01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Annecy to win51%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Ligue 2Parc des Sports, Annecy20°12 km/h
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Annecy1–1
MetzThe model's lean: 1 · Annecy (51%)
Annecy – Metz · Ligue 2
1 · Annecy 51%X 30%20% Metz · 2
51%
30%
20%
Analysis: Annecy – Metz
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
In a limited head-to-head sample since 2023, Annecy have yet to defeat Metz, recording one draw and one loss. However, this small sample should be weighed carefully against the more telling trends of current form and expected goals, which lean in favor of the hosts. Annecy’s expected goals of 1.54 underscore their attacking potential, particularly in contrast to the visitors’ 0.97, suggesting a tilt towards Annecy in terms of creating chances.
Despite Metz's recent robustness, going unbeaten in their last five league matches, they arrive as underdogs. The model assigns just a 20% probability to a Metz victory, with Annecy holding a commanding 51% chance of securing all three points. The visitors' resilience may be challenged by the model’s suggestion of a tight contest, where both teams scoring stands at a coin-flip probability of 49%.
Most likely scorelines tell a story of a closely fought match, with 1-1 and 1-0 each holding a 12% likelihood, followed by a 2-0 result at 10%. These figures suggest defenses may largely hold sway, yet the model’s lean and Annecy's higher expected goals put the hosts in a favorable light. With the over/under 2.5 goals almost evenly poised at 46%, a low-scoring affair seems plausible.
For those seeking value, the standout betting angle is Annecy’s win, available at odds of 2.52 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Given the model rates this outcome at 51%, there’s a significant edge of 27% on offer. It's a sharp opportunity for those backing the home side in a matchup poised to reward tactical discipline and home advantage.
AnnecyForm WLWWL
Key players
- Antoine LaroseRWxG 0.26 · xT -0.02
- Axel DrouhinCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
- Mohamed Abdoul Kader KonéCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
MetzForm DWWDD
Key players
- Pape Moussa FallFxG 0.77 · xT -0.06
- Giorgi AbuashviliLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.21
- Florian Jérémie MiguelLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.27
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Annecy 51% · Draw 30% · Metz 20%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FC AnnecyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,36fair 8,70+8 %
MissMatchresultat - MetzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,93fair 21,51-54 %
MissMatch prediction: Annecy – Metz
Predicted score matrix
Metz →
Annecy →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.4%
0–17.5%
0–23.8%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–012.1%
1–112.5%
1–25.9%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.6%
2–19.4%
2–24.6%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.9%
3–14.8%
3–22.3%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,54–0,97
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.74
Over 2,546%
@2.14
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Annecy to win51%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Quentin Paris to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Quentin Paris to score23%
- Jessy Deminguet to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Annecy51% probability@2.68PinnacleEV+35%reference odds
- 1 · Annecy51% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+27%reference odds
- 1 · Annecy51% probability@2.52BetssonEV+27%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Annecy | X | 2 · Metz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 16% 2.30 | 2.90 | 2.88 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 27% 2.52 | 3.10 | 2.72 |
| Betsson | EV+ 27% 2.52 | 3.10 | 2.72 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 27% 2.52 | 3.10 | 2.72 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 35% 2.68 | 3.22 | 2.79 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 05:13
Odds movement
1+5 %
39 %34 %
2.56 → 2.68
X-4 %
31 %26 %
3.37 → 3.22
2+4 %
37 %32 %
2.69 → 2.79
Over 2,5+3 %
48 %43 %
2.07 → 2.14
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesAnnecy 0Draw 1Metz 1
Goals: 1–5 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Metz are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Annecy
Metz
Annecy (4–3)
Metz (3–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Annecy
Metz
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Annecy
Metz
| The goalkeepers | Florian Escales (Annecy) | Jonathan Fischer (Metz) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 10 |
| Save % | 86% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 78% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Annecy vs Metz according to our model?
The model gives Annecy a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Annecy 51%, draw 30%, Metz 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.