Toulouse vs Lille: Prediction & Odds (3 Sept 2026)

Ligue 13 September 2026Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse24°10 km/h

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ToulousePossession control

LilleBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Lille (51%)

1 · Toulouse 23%X 26%51% Lille · 2

23%

26%

51%

Analysis: Toulouse – Lille

Anna Karlsson · 31 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

The spotlight shines on Lille's impressive run against Toulouse, having won all four encounters since 2022. While this is a small sample size, it underscores Lille's recent dominance in head-to-head matchups. However, the statistical battle is more nuanced. The expected goals (xG) metrics hint at a closer contest, with Toulouse generating slightly more xG per match (1.3) compared to Lille (1.2).

Digging deeper, Toulouse's style leans towards possession control, a tactic that could either frustrate Lille’s balanced and physical approach or lead them into traps set by Lille's counter-attack. The clash of styles adds a layer of unpredictability. Despite their struggles in actual points, Lille also holds the edge in expected points (xPoints) per match (3.3 vs 2.5), reinforcing their favored status.

The model gives Lille a 51% probability of winning, with the most probable outcome being a 1-1 draw at 12%, closely followed by Lille winning 0-1 at 11%. This indicates that while Lille is favored, a tight contest is expected. The expected goals tally—Toulouse 1.08 to Lille’s 1.58—leans towards the visitors but reflects a match where both defenses will have their tasks cut out.

For those looking for betting angles, the over 2.5 goals market sits at an even 50%, while both teams to score comes in at 53%. Given the historical dominance of Lille and the model's lean, an away win seems the sensible pick, but the odds aren't offering substantial value. However, Unibet provides Lille to win at odds of 2.10, which presents a potential value bet for those siding with the model's lean.

In conclusion, expect a hard-fought battle where Lille’s previous edge might tilt the scales. A 0-1 or 1-2 scoreline seems plausible, with goals market finely balanced given the tactical dynamics at play.

Toulouse

Form DWWLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #11xT #18xP/match #12Points #16

Key players

Jacen Rex Orlando Russell-RoweFxG 0.14 · xT 0.00
Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr.CDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
Gnantin Yann-Alexandre GbohoLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.05

Lille

Form DWLWD

League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #15xP/match #6Points #2

Key players

Olivier GiroudFxG 0.38 · xT 0.04
Hákon Arnar HaraldssonCMxG 0.37 · xT 0.18
Tiago Carvalho SantosRWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Toulouse – Lille

Predicted score matrix

Lille →

Toulouse →

0–07.4%

0–110.7%

0–28.7%

0–34.6%

0–4+2.6%

1–07.2%

1–112.3%

1–29.4%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.8%

2–04.1%

2–16.5%

2–25.1%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.5%

3–01.5%

3–12.3%

3–21.8%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,08–1,58

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.82

Over 2,550%

@2.07EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lille to win51%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lille to win51%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Soriba Diaoune to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Soriba Diaoune to score30%
Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr. to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lille51% probability@2.25Bet365EV+16%reference odds
2 · Lille51% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
2 · Lille51% probability@2.18BetssonEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Toulouse	X	2 · Lille
Bet365	3.10	3.25	EV+ 16% 2.25
Betsafe	3.35	3.30	EV+ 12% 2.18
Betsson	3.35	3.30	EV+ 12% 2.18
Nordicbet	3.35	3.30	EV+ 12% 2.18
Pinnacle	3.52	3.43	EV+ 11% 2.16

Odds updated 1 Sept, 16:35

Odds movement

1+1 %

30 %25 %

3.49 → 3.52

X+1 %

31 %26 %

3.38 → 3.43

20 %

47 %42 %

2.17 → 2.16

Over 2,50 %

49 %44 %

2.06 → 2.07

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Toulouse 0Draw 0Lille 4

Goals: 3–10 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Toulouse

Lille

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Toulouse (2–4)

Lille (4–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Toulouse

Lille

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Toulouse

Lille

The teams in numbers

Performance	Toulouse	Lille
Points	1	4
xPoints	2.5	3.3
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.5	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.25

Playing style	Toulouse	Lille
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.42	0.24
xT per match	0.65	0.79
xTA per match	1.1	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	23	23
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.19
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	14	18
Pass completion %	0.78	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.75
Passes per match	372	291
Passes against per match	400	590
Switches of play per match	25.2	11.7
Long balls per match	29	28

Set pieces	Toulouse	Lille
xG from free kicks	0.1	0
Corners per match	4	1.5
Corners against per match	6.1	6.6
xG per corner	0.1	0
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.86	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.62

Other	Toulouse	Lille
Throw-in control	0.68	0.33

The goalkeepers	Guillaume Restes (Toulouse)	Berke Özer (Lille)
Saves	6	4
Save %	60%	67%
xG prevented	56%	82%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Toulouse vs Lille according to our model?

The model gives Lille a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Toulouse 23%, draw 26%, Lille 51%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.