Sochaux vs Guingamp: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

Ligue 221 August 2026Stade Auguste Bonal, Montbéliard20°8,1 mm15 km/h

Sochaux

Guingamp

The model's lean: 1 · Sochaux (43%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Sochaux 43%X 28%29% Guingamp · 2

43%

28%

29%

Analysis: Sochaux – Guingamp

Erik Lindberg · 17 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

43% is a figure that stands out, tipping FC Sochaux-Montbeliard as slight favourites in this matchup against Guingamp. While not overwhelming, it suggests a tilt in their favour. Delving deeper, the expected goals back this up, showing FC Sochaux-Montbeliard with 1.40 compared to Guingamp's 1.08. The numbers hint at a home side that might just edge out their visitors, albeit narrowly.

FC Sochaux-Montbeliard enters this clash with a touch of confidence, bolstered by their home advantage. While neither team is setting the league alight, the 1-0 scoreline predicted at 11% feels plausible given the predicted xG. Guingamp, with just a 29% win probability, could struggle to find the net consistently, a notion supported by the 50% odds on both teams scoring.

1-1 is the model's favourite scoreline at 13%, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Guingamp snatched a point. Yet, FC Sochaux-Montbeliard’s greater goal expectancy suggests they might find that extra gear necessary to push for a victory. With the over 2.5 goals sitting at 45%, this clash leans towards a tight affair, with defences possibly having the upper hand.

Weather isn't a factor this time, so any goal suppression would be down to tactical setups or individual performances. That said, the model's numbers already account for various factors and indicate a game that might not see a flurry of goals. A cautious approach could dominate, keeping the scoreline modest.

The sharpest betting angle, however, lies with FC Sochaux-Montbeliard to win at 43% probability. The fact that both teams scoring is pegged at only 50% also nudges towards a narrow victory for the hosts, potentially making 1-0 a smart bet. For those looking for an edge, backing FC Sochaux-Montbeliard to eke out a win could be the value play here.

Sochaux

Form LD

Key players

Bendjaloud Salmata YoussoufRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Dalangunypole GomisLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.18
Élie N'GattaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02

Guingamp

Form LLLLW

Key players

Albin DemouchyCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
Stanislas KieltFxG 0.64 · xT 0.00
Teddy AverlantFxG 0.13 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Sochaux – Guingamp

Predicted score matrix

Guingamp →

Sochaux →

0–08.7%

0–18.6%

0–24.9%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.3%

1–113.0%

1–26.9%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.2%

2–18.9%

2–24.8%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.8%

3–14.1%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.0-09%
5.0-19%

Expected goals

1,40–1,08

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.65

Over 2,545%

@2.12

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sochaux or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sochaux or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Lorng Axel Landry Nomel to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Teddy Andami Averlant to score22%
Julien Masson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Sochaux43% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
1 · Sochaux43% probability@2.80BetssonEV+21%reference odds
1 · Sochaux43% probability@2.80NordicbetEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sochaux	X	2 · Guingamp
Betsafe	EV+ 21% 2.80	3.10	2.40
Betsson	EV+ 21% 2.80	3.10	2.40
Nordicbet	EV+ 21% 2.80	3.10	2.40

Odds updated 18 Aug, 05:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Sochaux win since 17 August — the odds have shortened from 3.05 to 2.80 (−8%).

1-8 %

34 %29 %

3.05 → 2.80

X-3 %

32 %27 %

3.20 → 3.10

2+8 %

42 %37 %

2.22 → 2.40

Over 2,50 %

46 %41 %

2.12 → 2.12

Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sochaux

Guingamp

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sochaux (0–3)

Guingamp (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sochaux

Guingamp

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sochaux

Guingamp

The goalkeepers	Mehdi Jeannin (Sochaux)	Adrian Ortola (Guingamp)
Saves	9	7
Save %	75%	78%
xG prevented	52%	67%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sochaux vs Guingamp according to our model?

The model gives Sochaux a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sochaux 43%, draw 28%, Guingamp 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.