Red Star vs Sochaux: Prediction & Odds (14 Aug 2026)

Ligue 214 August 2026Stade Bauer, Saint-Ouen

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Red Star

Sochaux

The model's lean: 1 · Red Star (38%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sochaux @ 4.31 (+40 %)

1 · Red Star 38%X 30%33% Sochaux · 2

38%

30%

33%

Analysis: Red Star – Sochaux

Oscar Nilsson · 12 August 2026 · How the predictions work

A tight contest looms between Red Star and FC Sochaux-Montbeliard, with the model giving a slight edge to the hosts at 38% for a win. Both teams are evenly matched in expected goals, each pegged at 1.15, suggesting this could be a cagey affair lacking in free-scoring fireworks. Historically, matches with such balanced xG predictions tend to not stray far from the most probable outcomes, with our model pinpointing a cautious 1-1 at 14% likelihood.

Red Star, operating with a home advantage, might feel emboldened to push for that narrow 1-0 victory, also given an 11% chance by the model. Yet, FC Sochaux-Montbeliard are no slouches, with their winning odds sitting at a respectable 33%. This contest has the makings of a classic tactical duel where both sides know that a single goal could swing the balance.

The over/under 2.5 goals market leans towards the unders at 60%, and with both expected to score 1.15 each, the under is a sensible play. Historically low-scoring fixtures between these two mean the 40% probability for over 2.5 goals is less than enticing, especially as the weather plays no notable role this time, leaving the tactical setup to dominate the proceedings. Red Star's home form could give them the marginal advantage needed to eke out a low-scoring win, but it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion.

FC Sochaux-Montbeliard's ability to grind out results on the road keeps the draw in play at 30%, but they're just as likely to fall prey to Red Star's home advantage, particularly if the latter can capitalize on their slender model lean. The 1-0 or 1-1 outcomes seem the most prudent expectations here, with the balance of probability ever so slightly tipping toward Red Star.

A sharp betting angle emerges with Red Star's win priced attractively by Bet365 at 2.6 odds, representing solid value in a matchup where the home side holds a slight edge. While no outcome is guaranteed, the numbers paint a picture of a tight encounter where any marginal gains could be decisive. Red Star to win at these odds warrants a closer inspection as a value bet.

Red Star

Form WWDLW

Key players

Dylan DurivauxCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
Giovanni HaagCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
Balthazar Jean Philippe Marie PierretCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.10

Sochaux

Form L

Key players

Bendjaloud Salmata YoussoufRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Julien MassonCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
Benjamin GomelLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Red Star – Sochaux

Predicted score matrix

Sochaux →

Red Star →

0–010.4%

0–111.2%

0–26.6%

0–32.5%

0–4+0.9%

1–011.2%

1–113.6%

1–27.6%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.1%

2–06.7%

2–17.6%

2–24.4%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.6%

3–12.9%

3–21.7%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-011%
3.0-111%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,15–1,15

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.74EV+1%

Over 2,540%

@2.08

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Red Star or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Red Star or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Théo Magnin to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Théo Magnin to score18%
Mathieu Peybernes to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sochaux33% probability@4.31PinnacleEV+40%
2 · Sochaux33% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+32%
2 · Sochaux33% probability@4.05BetssonEV+32%

Bookmaker	1 · Red Star	X	2 · Sochaux
Betsafe	1.88	3.30	EV+ 32% 4.05
Betsson	1.88	3.30	EV+ 32% 4.05
Nordicbet	1.88	3.30	EV+ 32% 4.05
Pinnacle	1.85	EV+ 2% 3.45	EV+ 40% 4.31

Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:11

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Red Star

Sochaux

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Red Star (1–0)

Sochaux (0–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Red Star

Sochaux

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Red Star

Sochaux

The goalkeepers	Gaetan Poussin (Red Star)	Mehdi Jeannin (Sochaux)
Saves	2	4
Save %	100%	57%
xG prevented	100%	30%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Red Star vs Sochaux according to our model?

The model gives Red Star a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Red Star 38%, draw 30%, Sochaux 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.