01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lyon or draw (X2)68%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Ligue 1Stade Jean-Bouin, Paris20°10 km/h
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Paris FCPossession controlvs
LyonPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Lyon (39%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.27 (+15 %)
Paris FC – Lyon · Ligue 1
1 · Paris FC 34%X 27%39% Lyon · 2
34%
27%
39%
Analysis: Paris FC – Lyon
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Two matches, two draws: that's the head-to-head history between Paris FC and Lyon since 2022. Yet, this small sample size doesn't overshadow Lyon's current edge in various metrics. The visitors lead in both points and expected points, suggesting a more effective use of their opportunities on the pitch. However, Paris FC's higher expected goals (xG) per match and lower expected goals against (xGA) hint at a team capable of controlling play and limiting opposition chances.
Paris FC operates with possession control, a style that might stifle Lyon's high press and disrupt their rhythm. Despite this, Lyon's slight edge in model probabilities (39% to Paris FC's 34%) and the most likely winning scoreline of 0-1 indicate their potential to exploit any lapse by the hosts. The expected goals tally, favoring Lyon slightly at 1.42 to Paris FC's 1.22, underscores a narrow advantage.
While the over/under 2.5 goals market sits finely balanced at 49%, suggesting no clear lean, the model hints at a likely 1-1 scoreline. Both teams to score is also slightly favored at 54%, reflecting the possibility of at least one goal each. It's a matchup where both defenses have room to be breached, but not easily overrun.
The most intriguing betting angle emerges from the value found in the under 0.5 goals market. Though highly unlikely, the odds of 15.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 12% edge given the model's 7% probability. A risky play, but with such high odds, it's a calculated shot worth considering for those seeking a long-shot payout.
Paris FCForm LWDWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #17xP/match #1Points #8
Key players
- Ilan KebbalRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.10
- Lassine Fanta Mady SinayokoFxG 1.04 · xT 0.03
- Otávio Ataide da SilvaRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
LyonForm LLWDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #11xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Lois OpendaFxG 0.98 · xT 0.06
- Corentin TolissoLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.27
- Ernest NuamahRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Paris FC – Lyon
Predicted score matrix
Lyon →
Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–19.8%
0–27.2%
0–33.4%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–08.4%
1–112.7%
1–28.8%
1–34.1%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–05.3%
2–17.6%
2–25.4%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.2%
3–13.1%
3–22.2%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,22–1,42
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,607%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@2.27EV+12%
Over 2,549%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lyon or draw (X2)68%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Afonso Bastardo Moreira to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Moses Daddy-Ajala Simon to score25%
- Tyler Scott Morton to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.551% probability@2.27PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@15.00BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@15.00BetssonEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Paris FC | X | 2 · Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.58 | 3.45 | EV+ 1% 2.58 |
| Betsson | 2.58 | 3.45 | EV+ 1% 2.58 |
| Nordicbet | 2.58 | 3.45 | EV+ 1% 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | EV+ 2% 3.72 | EV+ 1% 2.58 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:32
Odds movement
10 %
39 %34 %
2.62 → 2.63
X+2 %
28 %23 %
3.66 → 3.72
2+3 %
40 %35 %
2.51 → 2.58
Over 2,5-1 %
59 %54 %
1.68 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesParis FC 0Draw 2Lyon 0
Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Paris FC
Lyon
Paris FC (6–2)
Lyon (6–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Paris FC
Lyon
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Paris FC
Lyon
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Paris FC | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 7 |
| xPoints | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| xG per match | 2 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 0.67 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Paris FC | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 0.69 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.83 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 6 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 21 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.86 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 580 | 427 |
| Passes against per match | 522 | 295 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.9 | 47 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Paris FC | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 2 | 6.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.28 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.53 |
| Other | Paris FC | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.43 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Kevin Trapp (Paris FC) | Dominik Greif (Lyon) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 5 |
| Save % | 82% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 71% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Paris FC vs Lyon according to our model?
The model gives Lyon a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Paris FC 34%, draw 27%, Lyon 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.