01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Clermont or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Ligue 2Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand16°11 km/h
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Clermontvs
BoulogneThe model's lean: 1 · Clermont (40%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.20 (+0 %)
Clermont – Boulogne · Ligue 2
1 · Clermont 40%X 29%31% Boulogne · 2
40%
29%
31%
Analysis: Clermont – Boulogne
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
A narrow edge for the hosts emerges as Clermont and Boulogne prepare to face off, with Clermont given a 40% win probability by the model. This slight favoritism is bolstered by their unbeaten head-to-head record since 2023, albeit from a small two-game sample. Still, this matchup looks more like a chess match than a fireworks display.
Predictive metrics suggest a tight contest: expected goals of 1.33 for Clermont and 1.18 for Boulogne underscore the potential for a close affair. The most likely outcomes — 1-1 and 1-0 — hint at a game where defenses could hold sway. With a 46% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals, the model leans slightly towards a lower scoring encounter. Yet it's close enough to keep bettors on their toes.
Both teams to score sits at 51%, reflecting a fairly even-handed battle. However, Clermont's slight edge and home advantage could tilt the balance towards a 1-0 victory, making their 10% probability of that result noteworthy. It's a precarious margin, but one that might just define the game.
While the overall outlook is conservative, the market presents an intriguing opportunity. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.45 for over 2.5 goals, a bet identified by the model as having a 12% edge. This suggests a worthwhile punt for those chasing value in what appears to be a tightly wound fixture.
In a clash that promises to be more about prudence than panache, the sharpest angle lies in the potential for the unexpected via those value odds on the over — a calculated risk against the backdrop of a game likely dominated by defensive discipline.
ClermontForm DLDDD
Key players
- Ivan MbahiaRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
- Ousmane DiopRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
- Vital Manuel N'SimbaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.23
BoulogneForm DLDDD
Key players
- Abdel HbouchFxG 0.32 · xT 0.14
- Benjamin BesicFxG 0.38 · xT 0.09
- Theo EpaillyLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Clermont – Boulogne
Predicted score matrix
Boulogne →
Clermont →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.6%
0–19.3%
0–25.7%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.5%
1–113.2%
1–27.5%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.2%
2–18.5%
2–25.0%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.2%
3–13.7%
3–22.2%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,33–1,18
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.70
Over 2,546%
@2.20EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Clermont or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Christ Dorian Okou to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Christ Dorian Okou to score26%
- Joffrey Bultel to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.546% probability@2.20PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Clermont | X | 2 · Boulogne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.38 | 3.05 | 2.90 |
| Betsson | 2.38 | 3.05 | 2.90 |
| Nordicbet | 2.38 | 3.05 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.18 | 3.06 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 10:21
Odds movement
1+5 %
41 %36 %
2.37 → 2.50
X+3 %
33 %28 %
3.09 → 3.18
2-4 %
33 %28 %
3.18 → 3.06
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesClermont 1Draw 1Boulogne 0
Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Clermont
Boulogne
Clermont (3–5)
Boulogne (2–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Clermont
Boulogne
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Clermont
Boulogne
| The goalkeepers | Theo Guivarch (Clermont) | Blondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu (Boulogne) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 19 |
| Save % | 62% | 86% |
| xG prevented | 23% | 77% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Clermont vs Boulogne according to our model?
The model gives Clermont a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Clermont 40%, draw 29%, Boulogne 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.