Clermont vs Dijon: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

Ligue 221 August 2026Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand20°0,7 mm16 km/h

Clermont

Dijon

The model's lean: 2 · Dijon (40%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Clermont 31%X 29%40% Dijon · 2

31%

29%

40%

Analysis: Clermont – Dijon

Marcus Johansson · 17 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The numbers speak of a tight contest, but one where Dijon has the edge. Holding a 40% chance of victory compared to Clermont Foot's 31%, the betting model tips towards the visitors. This clash isn't just about probabilities, though; it's a meeting of two sides with differing forms and ambitions. Despite the small sample size of head-to-head matchups, the narrative leans heavily on current trajectories and expected goals, with Dijon poised to pounce.

The most likely scorelines—1-1 (14%) and 0-1 (13%)—paint a picture of a game where goals are at a premium. Clermont Foot's expected goals stand at a modest 1.03, with Dijon slightly better at 1.17, suggesting a contest where chances might be scarce and finishing could be crucial. The model's 38% lean towards under 2.5 goals aligns with this outlook, hinting at a match where defences might just outshine the attackers.

Clermont Foot, playing at home, can rely on their familiarity with the ground, yet the numbers don't shy away from hinting that it's Dijon who are more likely to capitalize on the day's proceedings. The low 45% for both teams to score further underscores the idea of a potentially cagey affair, possibly decided by a solitary goal or a moment of brilliance.

Weather isn't a factor in this particular equation, leaving the focus squarely on the tactical setups and individual performances. With no wind or rain to dampen spirits or tactics, the game is set for the players to decide, albeit with a defensive bent.

For those with a betting brain, value shows its hand with Dijon at 2.75 odds on Bet365. The numbers aren't a guarantee, but they certainly make the case for Dijon being the side to back. A narrow 0-1 away win for Dijon seems to be where the smart money lies, with both under 2.5 goals and a Dijon clean sheet in play.

Clermont

Form DWWDL

Key players

Ethan Kena KabeyaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Yoann SalmierCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
Vital Manuel N'SimbaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Dijon

Form DL

Key players

Ismaïl BouleghchaRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.21
Brandon Nsimba Nsimba NdeziLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.01
Ylan AkaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Clermont – Dijon

Predicted score matrix

Dijon →

Clermont →

0–011.4%

0–112.5%

0–27.6%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.1%

1–011.0%

1–113.7%

1–27.8%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–05.9%

2–16.9%

2–24.0%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.0%

3–12.4%

3–21.4%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-113%
3.0-011%
4.1-011%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,03–1,17

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

011%

124%

227%

320%

411%

5+7%

Under 2,562%

@1.68EV+4%

Over 2,538%

@2.08

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Dijon or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Dijon or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals62%
Yanis Djamil Barka to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals38%
Yanis Djamil Barka to score23%
Paul Bellon to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Dijon40% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
2 · Dijon40% probability@2.62BetssonEV+5%reference odds
2 · Dijon40% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Clermont	X	2 · Dijon
Betsafe	2.55	3.15	EV+ 5% 2.62
Betsson	2.55	3.15	EV+ 5% 2.62
Nordicbet	2.55	3.15	EV+ 5% 2.62

Odds updated 19 Aug, 03:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Dijon win since 17 August — the odds have shortened from 2.85 to 2.62 (−8%).

1+5 %

40 %30 %

2.42 → 2.55

X+2 %

34 %24 %

3.10 → 3.15

2-8 %

41 %31 %

2.85 → 2.62

Over 2,50 %

50 %40 %

2.08 → 2.08

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Clermont

Dijon

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Clermont (1–3)

Dijon (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Clermont

Dijon

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Clermont

Dijon

The goalkeepers	Yoann Salmier (Clermont)	Lenny Stéphane Lacroix (Dijon)
Saves	3	8
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Clermont vs Dijon according to our model?

The model gives Dijon a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Clermont 31%, draw 29%, Dijon 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.