Ligue 2Stade Marcel Picot, Nancy22°23,7 mm23 km/h

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    NancyNancy
    2–0
    DunkerqueDunkerque
    The model's lean: 2 · Dunkerque (41%)

    Nancy – Dunkerque · Ligue 2

    1 · Nancy 29%X 30%41% Dunkerque · 2

    Analysis: Nancy – Dunkerque

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Dunkerque's attacking precision has been a defining factor this season, and it might just be the key again as they prepare to face Nancy. Despite Nancy's perfect head-to-head record in their two encounters since 2023, Dunkerque enters this match with a statistical edge. The visitors have an impressive 41% chance of victory according to the model, and this stacks up well against the home side's 29%.

    Nancy's defense will need to tighten up considerably, especially given their expected goals of only 1.10. This figure suggests they might struggle to create clear-cut opportunities. Meanwhile, Dunkerque's expected goals stand at 1.39, indicating a slightly more potent attack. The model sees a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, yet Dunkerque's tactical discipline and ability to capitalize on chances hint at their potential to snatch a narrow victory.

    Rain is expected to dampen the proceedings with 5.2 mm of precipitation, typically a suppressor of goal-scoring antics. This weather factor aligns with the model's modest 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability for both teams to find the net. However, Dunkerque's recent form and strategic advantage suggest they are better equipped to handle these conditions.

    For punters keen on value, the 2.65 odds for a Dunkerque win with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a compelling case. The model grants a 41% chance of an away win, delivering an 8% edge on the bookmakers' lines. This rate hints at significant value, especially for those confident in Dunkerque's ability to outmaneuver Nancy and break their head-to-head streak. A 0-1 scoreline feels plausible, and the away side seems poised to make a statement.

    NancyNancy
    Form WWDLW
    Key players
    • Brandon BokangouFxG 0.49 · xT 0.03
    • Zakaria FdaouchLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
    • Elydjah MendyCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
    DunkerqueDunkerque
    Form LLWDL
    Key players
    • Thomas RobinetFxG 0.48 · xT 0.15
    • Egor PrutsevLWxG 0.64 · xT 0.20
    • Allan LinguetRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.23
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Nancy 29% · Draw 30% · Dunkerque 41%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - DunkerqueBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,22fair 10,36-21 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - NancyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,66fair 16,23-53 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Nancy – Dunkerque

    Predicted score matrix

    Dunkerque →
    Nancy →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.7%
    0–111.1%
    0–28.0%
    0–33.7%
    0–4+1.7%
    1
    1–08.8%
    1–113.1%
    1–28.8%
    1–34.1%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–05.0%
    2–17.0%
    2–24.8%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–01.9%
    3–12.6%
    3–21.8%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.1-09%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,10–1,39
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @2.01EV+4%
    Over 2,545%
    @1.85

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Dunkerque or draw (X2)71%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.88

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Dunkerque or draw (X2)71%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • Thomas Robinet to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • Zakaria Fdaouch to score27%
    • Teddy Bouriaud to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Dunkerque41% probability@2.84PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
    • Under 2.555% probability@2.01PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • 2 · Dunkerque41% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · NancyX2 · Dunkerque
    Betsafe2.523.20
    EV+ 8%
    2.65
    Betsson2.523.20
    EV+ 8%
    2.65
    Nordicbet2.523.20
    EV+ 8%
    2.65
    Pinnacle2.50
    EV+ 3%
    3.45
    EV+ 16%
    2.84

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 10:29

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    40 %35 %

    2.57 → 2.50

    X0 %
    30 %25 %

    3.44 → 3.45

    2+8 %
    37 %32 %

    2.64 → 2.84

    Over 2,5+6 %
    55 %50 %

    1.76 → 1.85

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Nancy 2Draw 0Dunkerque 0
    Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Nancy
    Dunkerque
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Nancy (1–1)
    Dunkerque (7–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Nancy
    Nehemiah Fernandez-Veliz: 156 passningar, xT 0.34Fernandez-VelizElydjah Mendy: 140 passningar, xT 0.22MendyEnzo Tacafred: 111 passningar, xT 0.2TacafredWalid Bouabdelli: 90 passningar, xT -0.34BouabdelliKouroufia Kebe: 87 passningar, xT 0.57KebeEnzo Basilio: 83 passningar, xT 0.12BasilioIlyes Housni: 78 passningar, xT 0.54HousniZakaria Fdaouch: 68 passningar, xT 0.3FdaouchYannis Nahounou: 47 passningar, xT 0.04NahounouHéliohdino Tavares Correia: 45 passningar, xT 0.05CorreiaJérémy Pierre Sincère Gélin: 42 passningar, xT 0.04Gélin
    Dunkerque
    Allan Linguet: 188 passningar, xT 0.68LinguetOpa Sanganté: 184 passningar, xT 0.38SangantéBram Lagae: 166 passningar, xT 0.26LagaeJordan Morel: 127 passningar, xT 0.11MorelVictor Mayela: 84 passningar, xT 0.28MayelaAdrien Lebeau: 82 passningar, xT 0.11LebeauAlex Daho: 74 passningar, xT 0.41DahoMaxence André Prévot: 65 passningar, xT 0.04PrévotThéna Massock: 48 passningar, xT -0.01MassockThomas Robinet: 41 passningar, xT 0.59RobinetLenny Vallier: 35 passningar, xT 0.15Vallier
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Nancy
    Nehemiah Fernandez-Veliz: 156 passningar, xT 0.34Fernandez-VelizElydjah Mendy: 140 passningar, xT 0.22MendyEnzo Tacafred: 111 passningar, xT 0.2TacafredWalid Bouabdelli: 90 passningar, xT -0.34BouabdelliKouroufia Kebe: 87 passningar, xT 0.57KebeEnzo Basilio: 83 passningar, xT 0.12BasilioIlyes Housni: 78 passningar, xT 0.54HousniZakaria Fdaouch: 68 passningar, xT 0.3FdaouchYannis Nahounou: 47 passningar, xT 0.04NahounouHéliohdino Tavares Correia: 45 passningar, xT 0.05CorreiaJérémy Pierre Sincère Gélin: 42 passningar, xT 0.04Gélin
    Dunkerque
    Allan Linguet: 188 passningar, xT 0.68LinguetOpa Sanganté: 184 passningar, xT 0.38SangantéBram Lagae: 166 passningar, xT 0.26LagaeJordan Morel: 127 passningar, xT 0.11MorelVictor Mayela: 84 passningar, xT 0.28MayelaAdrien Lebeau: 82 passningar, xT 0.11LebeauAlex Daho: 74 passningar, xT 0.41DahoMaxence André Prévot: 65 passningar, xT 0.04PrévotThéna Massock: 48 passningar, xT -0.01MassockThomas Robinet: 41 passningar, xT 0.59RobinetLenny Vallier: 35 passningar, xT 0.15Vallier
    The goalkeepersEnzo Basilio (Nancy)Maxence André Prévot (Dunkerque)
    Saves55
    Save %83%46%
    xG prevented64%44%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Nancy
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dunkerque
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Nancy vs Dunkerque according to our model?

    The model gives Dunkerque a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nancy 29%, draw 30%, Dunkerque 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.