01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Red Star or draw (X2)67%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
Ligue 2Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval22°17 km/h
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Laval1–2
Red StarThe model's lean: 2 · Red Star (39%)Best value by the model: 1 · Laval @ 3.15 (+4 %)
Laval – Red Star · Ligue 2
1 · Laval 33%X 28%39% Red Star · 2
33%
28%
39%
Analysis: Laval – Red Star
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Red Star's slight edge in the upcoming clash with Laval is intriguing, given the model's probabilities. Despite the hosts having a balanced head-to-head record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss over a small sample of four matches since 2023, the visitors are favored with a 39% chance of taking home the points. These odds suggest a competitive matchup, but one where Red Star might just have the edge.
The expected goals tell a similar story, with Laval at 1.14 and Red Star at 1.26. This suggests a narrow margin in attacking potential, giving the visitors a slight advantage once again. A 1-1 draw is the most likely scoreline at 13%, but the model leans towards a 0-1 victory for Red Star at 11%. This aligns with the team's marginal superiority in expected goals. The odds for over 2.5 goals sit at 43%, indicating a cautious expectation for goal output, and with both teams to score at just 49%, a clean sheet for either side is plausible.
Ultimately, the numbers point towards a narrow victory for Red Star, with a 0-1 scoreline looking plausible, reflecting the model's slight lean towards the visitors.
LavalForm WLWDL
Key players
- Esteban MoutonRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.27
- Malik SelloukiRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
- Sam SannaCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Red StarForm LWDDL
Key players
- Damien DurandLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.31
- Dylan DurivauxCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.24
- Kévin CabralLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.04
Final score
1 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Laval 33% · Draw 28% · Red Star 39%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - LavalBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,51fair 15,12-31 %
MissMatchresultat - Red Star 93Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,22fair 12,52-34 %
MissMatch prediction: Laval – Red Star
Predicted score matrix
Red Star →
Laval →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.4%
0–111.0%
0–27.2%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–09.9%
1–113.4%
1–28.2%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–05.9%
2–17.5%
2–24.7%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–02.3%
3–12.8%
3–21.8%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,14–1,26
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,557%
@1.79EV+2%
Over 2,543%
@2.07
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Red Star or draw (X2)67%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Kémo Cissé to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Mamadou Camara to score22%
- Balthazar Jean Philippe Marie Pierret to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Laval33% probability@3.15PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- Under 2.557% probability@1.79PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Laval | X | 2 · Red Star |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.32 |
| Betsson | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.32 |
| Nordicbet | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 3.15 | 3.29 | 2.38 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 10:37
Odds movement
1+7 %
33 %28 %
2.95 → 3.15
X+4 %
32 %27 %
3.16 → 3.29
2-4 %
42 %37 %
2.48 → 2.38
Over 2,5-3 %
48 %43 %
2.13 → 2.07
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesLaval 1Draw 2Red Star 1
Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Laval
Red Star
Laval (4–8)
Red Star (3–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Laval
Red Star
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Laval
Red Star
| The goalkeepers | Mamadou Samassa (Laval) | Gaetan Poussin (Red Star) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 16 |
| Save % | 67% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Laval vs Red Star according to our model?
The model gives Red Star a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Laval 33%, draw 28%, Red Star 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.