Metz vs Rodez: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Ligue 25 September 2026Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz20°0,7 mm13 km/h

Läs på svenska

Metz

4–1

Rodez

The model's lean: 2 · Rodez (40%)

1 · Metz 31%X 29%40% Rodez · 2

31%

29%

40%

Analysis: Metz – Rodez

Erik Lindberg · 2 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

In a small head-to-head sample since 2023, Metz have edged Rodez with a win and a draw, but historical patterns tell only part of the story. Metz have been on a solid unbeaten run over their last six league matches, indicating a stable form and a penchant for grinding out results. Yet, the model sees something different in this matchup.

The numbers suggest a tightly contested affair, with Rodez actually tipped as slight favorites. While Metz's unbeaten streak might tempt some into a false sense of security, it's important to understand that the expected goals lean slightly in favor of the visitors at 1.31 compared to 1.23. This subtle edge is crucial for bettors looking to make informed decisions rather than emotional ones.

Despite a relatively even distribution of likely outcomes, the model has a clear inclination toward a low-scoring match. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13%, with a narrow 0-1 win for Rodez at 10% following close behind. The expectation for goals is modest, with an under 2.5 lean at 53%, and both teams to score slightly above a coin flip at 52%.

For those looking to maximize value, the standout angle is in backing Rodez at odds of 3.4 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. The model's 40% probability for an away win suggests a significant edge of 36%, making this the most compelling play for those seeking an edge on a night where defensive discipline may very well decide the outcome.

Metz

Form WWDDD

Key players

Pape Moussa FallFxG 0.57 · xT -0.05
Jahyann PandoreCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Idris MohamedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.05

Rodez

Form DWLWD

Key players

Ibrahima BaldéFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
Raphaël LipinskiCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
Loni LaurentCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17

Final score

4 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Metz 31% · Draw 29% · Rodez 40%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Rodez AveyronBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,49fair 11,28-7 %

Miss

Matchresultat - MetzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,71fair 12,73-55 %

Hit

Match prediction: Metz – Rodez

Predicted score matrix

Rodez →

Metz →

0–08.2%

0–19.9%

0–26.7%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.3%

1–113.1%

1–28.3%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.0%

2–17.8%

2–25.1%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.5%

3–13.2%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,23–1,31

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@2.06EV+6%

Over 2,547%

@1.79

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rodez or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rodez or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Taïryk Arconte to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Taïryk Arconte to score35%
Jean-Philippe Gbamin to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Rodez40% probability@3.61PinnacleEV+44%reference odds
2 · Rodez40% probability@3.50BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
2 · Rodez40% probability@3.50BetssonEV+40%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Metz	X	2 · Rodez
Betsafe	1.92	3.40	EV+ 40% 3.50
Betsson	1.92	3.40	EV+ 40% 3.50
Nordicbet	1.92	3.40	EV+ 40% 3.50
Pinnacle	2.05	EV+ 3% 3.59	EV+ 44% 3.61

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:31

Odds movement

1-1 %

49 %44 %

2.07 → 2.05

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.54 → 3.59

2+6 %

29 %24 %

3.39 → 3.61

Over 2,5+3 %

57 %52 %

1.75 → 1.79

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Metz 1Draw 1Rodez 0

Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Metz are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Metz

Rodez

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Metz (4–3)

Rodez (10–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Metz

Rodez

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Metz

Rodez

The goalkeepers	Jonathan Fischer (Metz)	Lucas Margueron (Rodez)
Saves	10	8
Save %	83%	57%
xG prevented	58%	24%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Metz

Fixtures, form & tips

Rodez

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Metz vs Rodez according to our model?

The model gives Rodez a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Metz 31%, draw 29%, Rodez 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.