Ligue 2Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval20°1,1 mm19 km/h

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    LavalLaval
    0–3
    GrenobleGrenoble
    The model's lean: 1 · Laval (42%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.75 (+8 %)

    Laval – Grenoble · Ligue 2

    1 · Laval 42%X 32%26% Grenoble · 2

    Analysis: Laval – Grenoble

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    The text incorrectly states "the model's under 2.5 goals probability of 38%" — the facts specify that 38% is the probability for OVER 2.5 goals, not under.

    CORRECTED TEXT:

    Laval holds a 42% chance of winning against Grenoble, according to the model. With the home team favored, a tight contest is expected. Most probable scorelines suggest a draw or a narrow win for the hosts, notably the 1-1 and 1-0 outcomes. The expected goals back this up, with Laval at 1.25 and Grenoble at 0.96, indicating a potential edge for the hosts but not a high-scoring affair.

    Head-to-head data since 2023 shows Laval with a slight disadvantage, having won only once in four encounters. However, with just four matches as the sample, this record carries limited weight in the face of current form and probabilities. The lean towards a low-scoring game is further supported by the model's over 2.5 goals probability of only 38%, suggesting a measured approach from both sides.

    There's a noticeable value opportunity for bettors in the under 1.5 goals market. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 3.0, with the model rating it at a 35% probability. This presents a 4% edge, making it an intriguing option for those looking to capitalize on a potentially subdued matchup. Expect a cautious battle with the under 1.5 goals bet as the standout angle.

    LavalLaval
    Form LWLWD
    Key players
    • Mathis HoudayerFxG 0.32 · xT 0.14
    • Esteban MoutonRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.27
    • Malik SelloukiRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
    GrenobleGrenoble
    Form WWLDL
    Key players
    • Nesta ZahuiRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
    • Yadaly DiabyLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.14
    • Matthéo XantippeLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    0 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Laval 42% · Draw 32% · Grenoble 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - GrenobleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,76fair 22,57-43 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - LavalBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,57fair 13,52-44 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Laval – Grenoble

    Predicted score matrix

    Grenoble →
    Laval →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–011.3%
    0–110.1%
    0–25.1%
    0–31.6%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–013.3%
    1–113.5%
    1–26.3%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–08.6%
    2–18.2%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–03.6%
    3–13.4%
    3–21.7%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,25–0,96
    Both teams to score
    44%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,562%
    @1.75EV+5%
    Over 2,538%
    @2.12

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Laval or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 3.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    59%

    Fair odds

    1.71

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Laval or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 2.5 goals62%
    • Mamadou Camara to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score44%
    • Over 2.5 goals38%
    • Mamadou Camara to score28%
    • Lucas Bernadou to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.562% probability@1.75PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • Under 1.535% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • Under 1.535% probability@3.05BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · LavalX2 · Grenoble
    Betsafe2.083.003.60
    Betsson2.083.003.60
    Nordicbet2.083.003.60
    Pinnacle2.07
    EV+ 1%
    3.22
    EV+ 4%
    4.00

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 10:29

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Grenoble win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 4.41 to 4.00 (−9%).

    1-1 %
    48 %43 %

    2.09 → 2.07

    X+15 %
    34 %29 %

    2.81 → 3.22

    2-9 %
    25 %20 %

    4.41 → 4.00

    Over 2,5-2 %
    47 %42 %

    2.17 → 2.12

    Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Laval 1Draw 1Grenoble 2
    Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Laval
    Grenoble
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Laval (4–5)
    Grenoble (2–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Laval
    William Bianda: 147 passningar, xT 0.17BiandaEsteban Mouton: 146 passningar, xT 0.69MoutonJules Gaudin: 118 passningar, xT 0.1GaudinSam Sanna: 113 passningar, xT 0.3SannaCyril Mandouki: 96 passningar, xT -0.03MandoukiMamadou Samassa: 87 passningar, xT 0.06SamassaAboubacar Lo: 77 passningar, xT 0.11LoMalik Sellouki: 58 passningar, xT -0.01SelloukiJulien Maggiotti: 51 passningar, xT 0.02MaggiottiMamadou Sidibé: 50 passningar, xT 0.03SidibéTeddy Bouriaud: 48 passningar, xT 0.03Bouriaud
    Grenoble
    Clément Vidal: 153 passningar, xT 0.09VidalMatthéo Xantippe: 120 passningar, xT 0.12XantippeEfe Sarıkaya: 92 passningar, xT 0.03SarıkayaMaël Vincent Lawrence Corboz: 90 passningar, xT -0.02CorbozYohann Magnin: 88 passningar, xT 0.01MagninNesta Zahui: 87 passningar, xT 0.38ZahuiAlexandre Olliero: 63 passningar, xT 0.04OllieroFarouq Limouri: 41 passningar, xT 0.04LimouriYadaly Diaby: 32 passningar, xT 0.18DiabyLucas Bernadou: 31 passningar, xT -0.01BernadouKyliann Fofana: 24 passningar, xT -0.01Fofana
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Laval
    William Bianda: 147 passningar, xT 0.17BiandaEsteban Mouton: 146 passningar, xT 0.69MoutonJules Gaudin: 118 passningar, xT 0.1GaudinSam Sanna: 113 passningar, xT 0.3SannaCyril Mandouki: 96 passningar, xT -0.03MandoukiMamadou Samassa: 87 passningar, xT 0.06SamassaAboubacar Lo: 77 passningar, xT 0.11LoMalik Sellouki: 58 passningar, xT -0.01SelloukiJulien Maggiotti: 51 passningar, xT 0.02MaggiottiMamadou Sidibé: 50 passningar, xT 0.03SidibéTeddy Bouriaud: 48 passningar, xT 0.03Bouriaud
    Grenoble
    Clément Vidal: 153 passningar, xT 0.09VidalMatthéo Xantippe: 120 passningar, xT 0.12XantippeEfe Sarıkaya: 92 passningar, xT 0.03SarıkayaMaël Vincent Lawrence Corboz: 90 passningar, xT -0.02CorbozYohann Magnin: 88 passningar, xT 0.01MagninNesta Zahui: 87 passningar, xT 0.38ZahuiAlexandre Olliero: 63 passningar, xT 0.04OllieroFarouq Limouri: 41 passningar, xT 0.04LimouriYadaly Diaby: 32 passningar, xT 0.18DiabyLucas Bernadou: 31 passningar, xT -0.01BernadouKyliann Fofana: 24 passningar, xT -0.01Fofana
    The goalkeepersMamadou Samassa (Laval)Alexandre Olliero (Grenoble)
    Saves149
    Save %74%69%
    xG prevented61%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Laval
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Grenoble
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Laval vs Grenoble according to our model?

    The model gives Laval a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Laval 42%, draw 32%, Grenoble 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    GrenobleGrenoble
    1 48%X 28%2 24%
    The model called the outcome
    MontpellierMontpellier
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.