01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Pau to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Ligue 2Nouste Camp, Pau20°0,4 mm15 km/h
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Pauvs
NancyThe model's lean: 1 · Pau (47%)
Pau – Nancy · Ligue 2
1 · Pau 47%X 28%25% Nancy · 2
47%
28%
25%
Analysis: Pau – Nancy
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
47% — that's the number that leaps off the page when we assess this clash between Pau FC and Nancy. The model gives Pau FC a clear edge in terms of victory probability, pointing to them as the likely victors in this Ligue 2 showdown. With two matches in the head-to-head record since 2023, Nancy might feel they have the upper hand with a win and a draw, but the sample is small and doesn't outweigh the current form and expected goals.
Pau FC is aiming to leverage the model's expectations, with an anticipated 1.61 expected goals compared to Nancy's modest 1.05. This suggests a tight contest, with Pau FC having the better chance to edge it, particularly in front of their home fans. The most likely scorelines further underline this point: a 1-1 draw holds at 12%, while a 1-0 victory for Pau FC isn't far behind at 11%. Given these figures, expecting a narrow home win seems quite reasonable.
Nancy, with a 25% chance of victory, will have to pull out all the stops to defy the odds stacked against them. The 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring suggest a match that could tilt either way in terms of goals. But the absence of any disruptive weather means the scoring likelihood remains stable, with no hidden meteorological variables to muddy the waters.
Nancy's slight psychological advantage from their head-to-head record is overshadowed by a more pressing reality: Pau FC's 47% chance of victory offers tantalizing value for punters. At odds of 2.29 with Pinnacle, 2.25 with Betsafe, and 2.25 with Betsson, the home side presents a clear betting opportunity, boasting a 7% edge at Pinnacle and a 5% edge with Betsafe and Betsson. The sharpest angle? Betting on Pau FC to secure a home win with those enticing odds.
PauForm LLLLW
Key players
- Joseph KaluluLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
- Axel BambaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
- Axel DodoteCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
NancyForm DWWDL
Key players
- Brandon BokangouFxG 0.33 · xT 0.00
- Zakaria FdaouchLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
- Ilyes HousniRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Pau – Nancy
Predicted score matrix
Nancy →
Pau →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.4%
0–17.0%
0–23.9%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–010.9%
1–112.2%
1–26.2%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.0%
2–19.5%
2–25.0%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–04.8%
3–15.1%
3–22.7%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.8%
4+–12.9%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,61–1,05
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@2.00EV+1%
Over 2,550%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Pau to win47%
- Under 2.5 goals50%
- Giovani Versini to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Giovani Versini to score33%
- Kouroufia Kebe to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Pau47% probability@2.29PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Pau47% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Pau47% probability@2.18BetssonEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Pau | X | 2 · Nancy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 2.18 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Betsson | EV+ 2% 2.18 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 2.18 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 7% 2.29 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
Odds updated 17 Aug, 17:35
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesPau 0Draw 1Nancy 1
Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Pau
Nancy
Pau (1–1)
Nancy (0–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Pau
Nancy
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Pau
Nancy
| The goalkeepers | Brice Maubleu (Pau) | Enzo Basilio (Nancy) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 4 |
| Save % | 93% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 85% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Pau vs Nancy according to our model?
The model gives Pau a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pau 47%, draw 28%, Nancy 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.