Metz vs Laval: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

Ligue 221 August 2026Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz18°7 km/h

Metz

Laval

The model's lean: 1 · Metz (43%)Best value by the model: 2 · Laval @ 4.10 (+17 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Metz 43%X 28%29% Laval · 2

43%

28%

29%

Analysis: Metz – Laval

Erik Lindberg · 17 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The numbers paint a compelling picture for Metz as they prepare to face Laval. With the model assigning a 43% chance of victory to Metz compared to Laval's 29%, the home side carries the statistical edge. This edge is further supported by their unbeaten record in the two head-to-head encounters since 2023, where Metz secured one win and one draw. However, with such a small sample size, head-to-head results take a backseat to current form and expected goals.

Metz comes into this match with an expected goals figure of 1.36, suggesting they are likely to find the back of the net at least once. Laval, on the other hand, trails slightly in this metric with an expected goals of 1.05. The most likely scoreline, according to the model, is a 1-1 draw at 13%, closely followed by a 1-0 win for Metz at 12%. These probabilities indicate a tight contest with goals potentially at a premium.

Laval might be underestimated due to their lower win probability, but matches between these sides have historically been close. The over 2.5 goals market is sitting at 43%, reflecting a game that leans more towards being low-scoring. With a 49% chance for both teams to score, there’s little to suggest this will be an open affair.

Metz's form, combined with slightly superior numbers, inclines toward a narrow victory. A 1-0 win for the home side feels like the prudent call, but the odds suggest that anything could happen in such a tightly matched game. For punters, this is where the value appears: Bet365 offers a tempting price of 2.20 on Metz to win. While no bet is guaranteed, this looks like a solid opportunity for those chasing value in this Ligue 2 fixture.

Metz

Form LDWWD

Key players

Pape Moussa FallFxG 0.97 · xT 0.00
Believe MunongoCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.27
Cristian David Castro DevenishCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12

Laval

Form DLWLW

Key players

Malik SelloukiRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
Esteban MoutonRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.34
Sam SannaCAMxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Metz – Laval

Predicted score matrix

Laval →

Metz →

0–09.3%

0–19.0%

0–25.0%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.8%

1–113.2%

1–26.7%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.3%

2–18.7%

2–24.6%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.8%

3–14.0%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-09%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,36–1,05

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.72

Over 2,543%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Metz or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Metz or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Pape Moussa Fall to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Pape Moussa Fall to score33%
Sam Sanna to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Laval29% probability@4.10BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
2 · Laval29% probability@4.10BetssonEV+17%reference odds
2 · Laval29% probability@4.10NordicbetEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Metz	X	2 · Laval
Betsafe	1.82	3.35	EV+ 17% 4.10
Betsson	1.82	3.35	EV+ 17% 4.10
Nordicbet	1.82	3.35	EV+ 17% 4.10

Odds updated 18 Aug, 10:36

Odds movement

10 %

53 %48 %

1.82 → 1.82

X+2 %

30 %25 %

3.30 → 3.35

20 %

25 %20 %

4.10 → 4.10

Over 2,5-2 %

48 %43 %

2.05 → 2.00

Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Metz 1Draw 1Laval 0

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Metz

Laval

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Metz (2–1)

Laval (3–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Metz

Laval

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Metz

Laval

The goalkeepers	Jonathan Fischer (Metz)	Mamadou Samassa (Laval)
Saves	8	8
Save %	89%	67%
xG prevented	92%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Metz vs Laval according to our model?

The model gives Metz a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Metz 43%, draw 28%, Laval 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.