Grenoble vs Clermont: Prediction & Odds (18 Sept 2026)

Ligue 218 September 2026Stade des Alpes, Grenoble17°7 km/h

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Grenoble

Clermont

The model's lean: 1 · Grenoble (34%)Soft draw

1 · Grenoble 34%X 33%32% Clermont · 2

34%

33%

32%

Analysis: Grenoble – Clermont

Sofia Andersson · 10 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A razor-thin edge favors Grenoble, with model probabilities giving them a 34% chance to secure the win against Clermont's 32%. The most likely outcomes—1-1, 0-1, and 1-0—each hover around 12-14%, underscoring a tight, low-scoring contest where neither side can claim a clear upper hand. Expected goals are nearly identical, with Grenoble at 1.09 and Clermont at 1.11, suggesting a balanced battle where minor details might tip the scale.

Considering the small head-to-head sample of four matches since 2023, the 1-2-1 record (Grenoble win-draw-loss) between these teams adds little weight compared to current form and expected goals data. The over 2.5 goals probability of just 38% highlights the anticipated scarcity of scoring opportunities, aligning with both teams to score at a modest 45%. This matchup leans away from high drama and more towards disciplined defense and cautious play.

In terms of value, the market's odds reflect a slight lean towards Grenoble. A careful look reveals potential value in backing the hosts, particularly if odds drift above the current market average. However, given the finely balanced nature of this fixture, any play should be measured, heeding the numbers rather than intuition or historical biases.

Grenoble

Form LDLWL

Key players

Samba DibaFxG 0.18 · xT 0.13
Leonardo CerriFxG 0.44 · xT 0.00
Baptiste MouazanFxG 0.07 · xT 0.05

Clermont

Form DLDDD

Key players

Ivan MbahiaRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
Ousmane DiopRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Vital Manuel N'SimbaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.23

Match prediction: Grenoble – Clermont

Predicted score matrix

Clermont →

Grenoble →

0–011.5%

0–111.9%

0–26.8%

0–32.5%

0–4+0.9%

1–011.7%

1–113.8%

1–27.4%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–06.6%

2–17.3%

2–24.1%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–02.4%

3–12.7%

3–21.5%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.8%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.1-012%
4.0-011%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,09–1,11

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

011%

124%

227%

320%

411%

5+7%

Under 2,562%

–

Over 2,538%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Grenoble or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Grenoble or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals62%
Kyliann Fofana to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals38%
Kyliann Fofana to score21%
Yohann Magnin to be booked25%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Grenoble 1Draw 2Clermont 1

Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Grenoble

Clermont

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Grenoble (6–10)

Clermont (3–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Grenoble

Clermont

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Grenoble

Clermont

The goalkeepers	Alexandre Olliero (Grenoble)	Theo Guivarch (Clermont)
Saves	15	8
Save %	71%	62%
xG prevented	36%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Grenoble

Fixtures, form & tips

Clermont

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Grenoble vs Clermont according to our model?

The model gives Grenoble a 34% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grenoble 34%, draw 33%, Clermont 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.