01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Reims or draw (X2)65%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Ligue 2Stade Bauer, Saint-Ouen
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Red Star1–4
ReimsThe model's lean: 2 · Reims (37%)
Red Star – Reims · Ligue 2
1 · Red Star 34%X 29%37% Reims · 2
34%
29%
37%
Analysis: Red Star – Reims
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Red Star's knack for grinding out results at home meets Reims' impressive unbeaten streak head-on. The model gives a slight edge to Reims at 37%, courtesy of their ten-match run without a loss. However, with Red Star close behind at 34% and a draw at 29%, this clash is finely poised. The expected goals are nearly neck and neck, with Red Star at 1.27 and Reims at 1.31, suggesting a tight contest. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13% reflects this balance, with the markets unsure whether either side has enough firepower to pull away decisively.
The 48% chance of over 2.5 goals underlines a potential for a cagey affair, and the 53% probability of both teams finding the net suggests narrow margins. Reims might be buoyed by their historical edge, having won once and drawn once in their last two encounters with Red Star, but the sample is too small to heavily influence expectations. Instead, focus shifts to their ongoing form, which underpins the model's lean towards the visitors despite the even contest forecasted by expected goals.
Red Star will likely try to leverage home advantage to disrupt Reims’ rhythm, given their close odds of victory. Yet, Reims' stability in the league presents a formidable challenge, as their ability to avoid defeat seems well-rehearsed. A 0-1 scoreline, pegged at 10%, feels plausible given these dynamics, as does a tight 1-0 in Red Star's favor (9%), should they seize an early lead and hold firm.
The real value emerges with Reims at odds of 2.70 with Bet365. Despite their marginal favoritism, the odds imply a tighter contest than their form suggests. Should their unbeaten run continue, backing Reims to nick a win could indeed be the sharpest angle for this encounter.
Red StarForm DLWDD
Key players
- Damien DurandLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.27
- Kévin CabralLWxG 0.27 · xT -0.01
- Théo MagninRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.29
ReimsForm DWDDW
Key players
- Ange Martial TiaCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
- N'Tamon Elie AhouononCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
- Samuel Junior KottoCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.06
Final score
1 – 4
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Red Star 34% · Draw 29% · Reims 37%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - ReimsBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,28fair 11,28-18 %
HitMatchresultat - Red Star 93Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,48fair 12,05-21 %
MissMatch prediction: Red Star – Reims
Predicted score matrix
Reims →
Red Star →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.0%
0–19.6%
0–26.5%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–09.3%
1–113.0%
1–28.3%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.1%
2–18.0%
2–25.2%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.6%
3–13.4%
3–22.2%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.4%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,27–1,31
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.77
Over 2,548%
@2.10
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Reims or draw (X2)65%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Yaya Kader Fofana to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Kémo Cissé to score23%
- Roman Mory Diaman Gbane to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Reims37% probability@2.80Paddy PowerEV+3%reference odds
- 1 · Red Star34% probability@3.03PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Red Star | X | 2 · Reims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.65 | 3.05 | 2.55 |
| Betsson | 2.65 | 3.05 | 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | 2.65 | 3.05 | 2.55 |
| Paddy Power | 2.40 | 3.20 | EV+ 3% 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 3.03 | 3.25 | 2.47 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 05:13
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Reims win since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 2.66 to 2.47 (−7%).
1+11 %
36 %31 %
2.73 → 3.03
X+3 %
32 %27 %
3.16 → 3.25
2-7 %
39 %34 %
2.66 → 2.47
Over 2,5+1 %
48 %43 %
2.06 → 2.09
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesRed Star 0Draw 1Reims 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Reims are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Red Star
Reims
Red Star (2–1)
Reims (6–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Red Star
Reims
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Red Star
Reims
| The goalkeepers | Gaetan Poussin (Red Star) | Tom Hulsmann (Reims) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 7 |
| Save % | 92% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 70% | 28% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Red Star vs Reims according to our model?
The model gives Reims a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Red Star 34%, draw 29%, Reims 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.