01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lens or draw (X2)71%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Ligue 1Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg21°0,6 mm19 km/h
Läs på svenska
StrasbourgLow block & directvs
LensBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Lens (44%)Best value by the model: 1 · Strasbourg @ 3.66 (+7 %)
Strasbourg – Lens · Ligue 1
1 · Strasbourg 29%X 27%44% Lens · 2
29%
27%
44%
Analysis: Strasbourg – Lens
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Strasbourg and Lens have squared off just four times since 2022, each side claiming a victory and splitting the remaining two matches in draws. However, beneath this even record lies a stark contrast in their expected goals (xG) metrics. Strasbourg's average xG per match sits at a mere 0.21, dwarfed by Lens's impressive 3.6. This massive disparity suggests that Lens have been far more threatening in their approach and execution, overshadowing the parity suggested by their head-to-head results.
Lens's current form further emphasizes their edge. With three points compared to Strasbourg's none, the visitors seem poised to capitalize on their momentum. The xPoints calculation supports this narrative, as Lens's 2.2 xPoints starkly contrasts with Strasbourg's 0.3. These figures indicate that even if Strasbourg manages to hold their ground momentarily, Lens's superior ability to create and convert chances could tip the scales.
Strasbourg's home advantage, with a 56% win rate across 34 matches, should offer some consolation. Yet, it's difficult to ignore the model's lean towards Lens, who are given a 44% chance of victory. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 reflect the belief in a competitive match, but with Lens slightly favored to edge it. The high expected goals for both sides also align with a 59% probability for over 2.5 goals, suggesting a match that may see its share of action.
For those seeking value, Strasbourg's odds of 3.45 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a slight edge according to the model's 29% win prediction. While this represents only a marginal 1% advantage, it may entice punters banking on the hosts to defy the odds and leverage their home turf.
StrasbourgForm LDWWL
League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #18xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Joaquín PanichelliFxG 0.54 · xT 0.02
- Diego MoreiraRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
- Algot Sebastian NanasiLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.09
LensForm DWLWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #12xT #1xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Florian Tristán Mariano ThauvinRWxG 1.52 · xT 0.42
- Matthieu UdolLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
- Yassine Mohammed TitraouiCDMxG 0.00 · xT -0.02
Match prediction: Strasbourg – Lens
Predicted score matrix
Lens →
Strasbourg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–17.9%
0–27.2%
0–34.2%
0–4+2.7%
1
1–05.9%
1–111.1%
1–29.4%
1–35.5%
1–4+3.5%
2
2–04.1%
2–17.1%
2–26.2%
2–33.6%
2–4+2.3%
3
3–01.8%
3–13.1%
3–22.7%
3–31.6%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.3%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.0-27%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,31–1,74
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.26
Over 2,559%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lens or draw (X2)71%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Adrien Thomasson to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Joaquín Panichelli to score27%
- Pierre-Ismaëlo Ganiou to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Strasbourg29% probability@3.66PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Strasbourg | X | 2 · Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betsson | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Nordicbet | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 7% 3.66 | 3.43 | 2.11 |
Odds updated 25 Aug, 13:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
29 %24 %
3.61 → 3.66
X+1 %
31 %26 %
3.39 → 3.43
20 %
48 %43 %
2.12 → 2.11
Over 2,50 %
60 %55 %
1.68 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 25/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesStrasbourg 1Draw 2Lens 1
Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Strasbourg win 56% of their home matches all-time (34 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Strasbourg
Lens
Strasbourg (0–4)
Lens (5–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Strasbourg
Lens
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Strasbourg
Lens
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Strasbourg | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| xPoints | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| xG per match | 0.21 | 3.6 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0 | 0.42 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.1 |
| Playing style | Strasbourg | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.25 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.38 | 2.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.89 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 12 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 275 | 394 |
| Passes against per match | 633 | 331 |
| Switches of play per match | 12 | 20 |
| Long balls per match | 18 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Strasbourg | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 3.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 6.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| Other | Strasbourg | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| The goalkeepers | Filip Jørgensen (Strasbourg) | Souleymane Sagnan (Lens) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 2 |
| Save % | 50% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 21% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Strasbourg vs Lens according to our model?
The model gives Lens a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Strasbourg 29%, draw 27%, Lens 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.