Nantes vs Rodez: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

Ligue 221 August 2026Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes20°16 km/h

Nantes

Rodez

The model's lean: 2 · Rodez (40%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Nantes 32%X 29%40% Rodez · 2

32%

29%

40%

Analysis: Nantes – Rodez

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A 40% chance for Rodez to triumph away at Nantes stands out as a statistically intriguing proposition, especially with the model tipping the scale in their favour. Nantes, despite playing on familiar turf, only hold a slim 32% chance of victory. The numbers suggest a match that is closely contested, with both teams having expected goals hovering just above one — Nantes at 1.12 and Rodez slightly higher at 1.22. In essence, don't expect a goalfest; these figures hint at a cagey affair.

Nantes haven't been in formidable form recently, and with Rodez showing a higher probability of winning, the smart money might lean towards the visitors. Weather doesn't enter the equation this time, so there are no external factors muddying the waters. The model's anticipated most likely scorelines of 1-1 at 14%, followed by 0-1 and 1-0, underscore the idea of a low-scoring tie being the order of the day.

Rodez, emboldened by their favourable odds and recent displays, might just have the upper hand in this matchup. The over/under 2.5 goals market hints at a tilt towards the under, with only a 41% chance of seeing a trio of goals or more. This further strengthens the prediction of a tight contest, where defensive resilience may overshadow attacking flair.

Rodez's slight edge in the expected goals department could translate into a slender victory, likely by a 1-0 margin, with the odds of this outcome sitting at 11%. For the punters looking for value, consider Rodez to win at the odds of 2.60 with Bet365. Given their edge in the models, this wager carries a tantalizing potential return. As the numbers suggest, this matchup could very well see Rodez sneaking a win, leaving Nantes to rue missed opportunities.

Nantes

Form LL

Key players

Herba GuirassyLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.05
Ibrahima SissokoCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Frédéric GuilbertCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.34

Rodez

Form WWDWL

Key players

Ibrahima BaldéFxG 0.40 · xT 0.06
Loni LaurentCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Mathis MagninCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Nantes – Rodez

Predicted score matrix

Rodez →

Nantes →

0–010.0%

0–111.4%

0–27.2%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.4%

1–113.6%

1–28.0%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.1%

2–17.4%

2–24.5%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.3%

3–12.8%

3–21.7%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,12–1,22

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.90EV+11%

Over 2,541%

@1.80

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rodez or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rodez or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Ibrahima Baldé to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Bahereba Guirassy to score26%
Ibrahima Sissoko to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Rodez40% probability@4.40BetsafeEV+74%reference odds
2 · Rodez40% probability@4.40BetssonEV+74%reference odds
2 · Rodez40% probability@4.40NordicbetEV+74%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nantes	X	2 · Rodez
Betsafe	1.70	EV+ 4% 3.60	EV+ 74% 4.40
Betsson	1.70	EV+ 4% 3.60	EV+ 74% 4.40
Nordicbet	1.70	EV+ 4% 3.60	EV+ 74% 4.40

Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Rodez win since 17 August — the odds have shortened from 4.80 to 4.40 (−8%).

1+3 %

57 %52 %

1.65 → 1.70

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.60

2-8 %

22 %17 %

4.80 → 4.40

Over 2,5-3 %

53 %48 %

1.85 → 1.80

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nantes

Rodez

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nantes (1–3)

Rodez (3–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nantes

Rodez

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nantes

Rodez

The goalkeepers	Maxime Dupé (Nantes)	Mathis Magnin (Rodez)
Saves	5	4
Save %	63%	100%
xG prevented	24%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nantes vs Rodez according to our model?

The model gives Rodez a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nantes 32%, draw 29%, Rodez 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.