01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Red Star to win51%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Ligue 2Stade Bauer, Saint-Ouen
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Red Starvs
MetzThe model's lean: 1 · Red Star (51%)
Red Star – Metz · Ligue 2
1 · Red Star 51%X 28%21% Metz · 2
51%
28%
21%
Analysis: Red Star – Metz
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
51% marks the model's confidence in Red Star's ability to secure a victory at home against Metz. This edge in probability is supported by Red Star's expected goals tally of 1.63 compared to Metz's 1.01, suggesting a higher likelihood of the hosts finding the net more frequently. Despite this, the most probable scoreline remains a 1-1 draw at 12%, reflecting Metz’s recent resilience with a seven-game unbeaten streak in the league.
The small head-to-head sample since 2023 should not overshadow the form dynamics, as Red Star's single win and draw against Metz offer limited predictive value. The model's lean towards a 1-0 or 2-1 result underscores a tight match-up, where Red Star's attacking potential may edge out Metz's defense. With the over 2.5 goals probability at just 49%, the match leans slightly towards a more conservative scoreline, yet both teams to score is a marginally likelier scenario at 52%.
This assessment hinges on the belief that Metz's unbeaten run may face a stern test against a numerically superior Red Star side.
Red StarForm WDDLW
Key players
- Kévin CabralFxG 0.28 · xT 0.03
- Damien DurandLWxG 0.41 · xT 0.26
- Samuel RenelCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
MetzForm WDDDW
Key players
- Pape Moussa FallFxG 0.90 · xT -0.04
- Jahyann PandoreCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.22
- Idris MohamedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Red Star – Metz
Predicted score matrix
Metz →
Red Star →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.4%
0–16.9%
0–23.7%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–011.2%
1–112.1%
1–26.0%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.4%
2–19.6%
2–24.9%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–05.1%
3–15.2%
3–22.6%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.0%
4+–13.1%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,63–1,01
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,607%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.86
Over 2,549%
@1.96
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Red Star to win51%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Kévin Cabral to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Kévin Cabral to score27%
- Jessy Deminguet to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Red Star51% probability@2.66PinnacleEV+35%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Red Star | X | 2 · Metz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 35% 2.66 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:13
Odds movement
1-2 %
38 %33 %
2.71 → 2.66
X0 %
32 %27 %
3.24 → 3.25
2+3 %
38 %33 %
2.63 → 2.70
Over 2,50 %
51 %46 %
1.95 → 1.96
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesRed Star 1Draw 1Metz 0
Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Metz are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Red Star
Metz
Red Star (5–6)
Metz (8–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Red Star
Metz
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Red Star
Metz
| The goalkeepers | Gaetan Poussin (Red Star) | Jonathan Fischer (Metz) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 15 |
| Save % | 75% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 63% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Red Star vs Metz according to our model?
The model gives Red Star a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Red Star 51%, draw 28%, Metz 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.