01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Reims to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Ligue 2Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims29°17 km/h
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Reimsvs
DunkerqueThe model's lean: 1 · Reims (58%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.85 (+5 %)
Reims – Dunkerque · Ligue 2
1 · Reims 58%X 23%20% Dunkerque · 2
58%
23%
20%
Analysis: Reims – Dunkerque
Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work
Reims are riding an impressive wave, unbeaten in their last eight league matches. This momentum positions them as firm favorites against Dunkerque, who are struggling to find their footing with a mere 20% probability of clinching a win. The model gives Reims a 58% chance of victory, highlighting their superior form and potential to dictate the pace of this clash.
The head-to-head record between these two sides is minimal, consisting of just two encounters since 2023. Reims haven't managed to secure a win against Dunkerque in these matchups, with a record of one draw and one loss. However, such a small sample size pales in comparison to Reims' current form and their expected goal tally of 1.90 against Dunkerque’s 1.07. It suggests that the hosts are likely to dominate proceedings, potentially translating their chances into a narrow victory.
Reims, with model-backed probabilities favoring them, are tipped to edge this match. The most plausible outcomes appear to be a 2-1 or 1-0 win, with the 1-1 draw also lurking as a possibility. The expected goals and the 57% chance of over 2.5 goals hint at an open game where both teams could find the net; the both-teams-to-score probability stands at 56%.
Weather conditions are absent from this analysis, meaning no external factors like rain or wind are influencing the model's over/under calculations. The 57% probability of over 2.5 goals is statistically significant. For bettors, this is where the sharpest edge emerges. The odds of 1.833 with Pinnacle present a 4% edge, making this the standout value bet. With Reims' attacking prowess and Dunkerque's vulnerability, the over 2.5 goals market is an enticing proposition.
ReimsForm WDDWD
Key players
- Hafiz Umar IbrahimFxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
- Keito NakamuraLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.14
- Teddy TeumaCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.22
DunkerqueForm LWLLW
Key players
- Thomas RobinetFxG 0.26 · xT 0.43
- Jordan MorelCMxG 0.08 · xT -0.03
- Allan LinguetRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Reims – Dunkerque
Predicted score matrix
Dunkerque →
Reims →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–15.2%
0–22.9%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–09.5%
1–110.7%
1–25.6%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.3%
2–19.9%
2–25.3%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.9%
3–16.3%
3–23.3%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–04.3%
4+–14.6%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,90–1,07
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@1.97
Over 2,557%
@1.85EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Reims to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Mohamed Hassouni Daramy to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Mohamed Hassouni Daramy to score33%
- Théna Massock to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.557% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+5%
- Over 2.557% probability@1.80BetsafeEV+2%
- Over 2.557% probability@1.80BetssonEV+2%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Reims | X | 2 · Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.68 | 3.60 | 4.65 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 3.60 | 4.65 |
| Nordicbet | 1.68 | 3.60 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 0% 1.74 | 3.76 | 4.48 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:35
Odds movement
1+2 %
57 %52 %
1.71 → 1.74
X-1 %
27 %22 %
3.81 → 3.76
2-3 %
23 %18 %
4.63 → 4.48
Over 2,5+1 %
54 %49 %
1.83 → 1.85
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesReims 0Draw 1Dunkerque 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Reims are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Reims
Dunkerque
Dunkerque (4–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Reims
Dunkerque
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Reims
Dunkerque
| The goalkeepers | Samuel Junior Kotto (Reims) | Bram Lagae (Dunkerque) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 1 | 2 |
| Save % | 100% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Reims vs Dunkerque according to our model?
The model gives Reims a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Reims 58%, draw 23%, Dunkerque 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.