01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Troyes to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Ligue 1Stade de l'Aube, Troyes21°12 km/h
Läs på svenska
TroyesPossession & high press2–6
StrasbourgLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Troyes (50%)
Troyes – Strasbourg · Ligue 1
1 · Troyes 50%X 25%26% Strasbourg · 2
50%
25%
26%
Analysis: Troyes – Strasbourg
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Strasbourg's defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 2.2 expected goals against (xGA) per match, while Troyes' attacking approach is bolstered by their high press, which could exploit this vulnerability. Despite Strasbourg holding a slight points advantage, the underlying numbers suggest the home side's style is better suited to capitalize on Strasbourg's defensive frailties.
The model assigns Troyes a 50% probability of winning, significantly higher than the market odds, which offer enticing value at 3.05 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This suggests a substantial edge for those backing the home team, with a 51% edge according to the model's evaluation.
While points on the board show Strasbourg ahead, xPoints tell a different story: Troyes with 2.6 compared to Strasbourg's 1.1. This indicates that the hosts have been somewhat unlucky not to convert their performances into more points. Meanwhile, Troyes generate more expected goals (1.1) than their visitors (0.85), emphasizing their potential to break down what has been a porous Strasbourg defense.
Expected goals for the match lean towards a tight contest, with Troyes at 1.54 and Strasbourg at 1.28, but the home side’s attacking edge could make the difference. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 and 2-1, both favoring a narrow result, but the over 2.5 goals market sits at 54%, hinting at a slightly higher chance of a more open game.
With Troyes positioned as a slight favorite and the value clearly on their side, a 2-1 win for the hosts seems plausible. Betting angles strongly favor Troyes at odds of 3.05, offering a compelling play for those looking to capitalize on what the market may have overlooked.
TroyesForm DD
League ranking xG #15xGA #7xT #8xP/match #11Points #12
Key players
- Renaud RipartFxG 0.80 · xT 0.05
- Adrien MonfrayCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
- Merwan IfnaouiRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
StrasbourgForm DWWLW
League ranking xG #17xGA #16xT #12xP/match #18Points #9
Key players
- Gessime YassineFxG 0.27 · xT 0.11
- Jacobo Ortega CondeFxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
- Algot Sebastian NanasiLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.24
Final score
2 – 6
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Troyes 50% · Draw 25% · Strasbourg 26%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - TroyesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,89fair 8,00+11 %
MissMatchresultat - StrasbourgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,48fair 11,69-36 %
HitMatch prediction: Troyes – Strasbourg
Predicted score matrix
Strasbourg →
Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–17.3%
0–24.8%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–08.9%
1–112.1%
1–27.5%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.1%
2–19.1%
2–25.8%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.7%
3–23.0%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–12.5%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,54–1,28
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.03
Over 2,554%
@1.86
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Troyes to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Tawfik Bentayeb to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Tawfik Bentayeb to score29%
- Rafael Filipe Gonçalves Soares Luís to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Troyes50% probability@2.96PinnacleEV+47%reference odds
- 1 · Troyes50% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+44%reference odds
- 1 · Troyes50% probability@2.90BetssonEV+44%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Troyes | X | 2 · Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 44% 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.42 |
| Betsson | EV+ 44% 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.42 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 44% 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 47% 2.96 | 3.44 | 2.49 |
Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36
Odds movement
1-5 %
34 %29 %
3.13 → 2.96
X+1 %
30 %25 %
3.41 → 3.44
2+7 %
43 %38 %
2.33 → 2.49
Over 2,5-2 %
54 %49 %
1.91 → 1.86
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Troyes
Strasbourg
Troyes (2–1)
Strasbourg (2–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Troyes
Strasbourg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Troyes
Strasbourg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Troyes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 3 |
| xPoints | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.85 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.05 | 0.5 |
| Playing style | Troyes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.9 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 34 | 16 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.15 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 332 | 336 |
| Passes against per match | 631 | 492 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.1 | 15.3 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 21 |
| Set pieces | Troyes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 2.1 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.33 |
| Other | Troyes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Patrick Thomas Beach (Troyes) | Filip Jørgensen (Strasbourg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 10 |
| Save % | 83% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 90% | 27% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Troyes vs Strasbourg according to our model?
The model gives Troyes a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Troyes 50%, draw 25%, Strasbourg 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.