01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Guingamp to win54%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Ligue 2Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp21°23 km/h
Läs på svenska
Guingampvs
BoulogneThe model's lean: 1 · Guingamp (54%)Best value by the model: 2 · Boulogne @ 5.00 (+8 %)
Guingamp – Boulogne · Ligue 2
1 · Guingamp 54%X 24%22% Boulogne · 2
54%
24%
22%
Analysis: Guingamp – Boulogne
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
Five matches on the trot without a victory—Guingamp are in a tailspin that's hard to ignore. Yet, the model data still favours them with a 54% chance of winning against Boulogne, who themselves are pegged at a modest 22% likelihood of taking the spoils. Despite Guingamp's bleak form, the expected goals stat tilts the field in their favour: 1.52 for Guingamp versus 0.95 for Boulogne. But when the chips are down, numbers tend to falter under the weight of a losing streak.
Two recent encounters between the sides, both this year, show Guingamp unbeaten with a win and a draw. However, the sample size is small and should not overshadow the more pressing issue of current form and expected goals. Boulogne might fancy their chances, especially with Bet365 offering odds of 5.0 for an away win, presenting a tasty 8% edge according to model probabilities. This is the kind of value that whispers "why not?" to the more adventurous punter.
Guingamp's woes, coupled with the expected goals, suggest a tight contest. The most likely scorelines—1-1 at 13% and 1-0 at 12%—reinforce the idea of a low-scoring affair. Indeed, the under 2.5 bet at odds of 1.85 with a 55% probability comes with a modest 2% edge, and it appears a sensible play, especially given the 45% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Boulogne are no scoring juggernaut, and with Guingamp likely to tighten up defensively to arrest their slide, a cagey game is in the offing. The weather, if inclement, could further cap scoring opportunities, supporting the under narrative. For those with a taste for risk, the under 1.5 at odds of 3.5 offers a 29% chance, but if you're playing the numbers, the under 2.5 seems the sharper angle. A 1-1 draw feels like the likeliest outcome, but don't dismiss a Guingamp squeaker either.
GuingampForm LLLLL
Key players
- Yohan DemoncyFxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Louis Didace MafoutaFxG 0.50 · xT 0.04
- Nelson Alpha SissokoRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.20
BoulogneForm LLLLD
Key players
- Corentin FatouFxG 0.30 · xT 0.05
- Aurélien PlatretRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
- Julien BoyerLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Guingamp – Boulogne
Predicted score matrix
Boulogne →
Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.7%
0–17.7%
0–23.8%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–012.5%
1–112.5%
1–25.8%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.7%
2–19.3%
2–24.4%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.0%
3–14.7%
3–22.3%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.6%
4+–12.5%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,52–0,95
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.85EV+2%
Over 2,545%
@1.95
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Guingamp to win54%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Stanislas Maxime Tom Kielt to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Stanislas Maxime Tom Kielt to score34%
- Jonas Serge Martin to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Boulogne22% probability@5.00Bet365EV+8%
- Under 2.555% probability@1.85Bet365EV+2%
- Under 1.529% probability@3.50Bet365EV+1%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Guingamp | X | 2 · Boulogne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.60 | EV+ 8% 5.00 |
| Betsafe | 1.72 | 3.50 | EV+ 0% 4.65 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 3.50 | EV+ 0% 4.65 |
| Nordicbet | 1.72 | 3.50 | EV+ 0% 4.65 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 05:35
Odds movement
1-2 %
56 %51 %
1.75 → 1.72
X+1 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.50
2+4 %
23 %18 %
4.45 → 4.65
Over 2,50 %
51 %46 %
1.90 → 1.90
Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesGuingamp 1Draw 1Boulogne 0
Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Guingamp have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Guingamp
Boulogne
Guingamp (1–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Guingamp
Boulogne
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Guingamp
Boulogne
| The goalkeepers | Adrian Ortola (Guingamp) | Blondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu (Boulogne) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 3 |
| Save % | 71% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Guingamp vs Boulogne according to our model?
The model gives Guingamp a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Guingamp 54%, draw 24%, Boulogne 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.