01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Pau or draw (1X)65%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Ligue 2Nouste Camp, Pau17°8 km/h
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Pauvs
DunkerqueThe model's lean: 1 · Pau (39%)
Pau – Dunkerque · Ligue 2
1 · Pau 39%X 27%34% Dunkerque · 2
39%
27%
34%
Analysis: Pau – Dunkerque
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Pau's struggle against Dunkerque since 2023 is unmistakable—two meetings and two losses. While the sample is small and less relevant than current form, it does create an air of tension. The model, however, nudges us towards the hosts, assigning them a 39% win probability. With Pau's expected goals at 1.46 slightly edging Dunkerque's 1.36, there's a case to be made for a narrow home victory, despite the historical headwinds.
Yet, the forecast reveals a tight contest. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 12%, followed by a 2-1 win for Pau at 9%. These numbers suggest a balanced affair, though leaning slightly towards Pau if you trust the model's whisper. The over 2.5 goals probability at 54% nods towards a moderately open game, yet not a chaotic one. Both teams finding the net at 57% aligns with the stats, hinting at an exchange of goals.
The visitors are no pushovers, their 34% win probability serving as a reminder of their competitive edge, reinforced by their perfect head-to-head record against Pau since 2023.
Given these dynamics, a 1-1 draw seems a pragmatic forecast, with the over 2.5 goals not entirely off the table but less assured. For the cautious bettor, sticking with the 1-1 or backing Pau for a slim win might be sensible.
PauForm LWLDD
Key players
- Babacar LeyeFxG 0.89 · xT -0.04
- Joseph KaluluLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
- Hacène BenaliFxG 0.04 · xT -0.04
DunkerqueForm WDLLD
Key players
- Thomas RobinetFxG 0.42 · xT 0.11
- Adrien LebeauLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
- Mohamet Airam Ramos WadeCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Pau – Dunkerque
Predicted score matrix
Dunkerque →
Pau →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–17.8%
0–25.5%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.2%
1–28.0%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.4%
2–18.6%
2–25.9%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.2%
3–22.9%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,46–1,36
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
–
Over 2,554%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Pau or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Jessy Benet to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Thomas Robinet to score28%
- Théna Massock to be booked23%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesPau 0Draw 0Dunkerque 2
Goals: 1–6 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Pau
Dunkerque
Pau (4–5)
Dunkerque (8–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Pau
Dunkerque
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Pau
Dunkerque
| The goalkeepers | Brice Maubleu (Pau) | Maxence André Prévot (Dunkerque) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 6 |
| Save % | 81% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Pau vs Dunkerque according to our model?
The model gives Pau a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pau 39%, draw 27%, Dunkerque 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.