01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Dijon to win49%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Ligue 2Stade Gaston Gérard, Dijon17°13 km/h
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Dijonvs
LavalThe model's lean: 1 · Dijon (49%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.14 (+20 %)
Dijon – Laval · Ligue 2
1 · Dijon 49%X 28%23% Laval · 2
49%
28%
23%
Analysis: Dijon – Laval
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Dijon's 49% chance of victory stands out, underscoring their favored position against Laval on home soil. The hosts are projected to score 1.55 goals, compared to the visitors' 0.88, suggesting a relatively low-scoring affair. Most likely outcomes lean towards a 1-0 (13%) or 1-1 (12%) scoreline, with a 44% probability for over 2.5 goals. This indicates potential tightness in the encounter.
The small sample size in head-to-head encounters between these two sides means that current form and expected goals should weigh more heavily in assessing the likely outcome. Dijon appears to have the edge, supported by both the model's lean and the distribution of likely scorelines. Laval's modest 23% chance of winning suggests they might struggle to break through.
The sharpest betting angle emerges with the under 1.5 goals market, offering value at odds of 3.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome at 30%, providing a 4% edge. This underlines the expectation of a close, low-scoring game, making the under 1.5 goals an enticing proposition for value seekers.
DijonForm DLDLD
Key players
- Tyris DongFxG 0.37 · xT 0.00
- Alexis N'TamackFxG 0.11 · xT 0.02
- Ismaïl BouleghchaRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.20
LavalForm LWDLL
Key players
- Mathis HoudayerFxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
- Malik SelloukiRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
- Jules GaudinLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Dijon – Laval
Predicted score matrix
Laval →
Dijon →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.1%
0–17.4%
0–23.4%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–013.2%
1–112.4%
1–25.3%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.5%
2–19.3%
2–24.1%
2–31.2%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–05.4%
3–14.8%
3–22.1%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–03.0%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,55–0,88
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@2.14EV+13%
Over 2,544%
@1.74
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Dijon to win49%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Tyris Dong to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Tyris Dong to score28%
- Cyril Paul Mandouki to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.556% probability@2.14PinnacleEV+20%reference odds
- Under 1.530% probability@3.90BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- Under 1.530% probability@3.90BetssonEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dijon | X | 2 · Laval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.95 | 3.35 | 3.55 |
| Betsson | 1.95 | 3.35 | 3.55 |
| Nordicbet | 1.95 | 3.35 | 3.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | EV+ 8% 3.83 | 3.57 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 10:38
Odds movement
1+2 %
53 %43 %
1.94 → 1.99
X-1 %
31 %21 %
3.85 → 3.83
2+3 %
32 %22 %
3.47 → 3.57
Over 2,5-4 %
56 %46 %
1.81 → 1.74
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 05/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dijon
Laval
Dijon (5–7)
Laval (5–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dijon
Laval
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dijon
Laval
| The goalkeepers | Paul Delecroix (Dijon) | Mamadou Samassa (Laval) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 21 |
| Save % | 70% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 63% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dijon vs Laval according to our model?
The model gives Dijon a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dijon 49%, draw 28%, Laval 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.