Clermont vs Sochaux: Prediction & Odds (28 Aug 2026)

Ligue 228 August 2026Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand21°13,8 mm19 km/h

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Clermont

0–0

Sochaux

The model's lean: 1 · Clermont (36%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sochaux @ 2.89 (+1 %)

1 · Clermont 36%X 30%35% Sochaux · 2

36%

30%

35%

Analysis: Clermont – Sochaux

Anna Karlsson · 26 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The razor-thin margin between Clermont and Sochaux is glaring, with probability models offering only a single percentage point more in favor of the hosts. What truly stands out here is Sochaux's slightly higher expected goals at 1.27 compared to Clermont's 1.06. This suggests that despite Clermont's home advantage, Sochaux might just have the offensive edge needed to tilt the scales in their favor.

However, the damp conditions — with 2.1 mm of rain forecast — could play a significant role in suppressing goal-scoring opportunities, which aligns with the modest 41% chance of the match exceeding 2.5 goals. Such weather often leads to more cautious play, potentially steering the game towards tighter scorelines. In fact, the most likely outcomes predicted are 1-1 and 0-1, reinforcing a low-scoring narrative.

With both teams showing minimal separation in their likelihood of securing a win, the draw at 30% becomes an intriguing prospect, particularly given the evenly matched nature of their chances.

Ultimately, while Clermont holds a slight edge in the model's lean, the combination of Sochaux's offensive potential and the weather's suppressive effect hints at a narrow victory for the visitors. A 1-0 win for Sochaux seems plausible, especially with the under 2.5 goals scenario being quite compelling.

Clermont

Form WWDLD

Key players

Vital Manuel N'SimbaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
Jean GrillotCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
Ethan Kena KabeyaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

Sochaux

Form LDW

Key players

Bendjaloud Salmata YoussoufRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Dalangunypole GomisLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Boubacar César FofanaLWBxG 0.14 · xT 0.04

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Clermont 36% · Draw 30% · Sochaux 35%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SochauxBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,16fair 12,61-19 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Clermont Foot 63Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,37fair 17,84-47 %

Miss

Match prediction: Clermont – Sochaux

Predicted score matrix

Sochaux →

Clermont →

0–010.1%

0–111.9%

0–27.8%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.4%

1–09.9%

1–113.5%

1–28.3%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–05.5%

2–17.0%

2–24.4%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.8%

3–01.9%

3–12.5%

3–21.6%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,06–1,27

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.69

Over 2,541%

@2.21

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Clermont or draw (1X)59%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Clermont or draw (1X)59%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Ilhan Fakili to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Kapitbafan Djoco to score25%
Julien Masson to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sochaux35% probability@2.89PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Clermont	X	2 · Sochaux
Bet365	2.40	2.90	2.75
Betsafe	2.52	3.10	2.72
Betsson	2.52	3.10	2.72
Nordicbet	2.52	3.10	2.72
Pinnacle	2.65	3.14	EV+ 1% 2.89

Odds updated 28 Aug, 08:30

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Clermont win since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 2.88 to 2.65 (−8%).

1-8 %

37 %32 %

2.88 → 2.65

X+2 %

33 %28 %

3.09 → 3.14

2+12 %

37 %32 %

2.59 → 2.89

Over 2,5-3 %

46 %41 %

2.27 → 2.21

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Clermont

Sochaux

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Clermont (2–4)

Sochaux (1–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Clermont

Sochaux

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Clermont

Sochaux

The goalkeepers	Theo Guivarch (Clermont)	Mehdi Jeannin (Sochaux)
Saves	6	15
Save %	60%	83%
xG prevented	18%	71%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Clermont

Fixtures, form & tips

Sochaux

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Clermont vs Sochaux according to our model?

The model gives Clermont a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Clermont 36%, draw 30%, Sochaux 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.