01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Annecy to win46%
- Under 3.5 goals83%
Ligue 2Stade des Alpes, Grenoble26°8 km/h
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Grenoble1–2
AnnecyThe model's lean: 2 · Annecy (46%)
Grenoble – Annecy · Ligue 2
1 · Grenoble 26%X 28%46% Annecy · 2
26%
28%
46%
Analysis: Grenoble – Annecy
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Forty-six percent. That's the probability model's lean towards an Annecy victory against Grenoble, a notable tilt in a tightly contested Ligue 2 fixture. It's an endorsement of the visitors' recent form, underscored by their streak of scoring in eight consecutive league matches. Add to this a small but telling head-to-head sample since 2023, where Annecy have never lost to their hosts, and the narrative begins to favor the traveling team.
The expected goals figures tell a similar story: Annecy are projected to find the net 1.26 times compared to Grenoble's 0.89. The most probable scorelines reflect this, with 0-1 to Annecy leading at 14%. With the over 2.5 goals likelihood sitting at just 36%, coupled with a 43% chance of both teams scoring, the indicators lean toward a tighter, defensively minded affair. The numbers suggest a low-scoring encounter.
For those eyeing value, Annecy's win comes with an attractive edge. Bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.42 for an away victory, a 12% edge based on the model's assessment of Annecy's 46% win probability. In a match where the odds suggest a slight yet significant edge, punters might find value in backing the visitors.
GrenobleForm WLDLW
Key players
- Leonardo CerriFxG 0.44 · xT 0.00
- Samba DibaFxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
- Nesta ZahuiRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
AnnecyForm LWWLD
Key players
- Ahmed KashiCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
- Axel DrouhinCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
- Kilyan Jusseron VeniereRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.00
Final score
1 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Grenoble 26% · Draw 28% · Annecy 46%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FC AnnecyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,71fair 13,81-30 %
MissMatchresultat - GrenobleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,19fair 26,77-51 %
MissMatch prediction: Grenoble – Annecy
Predicted score matrix
Annecy →
Grenoble →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–012.0%
0–114.2%
0–29.2%
0–33.9%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–010.0%
1–113.5%
1–28.2%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–04.7%
2–15.9%
2–23.7%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–01.4%
3–11.7%
3–21.1%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.5%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.1%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-114%
- 2.1-113%
- 3.0-012%
- 4.1-010%
- 5.0-29%
Expected goals
0,89–1,26
Both teams to score
43%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2012%
124%
227%
319%
410%
5+
Under 2,564%
@1.61EV+2%
Over 2,536%
@2.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Annecy to win46%
- Under 2.5 goals64%
- Quentin Paris to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score43%
- Over 2.5 goals36%
- Quentin Paris to score21%
- Jessy Benet to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Annecy46% probability@2.42PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- 2 · Annecy46% probability@2.30BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 2 · Annecy46% probability@2.30BetssonEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Grenoble | X | 2 · Annecy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.15 | 2.95 | EV+ 7% 2.30 |
| Betsson | 3.15 | 2.95 | EV+ 7% 2.30 |
| Nordicbet | 3.15 | 2.95 | EV+ 7% 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 3.26 | 3.15 | EV+ 12% 2.42 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 11:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 1.68 to 1.61 (−4%).
1+9 %
33 %28 %
2.98 → 3.26
X+1 %
33 %28 %
3.13 → 3.15
2-2 %
42 %37 %
2.48 → 2.42
Over 2,5+10 %
44 %39 %
2.18 → 2.40
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesGrenoble 0Draw 2Annecy 2
Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Annecy have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Grenoble
Annecy
Grenoble (5–8)
Annecy (5–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Grenoble
Annecy
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Grenoble
Annecy
| The goalkeepers | Alexandre Olliero (Grenoble) | Florian Escales (Annecy) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 12 |
| Save % | 77% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 77% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Grenoble vs Annecy according to our model?
The model gives Annecy a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grenoble 26%, draw 28%, Annecy 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.