01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Montpellier or draw (X2)71%
- Under 3.5 goals82%
Ligue 2Stade Marcel Picot, Nancy29°7 km/h
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Nancyvs
MontpellierThe model's lean: 2 · Montpellier (42%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.35 (+16 %)
Nancy – Montpellier · Ligue 2
1 · Nancy 28%X 30%42% Montpellier · 2
28%
30%
42%
Analysis: Nancy – Montpellier
Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work
Montpellier have had the upper hand in their two recent encounters with Nancy, both ending in victories for the visitors. Yet, with such a small sample size, the head-to-head record offers only a whisper of insight compared to the louder signal of current form and expected goals.
Nancy, despite the comfort of playing at home, find themselves grappling with the numbers. Their expected goals sit at a modest 0.99, hinting at a struggle to find the back of the net against a Montpellier side projected at 1.23. The bookmakers, along with the model, lean towards Montpellier with a 42% chance of taking all three points. The most likely outcomes — a 1-1 draw or a narrow 0-1 defeat — echo the cautious tale told by these numbers.
38%. That's the probability for over 2.5 goals, suggesting that goals could be at a premium. The betting markets have latched onto this potential for a low-scoring affair. Pinnacle is offering under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.9, with a model-backed edge of 18%. For the more adventurous punters, the under 1.5 goals bet holds tantalizing value at 3.35 with both Betsafe and Betsson, presenting a 16% edge.
Montpellier may have their noses ahead, but the true intrigue of this fixture lies not in the outright result but in its potential scarcity of goals. While Nancy might dream of disrupting the odds, the sharpest angle here is to back a game of few chances, where defenses could just have the final say.
NancyForm LDWWD
Key players
- Patrick OuotroFxG 0.14 · xT 0.03
- Zakaria FdaouchLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
- Jérémy Pierre Sincère GélinCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
MontpellierForm WWLDD
Key players
- Nicolas PaysRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
- Yael MouangaCBxG 0.21 · xT 0.12
- Théo Sainte-LuceLBxG 0.42 · xT 0.24
Match prediction: Nancy – Montpellier
Predicted score matrix
Montpellier →
Nancy →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–011.3%
0–113.0%
0–28.2%
0–33.4%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–010.4%
1–113.6%
1–28.1%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–05.3%
2–16.5%
2–24.0%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–01.8%
3–12.2%
3–21.3%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.0-113%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.1-010%
- 5.0-28%
Expected goals
0,99–1,23
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+7%
Under 2,562%
@1.83EV+13%
Over 2,538%
@2.00
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Montpellier or draw (X2)71%
- Under 2.5 goals62%
- Nicolas Pays to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals38%
- Nicolas Pays to score25%
- Julien Laporte to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.535% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+16%
- Under 1.535% probability@3.35BetssonEV+16%
- Under 1.535% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+16%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Nancy | X | 2 · Montpellier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.68 | 3.25 | EV+ 2% 2.45 |
| Betsson | 2.68 | 3.25 | EV+ 2% 2.45 |
| Nordicbet | 2.68 | 3.25 | EV+ 2% 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | EV+ 6% 3.48 | EV+ 6% 2.55 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:12
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Nancy win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 3.17 to 2.63 (−17%).
1-17 %
38 %28 %
3.17 → 2.63
X+4 %
32 %22 %
3.34 → 3.48
2+13 %
44 %34 %
2.25 → 2.55
Over 2,5+4 %
54 %44 %
1.93 → 2.00
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesNancy 0Draw 0Montpellier 2
Goals: 1–7 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Nancy
Montpellier
Montpellier (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Nancy
Montpellier
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Nancy
Montpellier
| The goalkeepers | Enzo Tacafred (Nancy) | Simon Ngapandouetnbu (Montpellier) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 1 | 3 |
| Save % | 100% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 20% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Nancy vs Montpellier according to our model?
The model gives Montpellier a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nancy 28%, draw 30%, Montpellier 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.