01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Dunkerque or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Ligue 2Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque17°6,0 mm17 km/h
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Dunkerquevs
MontpellierThe model's lean: 1 · Dunkerque (42%)
Dunkerque – Montpellier · Ligue 2
1 · Dunkerque 42%X 27%31% Montpellier · 2
42%
27%
31%
Analysis: Dunkerque – Montpellier
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Dunkerque’s 42% chance of winning against Montpellier suggests a tight contest on paper, with the hosts slightly favored by the model. Their expected goals tally of 1.41 versus Montpellier's 1.19 points to a narrow margin, but in a league as unpredictable as Ligue 2, those decimal differences often make all the difference. Dunkerque's razor-thin victory in their last two head-to-head clashes doesn't offer a conclusive advantage, but it hints at a team capable of clinching tight games.
Montpellier, with their 31% chance of victory, come into this match as the underdogs. While their recent form has been inconsistent, the potential for both teams to score sits at 53%, indicating that the visitors might not be entirely out of the picture. However, the soggy weather conditions—16.7°C and 2.4 mm of rain—could stifle any attacking verve, especially affecting a Montpellier side that might struggle to break down a resolute Dunkerque defense.
Dunkerque, with a modest 1-1 and 1-0 as the most likely scorelines, appears to have the upper hand. The chance of a low-scoring affair is there, but the model’s inclination towards a Dunkerque win suggests that a 1-0 or 2-1 result could very well be on the cards. With over 2.5 goals happening just 48% of the time, and both teams to score slightly favored, it's a game where tactical discipline might trump adventurous play.
For those eyeing a shrewd punt, the value lies with Dunkerque at 2.55 with Pinnacle, given their assessed 42% chance of victory. A 7% edge, according to the model, is not to be sneezed at in a market where the margins are slim. If you’re looking for a weekend flutter, backing the home side might just tick all the right boxes.
DunkerqueForm WLLWD
Key players
- Thomas RobinetFxG 0.63 · xT 0.26
- Egor PrutsevLWxG 0.85 · xT 0.26
- Jordan MorelCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.03
MontpellierForm WLDDW
Key players
- Nordan MukieleLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.27
- Nicolas PaysRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
- Lacine Megnan PaveFxG 0.34 · xT 0.28
Match prediction: Dunkerque – Montpellier
Predicted score matrix
Montpellier →
Dunkerque →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.8%
0–18.5%
0–25.3%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.1%
1–112.8%
1–27.4%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.8%
2–25.2%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.1%
3–22.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,41–1,19
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.92
Over 2,548%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Dunkerque or draw (1X)69%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Egor Prutsev to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Egor Prutsev to score20%
- Théo Chennahi to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Dunkerque42% probability@2.55BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Dunkerque42% probability@2.55BetssonEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Dunkerque42% probability@2.55NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dunkerque | X | 2 · Montpellier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 7% 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Betsson | EV+ 7% 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 7% 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 7% 2.55 | 3.31 | 2.75 |
Odds updated 17 Aug, 12:35
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesDunkerque 1Draw 0Montpellier 1
Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dunkerque
Montpellier
Dunkerque (7–5)
Montpellier (2–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dunkerque
Montpellier
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dunkerque
Montpellier
| The goalkeepers | Bram Lagae (Dunkerque) | Simon Ngapandouetnbu (Montpellier) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 8 |
| Save % | 100% | 89% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 60% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dunkerque vs Montpellier according to our model?
The model gives Dunkerque a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dunkerque 42%, draw 27%, Montpellier 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.