's potential to disrupt Nice's clean sheet streak and convert their expected goal advantage into tangible dominance offers the sharpest angle here. The away win is particularly enticing when paired with the attractive odds on offer. Bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 3.35 for a Lorient victory, revealing a significant 27% edge over the market value. This suggests a lucrative opportunity for punters willing to back an away upset.

    In assessing the likely outcome, a 1-1 draw feels most plausible, yet Lorient emerges as a tempting underdog bet, given the model's inclinations and the odds. Bettors should note the value in backing Lorient, particularly with the generous edge provided by the bookmakers, as the sharpest angle to exploit in this matchup.

    NiceNice
    Form DWWLD
    Key players
    • Khéphren Thuram-UlienCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.19
    • DanteCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.16
    • Jean-Clair TodiboCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.18
    LorientLorient
    Form LLLLW
    Key players
    • Romain FaivreFxG 0.07 · xT 0.22
    • Julien PonceauCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.13
    • Laurent AbergelCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.16

    Match prediction: Nice – Lorient

    Predicted score matrix

    Lorient →
    Nice →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.5%
    0–110.6%
    0–27.4%
    0–33.3%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–09.1%
    1–113.1%
    1–28.6%
    1–33.8%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–05.5%
    2–17.4%
    2–25.0%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–02.1%
    3–12.9%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-29%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,17–1,35
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @2.04EV+10%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.79

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Lorient or draw (X2)68%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.95

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Lorient or draw (X2)68%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Badredine Bouanani to score15%

    Combined probability

    6%

    Fair odds

    17.00

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Gaëtan Laborde to score31%
    • Laurent Abergel to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    43.25

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Lorient38% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+27%
    • 2 · Lorient38% probability@3.35BetssonEV+27%
    • 2 · Lorient38% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+27%
    Bookmaker1 · NiceX2 · Lorient
    Betsafe2.123.45
    EV+ 27%
    3.35
    Betsson2.123.45
    EV+ 27%
    3.35
    Nordicbet2.123.45
    EV+ 27%
    3.35

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 05:36

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Nice 2Draw 2Lorient 0
    Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

    When goals are scored and conceded — 2023
    Nice (40–29)
    Lorient (43–66)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Nice
    Jean-Clair Todibo: 325 passningar, xT 0.28TodiboDante: 322 passningar, xT 0.51DantePablo Rosario: 240 passningar, xT 0.64RosarioKhéphren Thuram-Ulien: 199 passningar, xT 0.11Thuram-UlienMelvin Bard: 187 passningar, xT 0.64BardMarcin Bułka: 158 passningar, xT 0.18BułkaAntoine Mendy: 144 passningar, xT 0.23MendyJeremie Boga: 116 passningar, xT 0.45BogaMohamed-Ali Cho: 67 passningar, xT 0.23ChoHicham Boudaoui: 65 passningar, xT -0.05BoudaouiMorgan Sanson: 65 passningar, xT 0.53Sanson
    Lorient
    Laurent Abergel: 214 passningar, xT 0.49AbergelJulien Ponceau: 169 passningar, xT 0.92PonceauJulien Laporte: 168 passningar, xT 0.48LaporteMontassar Talbi: 151 passningar, xT 0.3TalbiBenjamin Mendy: 147 passningar, xT 1.21MendyImran Louza: 141 passningar, xT 0.28LouzaNathaniel Adjei: 121 passningar, xT 0.16AdjeiTiemoué Bakayoko: 107 passningar, xT 0.06BakayokoYvon Mvogo: 87 passningar, xT 0.21MvogoSouleymane Touré: 82 passningar, xT 0.09TouréMohamed Bamba: 78 passningar, xT 0.45Bamba
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Nice
    Jean-Clair Todibo: 325 passningar, xT 0.28TodiboDante: 322 passningar, xT 0.51DantePablo Rosario: 240 passningar, xT 0.64RosarioKhéphren Thuram-Ulien: 199 passningar, xT 0.11Thuram-UlienMelvin Bard: 187 passningar, xT 0.64BardMarcin Bułka: 158 passningar, xT 0.18BułkaAntoine Mendy: 144 passningar, xT 0.23MendyJeremie Boga: 116 passningar, xT 0.45BogaMohamed-Ali Cho: 67 passningar, xT 0.23ChoHicham Boudaoui: 65 passningar, xT -0.05BoudaouiMorgan Sanson: 65 passningar, xT 0.53Sanson
    Lorient
    Laurent Abergel: 214 passningar, xT 0.49AbergelJulien Ponceau: 169 passningar, xT 0.92PonceauJulien Laporte: 168 passningar, xT 0.48LaporteMontassar Talbi: 151 passningar, xT 0.3TalbiBenjamin Mendy: 147 passningar, xT 1.21MendyImran Louza: 141 passningar, xT 0.28LouzaNathaniel Adjei: 121 passningar, xT 0.16AdjeiTiemoué Bakayoko: 107 passningar, xT 0.06BakayokoYvon Mvogo: 87 passningar, xT 0.21MvogoSouleymane Touré: 82 passningar, xT 0.09TouréMohamed Bamba: 78 passningar, xT 0.45Bamba
    The goalkeepersMarcin Bułka (Nice)Yvon Mvogo (Lorient)
    Saves78150
    Save %73%69%
    xG prevented45%42%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Nice vs Lorient according to our model?

    The model gives Lorient a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nice 35%, draw 27%, Lorient 38%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.