Ligue 2Stade de la Libération, Boulogne-sur-Mer20°30 km/h

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    BoulogneBoulogne
    1–1
    DijonDijon
    The model's lean: 2 · Dijon (46%)

    Boulogne – Dijon · Ligue 2

    1 · Boulogne 24%X 30%46% Dijon · 2

    Analysis: Boulogne – Dijon

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT CORRECTED:

    With Dijon holding a 46% probability of victory, this Ligue 2 clash against Boulogne is set to lean in favor of the visitors. The model suggests that Dijon's steadiness might tip the scales, supported by expected goals of 1.20 against Boulogne's 0.87. The hosts' defense will be under pressure, anticipating a tactical battle where chances may be slim.

    A tight affair is on the cards, reflected by the most likely scorelines: 0-1 at 15%, 1-1 at 14%, and 0-0 at 13%. These figures illustrate a game where the first goal could be pivotal. With only a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals, the match is expected to be low-scoring, highlighting the importance of tactical discipline and defensive solidity.

    Dijon are presented with a strong value bet at odds 2.65 from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, each offering a 22% edge over the implied probability. This value angle underscores the match's potential for the visitors to capitalize on any Boulogne lapses.

    In conclusion, while the match could see Boulogne put up a resilient front, the numbers suggest a narrow Dijon win, likely 0-1. The under 2.5 goals market looks appealing given the low expected goal count. The real opportunity lies in the value bet on Dijon to win, a calculated edge that stands out prominently before kickoff.

    BoulogneBoulogne
    Form LDLDD
    Key players
    • Abdel HbouchFxG 0.32 · xT 0.13
    • Benjamin BesicFxG 0.32 · xT 0.09
    • Joffrey BultelFxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
    DijonDijon
    Form DLDL
    Key players
    • Adel LembezatCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.44
    • Alexis N'TamackFxG 0.12 · xT 0.03
    • Ismaïl BouleghchaRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.20
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Boulogne 24% · Draw 30% · Dijon 46%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Dijon FCOBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,69fair 15,54-31 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - US BoulogneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,19fair 28,88-58 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Boulogne – Dijon

    Predicted score matrix

    Dijon →
    Boulogne →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–013.0%
    0–114.8%
    0–29.1%
    0–33.6%
    0–4+1.4%
    1
    1–010.6%
    1–113.6%
    1–27.9%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–04.8%
    2–15.7%
    2–23.4%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–01.4%
    3–11.7%
    3–21.0%
    3–30.4%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.4%
    4+–20.3%
    4+–30.1%
    4+–4+0.0%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.0-115%
    2. 2.1-114%
    3. 3.0-013%
    4. 4.1-011%
    5. 5.0-29%
    Expected goals
    0,87–1,20
    Both teams to score
    41%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,1
    Under 2,566%
    @1.52EV+0%
    Over 2,534%
    @2.32

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Dijon to win46%
    • Under 3.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Dijon to win46%
    • Under 2.5 goals66%
    • Julien Domingues to score32%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score41%
    • Over 2.5 goals34%
    • Julien Domingues to score32%
    • Paul Bellon to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Dijon46% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
    • 2 · Dijon46% probability@2.52BetssonEV+16%reference odds
    • 2 · Dijon46% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BoulogneX2 · Dijon
    Betsafe2.852.95
    EV+ 16%
    2.52
    Betsson2.852.95
    EV+ 16%
    2.52
    Nordicbet2.852.95
    EV+ 16%
    2.52

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 08:37

    Odds movement

    1+8 %
    36 %31 %

    2.65 → 2.85

    X-2 %
    33 %28 %

    3.00 → 2.95

    2-4 %
    38 %33 %

    2.62 → 2.52

    Betsafe · 9 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Boulogne
    Dijon
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Boulogne (1–2)
    Dijon (4–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Boulogne
    Theo Brusco: 155 passningar, xT 0.16BruscoJulien Boyer: 132 passningar, xT 0.69BoyerBlondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu: 120 passningar, xT 0.17NoukeuAntoine Kerriou: 114 passningar, xT 0.12KerriouDemba Thiam: 110 passningar, xT 0.2ThiamNolan Binet: 83 passningar, xT 0.09BinetAbdel Hbouch: 78 passningar, xT 0.17HbouchAurélien Platret: 70 passningar, xT 0.59PlatretJonas Serge Martin: 70 passningar, xT 0.02MartinJoffrey Bultel: 57 passningar, xT 0.06BultelTheo Epailly: 35 passningar, xT 0.1Epailly
    Dijon
    Quentin Bernard: 253 passningar, xT 0.5BernardLenny Stéphane Lacroix: 252 passningar, xT 0.51LacroixPaul Bellon: 204 passningar, xT 0.57BellonIsmaïl Bouleghcha: 179 passningar, xT 0.56BouleghchaBrandon Nsimba Nsimba Ndezi: 159 passningar, xT 0.29NdeziYlan Aka: 128 passningar, xT 0.24AkaSamy Olivier Chouchane: 109 passningar, xT 0.67ChouchaneJordan Marie: 101 passningar, xT 0.45MarieAdel Lembezat: 91 passningar, xT 0.46LembezatPaul Delecroix: 77 passningar, xT 0.12DelecroixMickaël Jose Barreto: 67 passningar, xT 0.19Barreto
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Boulogne
    Theo Brusco: 155 passningar, xT 0.16BruscoJulien Boyer: 132 passningar, xT 0.69BoyerBlondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu: 120 passningar, xT 0.17NoukeuAntoine Kerriou: 114 passningar, xT 0.12KerriouDemba Thiam: 110 passningar, xT 0.2ThiamNolan Binet: 83 passningar, xT 0.09BinetAbdel Hbouch: 78 passningar, xT 0.17HbouchAurélien Platret: 70 passningar, xT 0.59PlatretJonas Serge Martin: 70 passningar, xT 0.02MartinJoffrey Bultel: 57 passningar, xT 0.06BultelTheo Epailly: 35 passningar, xT 0.1Epailly
    Dijon
    Quentin Bernard: 253 passningar, xT 0.5BernardLenny Stéphane Lacroix: 252 passningar, xT 0.51LacroixPaul Bellon: 204 passningar, xT 0.57BellonIsmaïl Bouleghcha: 179 passningar, xT 0.56BouleghchaBrandon Nsimba Nsimba Ndezi: 159 passningar, xT 0.29NdeziYlan Aka: 128 passningar, xT 0.24AkaSamy Olivier Chouchane: 109 passningar, xT 0.67ChouchaneJordan Marie: 101 passningar, xT 0.45MarieAdel Lembezat: 91 passningar, xT 0.46LembezatPaul Delecroix: 77 passningar, xT 0.12DelecroixMickaël Jose Barreto: 67 passningar, xT 0.19Barreto
    The goalkeepersBlondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu (Boulogne)Paul Delecroix (Dijon)
    Saves1312
    Save %87%71%
    xG prevented77%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Boulogne
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dijon
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Boulogne vs Dijon according to our model?

    The model gives Dijon a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Boulogne 24%, draw 30%, Dijon 46%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 15% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 34% and under at 66%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 41% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    MontpellierMontpellier
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.