Ligue 1Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse20°11 km/h

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    ToulouseToulousePossession control
    vs
    Le HavreLe HavreCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Toulouse (49%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.64 (+10 %)

    Toulouse – Le Havre · Ligue 1

    1 · Toulouse 49%X 30%21% Le Havre · 2

    Analysis: Toulouse – Le Havre

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: In the limited head-to-head encounters since 2022, Toulouse holds a slight advantage over Le Havre with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. While this sample is small, it still hints at a performance disparity aligned with current season trends. The hosts' possession control strategy has translated into more effective xPoints (4.4) compared to their opponents (2.7). Meanwhile, Le Havre's counter-attacking style might find limited success against a well-organized Toulouse side.

    The expected goals (xG) analysis underscores Toulouse's attacking potential. Averaging 1.8 xG per match compared to Le Havre's 1.2, the home team appears more likely to break through defensively. Additionally, Toulouse concedes fewer expected goals against (xGA), reinforcing their defensive edge with a 1.5 average compared to Le Havre's 2.0. The model sees a probable victory for the hosts, rating Toulouse's chances at 49% against a 21% likelihood for Le Havre, with a draw sitting at 30%.

    Interestingly, the numbers show a nearly equal chance for both a 1-1 and a 1-0 scoreline (12%). This duality reflects a cautious outlook in terms of goal tallies. With an over 2.5 goals probability at 47% and both teams to score at 49%, it signals a match likely to hover around one or two goals, not a high-scoring showdown.

    Given Toulouse's superior xG, xGA, and expected points, backing the hosts looks like the more model-aligned outcome. The model's lean towards a 1-0 or 2-0 result dovetails with a modest goal count, suggesting an under 2.5 goals bet aligns well with the figures.

    ToulouseToulouse
    Form WWLDL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #14xP/match #6Points #17
    Key players
    • Jacen Rex Orlando Russell-RoweFxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
    • Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr.CDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.23
    • Santiago HidalgoLWxG 0.44 · xT -0.01
    Le HavreLe Havre
    Form LWLDL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #8xP/match #17Points #16
    Key players
    • Ally SamattaFxG 0.31 · xT 0.10
    • Simon EbonogCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
    • Enzo Koffi VinetteLWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.16

    Match prediction: Toulouse – Le Havre

    Predicted score matrix

    Le Havre →
    Toulouse →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.2%
    0–17.2%
    0–23.6%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–012.1%
    1–112.3%
    1–25.7%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.8%
    2–19.5%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.2%
    3–15.0%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.9%
    4+–12.8%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,58–0,96
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,553%
    @1.88
    Over 2,547%
    @1.95

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Toulouse to win49%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Toulouse to win49%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%
    • Djibril Sidibé to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%
    • Issa Soumaré to score24%
    • Lucas Gourna-Douath to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw30% probability@3.64PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • X · Draw30% probability@3.50BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • X · Draw30% probability@3.50BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · ToulouseX2 · Le Havre
    Betsafe1.82
    EV+ 6%
    3.50    		4.30
    Betsson1.82
    EV+ 6%
    3.50    		4.30
    Nordicbet1.82
    EV+ 6%
    3.50    		4.30
    Pinnacle1.81
    EV+ 10%
    3.64    		4.34

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 07:38

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Toulouse 2Draw 1Le Havre 1
    Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Toulouse
    Le Havre
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Toulouse (2–5)
    Le Havre (2–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Toulouse
    Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr.: 175 passningar, xT 0.47Jr.Mark Irwin Robert Alexander McKenzie: 172 passningar, xT 0.09McKenzieRasmus Nicolaisen: 141 passningar, xT 0.09NicolaisenGuillaume Restes: 105 passningar, xT -0.01RestesChrist Tapé: 99 passningar, xT 0.41TapéNiklas Schmidt: 91 passningar, xT 0.42SchmidtThomas Jørgensen: 76 passningar, xT 0.17JørgensenRafik Messali: 70 passningar, xT 0.07MessaliAlexis Vossah: 53 passningar, xT 0.03VossahIsmail Diallo: 46 passningar, xT 0.11DialloGnantin Yann-Alexandre Gboho: 41 passningar, xT 0.08Gboho
    Le Havre
    Ayumu Seko: 118 passningar, xT 0.44SekoMichael Amir Junior Richardson: 108 passningar, xT 0.43RichardsonSimon Ebonog: 105 passningar, xT 0.12EbonogLionel Mpasi-Nzau: 95 passningar, xT 0.06Mpasi-NzauAhmed Touba: 79 passningar, xT 0.24ToubaRassoul Kader Ndiaye: 75 passningar, xT 0.32NdiayeJunior Mwanga: 67 passningar, xT 0.08MwangaTimothee Pembele: 54 passningar, xT 0.15PembeleEnzo Koffi Vinette: 49 passningar, xT 0.16VinetteVincent Julien Sasso: 42 passningar, xT 0.07SassoDjibril Ouziad: 36 passningar, xT 0.18Ouziad
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Toulouse
    Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr.: 175 passningar, xT 0.47Jr.Mark Irwin Robert Alexander McKenzie: 172 passningar, xT 0.09McKenzieRasmus Nicolaisen: 141 passningar, xT 0.09NicolaisenGuillaume Restes: 105 passningar, xT -0.01RestesChrist Tapé: 99 passningar, xT 0.41TapéNiklas Schmidt: 91 passningar, xT 0.42SchmidtThomas Jørgensen: 76 passningar, xT 0.17JørgensenRafik Messali: 70 passningar, xT 0.07MessaliAlexis Vossah: 53 passningar, xT 0.03VossahIsmail Diallo: 46 passningar, xT 0.11DialloGnantin Yann-Alexandre Gboho: 41 passningar, xT 0.08Gboho
    Le Havre
    Ayumu Seko: 118 passningar, xT 0.44SekoMichael Amir Junior Richardson: 108 passningar, xT 0.43RichardsonSimon Ebonog: 105 passningar, xT 0.12EbonogLionel Mpasi-Nzau: 95 passningar, xT 0.06Mpasi-NzauAhmed Touba: 79 passningar, xT 0.24ToubaRassoul Kader Ndiaye: 75 passningar, xT 0.32NdiayeJunior Mwanga: 67 passningar, xT 0.08MwangaTimothee Pembele: 54 passningar, xT 0.15PembeleEnzo Koffi Vinette: 49 passningar, xT 0.16VinetteVincent Julien Sasso: 42 passningar, xT 0.07SassoDjibril Ouziad: 36 passningar, xT 0.18Ouziad

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceToulouseLe Havre
    Points11
    xPoints4.42.7
    xG per match1.81.2
    xGA per match1.52
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.450.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.40.54
    Playing styleToulouseLe Havre
    Build-up efficiency0.310.29
    Field tilt0.520.49
    xT per match0.851.1
    xTA per match0.90.88
    Won balls, offensive half2531
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.260.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.28
    Entries into the box per match1614
    Entries into the box against1213
    Pass completion %0.780.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.7
    Passes per match399329
    Passes against per match401343
    Switches of play per match28.723.3
    Long balls per match3333
    Set piecesToulouseLe Havre
    xG from free kicks0.070.05
    Corners per match4.75.6
    Corners against per match4.74.6
    xG per corner0.070.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.920
    First touch, defensive corners %0.790.5
    OtherToulouseLe Havre
    Throw-in control0.750.62
    The goalkeepersGuillaume Restes (Toulouse)Lionel Mpasi-Nzau (Le Havre)
    Saves919
    Save %69%83%
    xG prevented64%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Toulouse
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Le Havre
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Toulouse vs Le Havre according to our model?

    The model gives Toulouse a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Toulouse 49%, draw 30%, Le Havre 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.