01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Dunkerque to win57%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Ligue 2Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque20°0,8 mm31 km/h
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Dunkerque1–1
ClermontThe model's lean: 1 · Dunkerque (57%)
Dunkerque – Clermont · Ligue 2
1 · Dunkerque 57%X 24%19% Clermont · 2
57%
24%
19%
Analysis: Dunkerque – Clermont
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: A clash of tactical contrasts looms as Dunkerque hosts Clermont in Ligue 2, with the numbers clearly favoring the home side. Dunkerque’s 57% win probability, buoyed by their average expected goals of 1.70, suggests a dominant performance is likely. Conversely, Clermont’s paltry 0.89 expected goals underline their struggles on the road, and with only a 19% chance of victory, they face an uphill battle.
The narrow win margins and low-scoring forecasts reflect the pragmatic styles of both teams. Dunkerque typically exploits width and quick transitional play, looking to capitalize on defensive lapses. Clermont, however, has shown resilience in soaking up pressure and counter-attacking. The small head-to-head sample (four matches since 2023) tilts slightly in Dunkerque's favor with two wins, but this is less significant than Dunkerque's current statistical edge.
Most likely scorelines are telling: 1-0 and 2-0 favor Dunkerque, while a 1-1 draw also looms as a possibility. The expected goals suggest a cautious approach, and with the over 2.5 goals probability sitting just below 50%, a high-scoring match seems improbable. The chance of both teams finding the net is almost a coin flip at 49%, but Dunkerque’s superior attacking metrics could tip the balance in their favor.
For punters, the most compelling angle lies in the value on Dunkerque to win at odds of 1.75 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. The model’s rating of a 57% chance for the hosts means there’s zero edge, yet it's a playfully consistent option given Dunkerque's statistical superiority. Look for the hosts to edge a tight contest, likely in the realm of a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline, rewarding those who back the numbers.
DunkerqueForm LWDLL
Key players
- Egor PrutsevLWxG 0.60 · xT 0.18
- Thomas RobinetFxG 0.42 · xT 0.11
- Allan LinguetRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.19
ClermontForm WDLDD
Key players
- Ivan MbahiaRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
- Vital Manuel N'SimbaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
- Ethan Kena KabeyaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Dunkerque 57% · Draw 24% · Clermont 19%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - DunkerqueBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,82fair 7,53-23 %
MissMatchresultat - Clermont Foot 63Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,99fair 26,74-44 %
MissMatch prediction: Dunkerque – Clermont
Predicted score matrix
Clermont →
Dunkerque →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.8%
0–16.3%
0–23.0%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–012.4%
1–111.7%
1–25.1%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.8%
2–19.7%
2–24.3%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–06.1%
3–15.5%
3–22.4%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–13.4%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-012%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,70–0,89
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.91
Over 2,548%
@1.95
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Dunkerque to win57%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Thomas Robinet to score36%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Thomas Robinet to score36%
- Maximiliano Caufriez to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Dunkerque57% probability@1.82PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Dunkerque57% probability@1.75BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
- 1 · Dunkerque57% probability@1.75BetssonEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dunkerque | X | 2 · Clermont |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 0% 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Betsson | EV+ 0% 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 0% 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 1.82 | 3.69 | 4.51 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 11:37
Odds movement
1+6 %
57 %52 %
1.71 → 1.82
X-7 %
27 %22 %
3.95 → 3.69
2+2 %
24 %19 %
4.42 → 4.51
Over 2,5+4 %
53 %48 %
1.88 → 1.95
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesDunkerque 2Draw 1Clermont 1
Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dunkerque
Clermont
Dunkerque (7–8)
Clermont (2–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dunkerque
Clermont
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dunkerque
Clermont
| The goalkeepers | Maxence André Prévot (Dunkerque) | Theo Guivarch (Clermont) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 7 |
| Save % | 50% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 22% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dunkerque vs Clermont according to our model?
The model gives Dunkerque a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dunkerque 57%, draw 24%, Clermont 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.