Ligue 2Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier27°15 km/h

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    MontpellierMontpellier
    0–0
    BoulogneBoulogne
    The model's lean: 1 · Montpellier (60%)

    Montpellier – Boulogne · Ligue 2

    1 · Montpellier 60%X 23%17% Boulogne · 2

    Analysis: Montpellier – Boulogne

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Boulogne's surprising dominance over Montpellier in their recent head-to-head encounters — winning both matches since 2023 — adds an intriguing layer to this Ligue 2 clash. Yet, with a sample size of only two games, this streak might not tell the full story of these teams' current dynamics. The numbers suggest a different narrative: Montpellier's form and tactical approach are set to take center stage.

    Montpellier show a pronounced preference for controlling the midfield, leveraging possession to create opportunities, which aligns with their expected goals tally of 1.70. Their propensity to press high and exploit the wings could unsettle a Boulogne side that has struggled against teams employing such tactics. The visitors, meanwhile, are likely to adopt a more conservative approach, aiming to capitalize on the counterattack, yet their expected goals of 0.96 suggest limited offensive firepower.

    With the model favoring Montpellier at 60% to secure victory, the hosts are clearly seen as the stronger side. However, the most likely scorelines at 12% chance each are a tight 1-1 draw or a 1-0 Montpellier win, highlighting the potential for a closely contested match. Despite an even 50% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance for both teams to score, these figures signal the uncertainty that often accompanies Ligue 2 encounters.

    While past meetings lean towards Boulogne, the current data and tactical tendencies suggest Montpellier should edge this one. A narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts appears the most plausible outcome, with a cautious lean towards under 2.5 goals given Boulogne's likely defensive posture.

    MontpellierMontpellier
    Form LDDWW
    Key players
    • Nicolas PaysRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.16
    • Lacine Megnan PaveFxG 0.38 · xT 0.18
    • Nordan MukieleLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.25
    BoulogneBoulogne
    Form LLDLD
    Key players
    • Abdel HbouchFxG 0.33 · xT 0.12
    • Benjamin BesicFxG 0.46 · xT 0.14
    • Joffrey BultelFxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Montpellier 60% · Draw 23% · Boulogne 17%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - MontpellierBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,20fair 7,30-15 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - US BoulogneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 18,76fair 22,59-17 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Montpellier – Boulogne

    Predicted score matrix

    Boulogne →
    Montpellier →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.4%
    0–16.4%
    0–23.2%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.6%
    1–111.8%
    1–25.5%
    1–31.7%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.1%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.7%
    3–15.5%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.6%
    4+–13.4%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,70–0,96
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @1.75
    Over 2,550%
    @1.98

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Montpellier to win60%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.69

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Montpellier to win60%
    • Under 2.5 goals50%
    • Alexandre Mendy to score46%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Alexandre Mendy to score46%
    • Joffrey Bultel to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Montpellier60% probability@1.68BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
    • 1 · Montpellier60% probability@1.68BetssonEV+0%reference odds
    • 1 · Montpellier60% probability@1.68NordicbetEV+0%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · MontpellierX2 · Boulogne
    Betsafe
    EV+ 0%
    1.68    		3.404.90
    Betsson
    EV+ 0%
    1.68    		3.404.90
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 0%
    1.68    		3.404.90

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:38

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    59 %49 %

    1.75 → 1.68

    X0 %
    31 %21 %

    3.40 → 3.40

    2+11 %
    24 %14 %

    4.40 → 4.90

    Over 2,5+3 %
    54 %44 %

    1.92 → 1.98

    Betsson · 20 recorded price levels · 21/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Montpellier 0Draw 0Boulogne 2
    Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Montpellier
    Boulogne
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Montpellier (3–1)
    Boulogne (1–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Montpellier
    Yael Mouanga: 120 passningar, xT 0.11MouangaSimon Ngapandouetnbu: 118 passningar, xT 0.08NgapandouetnbuJulien Laporte: 116 passningar, xT 0.11LaporteThéo Sainte-Luce: 111 passningar, xT 0.34Sainte-LuceEnzo Tchato: 56 passningar, xT 0.35TchatoThéo Chennahi: 53 passningar, xT 0.18ChennahiNicolas Pays: 50 passningar, xT 0.46PaysDaylam Meddah: 49 passningar, xT 0.01MeddahNordan Mukiele: 45 passningar, xT 0.52MukieleFlorian Tardieu: 38 passningar, xT 0.06TardieuNoah Vidal-Cartoux: 35 passningar, xT 0.27Vidal-Cartoux
    Boulogne
    Theo Brusco: 123 passningar, xT 0.13BruscoJulien Boyer: 110 passningar, xT 0.5BoyerBlondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu: 104 passningar, xT 0.14NoukeuAntoine Kerriou: 100 passningar, xT 0.12KerriouDemba Thiam: 96 passningar, xT 0.17ThiamNolan Binet: 62 passningar, xT 0.08BinetJonas Serge Martin: 61 passningar, xT 0.02MartinAbdel Hbouch: 59 passningar, xT 0.03HbouchAurélien Platret: 57 passningar, xT 0.55PlatretJoffrey Bultel: 48 passningar, xT 0.03BultelBenjamin Besic: 21 passningar, xT 0.06Besic
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Montpellier
    Yael Mouanga: 120 passningar, xT 0.11MouangaSimon Ngapandouetnbu: 118 passningar, xT 0.08NgapandouetnbuJulien Laporte: 116 passningar, xT 0.11LaporteThéo Sainte-Luce: 111 passningar, xT 0.34Sainte-LuceEnzo Tchato: 56 passningar, xT 0.35TchatoThéo Chennahi: 53 passningar, xT 0.18ChennahiNicolas Pays: 50 passningar, xT 0.46PaysDaylam Meddah: 49 passningar, xT 0.01MeddahNordan Mukiele: 45 passningar, xT 0.52MukieleFlorian Tardieu: 38 passningar, xT 0.06TardieuNoah Vidal-Cartoux: 35 passningar, xT 0.27Vidal-Cartoux
    Boulogne
    Theo Brusco: 123 passningar, xT 0.13BruscoJulien Boyer: 110 passningar, xT 0.5BoyerBlondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu: 104 passningar, xT 0.14NoukeuAntoine Kerriou: 100 passningar, xT 0.12KerriouDemba Thiam: 96 passningar, xT 0.17ThiamNolan Binet: 62 passningar, xT 0.08BinetJonas Serge Martin: 61 passningar, xT 0.02MartinAbdel Hbouch: 59 passningar, xT 0.03HbouchAurélien Platret: 57 passningar, xT 0.55PlatretJoffrey Bultel: 48 passningar, xT 0.03BultelBenjamin Besic: 21 passningar, xT 0.06Besic
    The goalkeepersSimon Ngapandouetnbu (Montpellier)Blondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu (Boulogne)
    Saves117
    Save %92%78%
    xG prevented65%53%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Montpellier
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Boulogne
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Montpellier vs Boulogne according to our model?

    The model gives Montpellier a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Montpellier 60%, draw 23%, Boulogne 17%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.