Ligue 2Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims19°14 km/h

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    ReimsReims
    2–2
    GuingampGuingamp
    The model's lean: 1 · Reims (54%)Best value by the model: 2 · Guingamp @ 5.22 (+8 %)

    Reims – Guingamp · Ligue 2

    1 · Reims 54%X 25%21% Guingamp · 2

    Analysis: Reims – Guingamp

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Reims enter this match with a clear edge, holding a 54% probability of victory according to the model. With the hosts remaining unbeaten in their last 11 league matches, there's a palpable sense of momentum on their side. Add to that their perfect head-to-head record against Guingamp since 2023, even though it's just two matches, and the scale tips further in Reims' favor.

    The expected goals further underscore this advantage, with Reims projected at 1.84 compared to Guingamp's 1.11. Such a disparity suggests that the hosts are not just favorites on paper but likely to create more significant goal-scoring opportunities on the pitch. This aligns with the most likely scorelines, particularly the 2-1 and 1-0 outcomes, indicating a match where Reims could dominate but not without conceding.

    Despite Reims' formidable home form, Guingamp cannot be entirely written off. The visitors might find some solace in the model's 21% probability of snatching a win, though it remains a tall order. The 57% chance of both teams scoring hints at vulnerabilities in the Reims defense that Guingamp could exploit, even if just for a consolation goal.

    The over 2.5 goals market sits at a 56% probability, suggesting a leaning toward a more open affair. Considering the attacking prowess of Reims and the likelihood of Guingamp contributing at least one goal, the over appears the more favorable side to be on.

    For bettors seeking value, Unibet offers Reims to win at odds of 1.85, which aligns well with the model's strong lean towards the hosts. This bet captures the underlying dynamics of Reims' current form and their historical edge over Guingamp, both of which point to a probable home victory.

    ReimsReims
    Form WDDWW
    Key players
    • Ange Martial TiaCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.07
    • Daouda GuindoLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.16
    • Yaya FofanaCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.09
    GuingampGuingamp
    Form LLWLD
    Key players
    • Stanislas KieltFxG 0.42 · xT 0.02
    • Dylan LouiserreCDMxG 0.31 · xT 0.04
    • Amine HemiaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.01
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Reims 54% · Draw 25% · Guingamp 21%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - ReimsBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,39fair 5,95-9 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - GuingampBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,44fair 16,45-24 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Reims – Guingamp

    Predicted score matrix

    Guingamp →
    Reims →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.6%
    0–15.5%
    0–23.2%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–09.4%
    1–111.0%
    1–25.9%
    1–32.2%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–08.9%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–05.5%
    3–16.0%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–03.8%
    4+–14.2%
    4+–22.3%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    1,84–1,11
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @2.07
    Over 2,556%
    @1.79EV+1%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Reims to win54%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    45%

    Fair odds

    2.23

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Reims to win54%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Keito Nakamura to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Keito Nakamura to score30%
    • Albin Demouchy to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Guingamp21% probability@5.22PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • Over 2.556% probability@1.79PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · ReimsX2 · Guingamp
    Betsafe1.783.454.10
    Betsson1.783.454.10
    Nordicbet1.783.454.10
    Pinnacle1.693.80
    EV+ 8%
    5.22

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:31

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Reims win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 1.88 to 1.69 (−10%).

    1-10 %
    58 %48 %

    1.88 → 1.69

    X+2 %
    30 %20 %

    3.71 → 3.80

    2+37 %
    26 %16 %

    3.81 → 5.22

    Over 2,5+3 %
    59 %49 %

    1.74 → 1.79

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Reims 2Draw 0Guingamp 0
    Goals: 3–0 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Reims are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Reims
    Guingamp
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Reims (10–5)
    Guingamp (5–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Reims
    Samuel Junior Kotto: 204 passningar, xT 0.22KottoN'Tamon Elie Ahouonon: 197 passningar, xT 0.27AhouononDaouda Guindo: 152 passningar, xT 0.61GuindoTom Hulsmann: 118 passningar, xT 0.1HulsmannJean-Tryfose Mambuku: 113 passningar, xT 0.86MambukuAnge Martial Tia: 103 passningar, xT -0.11TiaThéo Leoni: 102 passningar, xT 0.19LeoniYaya Fofana: 74 passningar, xT 0.25FofanaMory Gbane: 62 passningar, xT 0.11GbaneMohamed Daramy: 47 passningar, xT -0.08DaramyArmel Junior Zohouri: 47 passningar, xT 0.16Zohouri
    Guingamp
    Albin Demouchy: 284 passningar, xT 0.42DemouchyDonatien Gomis: 256 passningar, xT 0.25GomisAdrian Ortola: 193 passningar, xT 0.08OrtolaDylan Louiserre: 184 passningar, xT 0.07LouiserreErwin Koffi: 127 passningar, xT 0.67KoffiAmine Hemia: 121 passningar, xT 0.03HemiaJérémie Matumona Makanga: 102 passningar, xT 0.62MakangaTom Ducrocq: 79 passningar, xT 0.11DucrocqTanguy Ahile: 77 passningar, xT 0.08AhileFlorent Sanchez Da Silva: 68 passningar, xT 0.24SilvaVimoj Muntu Wa Mungu: 63 passningar, xT 0.03Mungu
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Reims
    Samuel Junior Kotto: 204 passningar, xT 0.22KottoN'Tamon Elie Ahouonon: 197 passningar, xT 0.27AhouononDaouda Guindo: 152 passningar, xT 0.61GuindoTom Hulsmann: 118 passningar, xT 0.1HulsmannJean-Tryfose Mambuku: 113 passningar, xT 0.86MambukuAnge Martial Tia: 103 passningar, xT -0.11TiaThéo Leoni: 102 passningar, xT 0.19LeoniYaya Fofana: 74 passningar, xT 0.25FofanaMory Gbane: 62 passningar, xT 0.11GbaneMohamed Daramy: 47 passningar, xT -0.08DaramyArmel Junior Zohouri: 47 passningar, xT 0.16Zohouri
    Guingamp
    Albin Demouchy: 284 passningar, xT 0.42DemouchyDonatien Gomis: 256 passningar, xT 0.25GomisAdrian Ortola: 193 passningar, xT 0.08OrtolaDylan Louiserre: 184 passningar, xT 0.07LouiserreErwin Koffi: 127 passningar, xT 0.67KoffiAmine Hemia: 121 passningar, xT 0.03HemiaJérémie Matumona Makanga: 102 passningar, xT 0.62MakangaTom Ducrocq: 79 passningar, xT 0.11DucrocqTanguy Ahile: 77 passningar, xT 0.08AhileFlorent Sanchez Da Silva: 68 passningar, xT 0.24SilvaVimoj Muntu Wa Mungu: 63 passningar, xT 0.03Mungu
    The goalkeepersTom Hulsmann (Reims)Adrian Ortola (Guingamp)
    Saves1112
    Save %69%67%
    xG prevented52%71%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Reims
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Guingamp
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Reims vs Guingamp according to our model?

    The model gives Reims a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Reims 54%, draw 25%, Guingamp 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    GrenobleGrenoble
    1 48%X 28%2 24%
    The model called the outcome
    MontpellierMontpellier
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    1 42%X 27%2 31%
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.