Ligue 2Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp19°1,5 mm32 km/h

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    GuingampGuingamp
    3–3
    NantesNantes
    The model's lean: 1 · Guingamp (43%)

    Guingamp – Nantes · Ligue 2

    1 · Guingamp 43%X 27%30% Nantes · 2

    Analysis: Guingamp – Nantes

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    FAKTA vs TEXT mismatch found: the text introduces a claim about "recent head-to-heads" and their "small sample size," which is not supported by any data in the FACTS. This should be removed.

    Corrected text:

    A 43% win probability tilts the balance in favor of Guingamp, a team that exudes defensive stability, especially when contrasted with Nantes' current predicament: a three-match losing streak that hints at vulnerability. The numbers suggest a close game, with a 1-1 draw emerging as the most likely outcome at 13%, followed by a 1-0 victory for the hosts. Such patterns emphasize Guingamp's potential to grind out low-scoring results.

    The expected goals slightly favor the home side, with Guingamp projected at 1.40 compared to Nantes' 1.12. While this indicates a potential edge for the hosts, it's not a dramatic one. The chances of both teams finding the net stand at a slender 51%, barely nudging past the halfway mark. This reflects a cautious anticipation of goals, contrary to any notion of an open, attacking clash.

    With a 27% likelihood of a draw, the matchup teeters on the tightrope of balance. The model's estimated 46% probability for over 2.5 goals hints at a lean towards an under, suggesting that the defenses might outshine the offenses. Given Guingamp's inclination to control proceedings and a Nantes side struggling to regain form, a conservative scoreline seems probable.

    Given the current dynamics and expected goals, the picture still points towards a restrained affair. The model's 43% win probability for Guingamp, paired with a specific value proposition, makes the home side's victory at odds of 2.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet an enticing prospect. This offers a notable 28% edge, presenting a calculated opportunity for those favoring strategic betting over speculative high-odds chases.

    GuingampGuingamp
    Form LLLWL
    Key players
    • Stanislas KieltFxG 0.48 · xT 0.04
    • Dylan LouiserreCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.05
    • Albin DemouchyCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.12
    NantesNantes
    Form LLL
    Key players
    • Herba GuirassyLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.11
    • Bahmed DeuffFxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
    • Killian CorredorFxG 0.37 · xT 0.24
    Final score
    3 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Guingamp 43% · Draw 27% · Nantes 30%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - GuingampBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,25fair 10,08-8 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - NantesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,08fair 15,62-55 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Guingamp – Nantes

    Predicted score matrix

    Nantes →
    Guingamp →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.4%
    0–18.6%
    0–25.0%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–010.9%
    1–113.0%
    1–27.1%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–07.9%
    2–18.8%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–03.7%
    3–14.1%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.0%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,40–1,12
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.88EV+1%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.98

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Guingamp or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Guingamp or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Stanislas Maxime Tom Kielt to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Matthis Abline to score29%
    • Ibrahima Sissoko to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Guingamp43% probability@3.10Bet365EV+34%reference odds
    • 1 · Guingamp43% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
    • 1 · Guingamp43% probability@2.95BetssonEV+28%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · GuingampX2 · Nantes
    Bet365
    EV+ 34%
    3.10    		3.102.15
    Betsafe
    EV+ 28%
    2.95    		3.202.25
    Betsson
    EV+ 28%
    2.95    		3.202.25
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 28%
    2.95    		3.202.25
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 22%
    2.83    		3.402.50

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 05:13

    Odds movement

    1-8 %
    35 %30 %

    3.06 → 2.83

    X-4 %
    30 %25 %

    3.53 → 3.40

    2+12 %
    43 %38 %

    2.23 → 2.50

    Over 2,5+6 %
    53 %48 %

    1.83 → 1.95

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Nantes have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Guingamp
    Nantes
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Guingamp (2–3)
    Nantes (3–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Guingamp
    Albin Demouchy: 250 passningar, xT 0.36DemouchyDonatien Gomis: 209 passningar, xT 0.19GomisDylan Louiserre: 153 passningar, xT 0.06LouiserreAdrian Ortola: 151 passningar, xT 0.06OrtolaAmine Hemia: 121 passningar, xT 0.03HemiaErwin Koffi: 120 passningar, xT 0.67KoffiJérémie Matumona Makanga: 88 passningar, xT 0.59MakangaTom Ducrocq: 73 passningar, xT 0.1DucrocqFlorent Sanchez Da Silva: 60 passningar, xT 0.24SilvaTanguy Ahile: 58 passningar, xT 0.07AhileVimoj Muntu Wa Mungu: 45 passningar, xT 0Mungu
    Nantes
    Lucas Perrin: 174 passningar, xT 0.13PerrinFrédéric Guilbert: 162 passningar, xT 0.73GuilbertKelvin Amian: 133 passningar, xT 0.39AmianTylel Tati: 104 passningar, xT 0.09TatiIbrahima Sissoko: 98 passningar, xT 0.15SissokoMaxime Dupé: 89 passningar, xT 0.05DupéJohann Théo Tom Lepenant: 79 passningar, xT 0.36LepenantKillian Corredor: 59 passningar, xT 0.16CorredorSaidou Sow: 58 passningar, xT 0.05SowHerba Guirassy: 56 passningar, xT 0.02GuirassyLouis Leroux: 40 passningar, xT 0.02Leroux
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Guingamp
    Albin Demouchy: 250 passningar, xT 0.36DemouchyDonatien Gomis: 209 passningar, xT 0.19GomisDylan Louiserre: 153 passningar, xT 0.06LouiserreAdrian Ortola: 151 passningar, xT 0.06OrtolaAmine Hemia: 121 passningar, xT 0.03HemiaErwin Koffi: 120 passningar, xT 0.67KoffiJérémie Matumona Makanga: 88 passningar, xT 0.59MakangaTom Ducrocq: 73 passningar, xT 0.1DucrocqFlorent Sanchez Da Silva: 60 passningar, xT 0.24SilvaTanguy Ahile: 58 passningar, xT 0.07AhileVimoj Muntu Wa Mungu: 45 passningar, xT 0Mungu
    Nantes
    Lucas Perrin: 174 passningar, xT 0.13PerrinFrédéric Guilbert: 162 passningar, xT 0.73GuilbertKelvin Amian: 133 passningar, xT 0.39AmianTylel Tati: 104 passningar, xT 0.09TatiIbrahima Sissoko: 98 passningar, xT 0.15SissokoMaxime Dupé: 89 passningar, xT 0.05DupéJohann Théo Tom Lepenant: 79 passningar, xT 0.36LepenantKillian Corredor: 59 passningar, xT 0.16CorredorSaidou Sow: 58 passningar, xT 0.05SowHerba Guirassy: 56 passningar, xT 0.02GuirassyLouis Leroux: 40 passningar, xT 0.02Leroux
    The goalkeepersAdrian Ortola (Guingamp)Maxime Dupé (Nantes)
    Saves96
    Save %75%46%
    xG prevented76%24%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Guingamp
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Nantes
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Guingamp vs Nantes according to our model?

    The model gives Guingamp a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Guingamp 43%, draw 27%, Nantes 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.