Rodez vs Grenoble: Prediction & Odds (11 Sept 2026)

Ligue 211 September 2026Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez14°18 km/h

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Rodez

Grenoble

The model's lean: 1 · Rodez (54%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.85 (+19 %)

1 · Rodez 54%X 28%18% Grenoble · 2

54%

28%

18%

Analysis: Rodez – Grenoble

Marcus Johansson · 10 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Rodez and Grenoble have split their last four meetings evenly, with each team claiming two victories. This head-to-head record offers little clarity, given the small sample size, which shifts the focus to current form and expected goals. Rodez comes into this match as the clear favorite, with the model giving them a 54% chance of winning. The expected goals data suggests a tight match, with Rodez projected to score 1.49 compared to Grenoble's 0.88.

The model's most likely scoreline predictions highlight a narrow win for Rodez, with 1-0 (14%) being the leading candidate. A 1-1 draw (13%) and a 2-0 victory for the hosts (10%) are also in the mix, but the overall probabilities suggest a low-scoring affair. The over 2.5 goals is rated at just 42%.

The sharpest angle here lies in the under 1.5 goals market. With odds of 3.6 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and the model assigning a 31% probability to this outcome, there's a notable 12% edge. Given the modest goal probabilities, this bet encapsulates both value and the essence of this tactical battle in Ligue 2.

Rodez

Form WLWDL

Key players

Ibrahima BaldéFxG 0.33 · xT 0.02
Kenny NageraFxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
Raphaël LipinskiCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.15

Grenoble

Form LDLWL

Key players

Samba DibaFxG 0.18 · xT 0.13
Leonardo CerriFxG 0.44 · xT 0.00
Baptiste MouazanFxG 0.07 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Rodez – Grenoble

Predicted score matrix

Grenoble →

Rodez →

0–09.7%

0–17.8%

0–23.6%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–013.5%

1–112.6%

1–25.4%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.4%

2–19.1%

2–24.0%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–05.2%

3–14.6%

3–22.0%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.7%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-113%
3.2-010%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,49–0,88

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@2.07EV+14%

Over 2,542%

@1.79

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rodez to win54%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rodez to win54%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Mathis Touho to score44%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Mathis Touho to score44%
Yohann Magnin to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.531% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
Under 1.531% probability@3.85BetssonEV+19%reference odds
Under 1.531% probability@3.85NordicbetEV+19%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rodez	X	2 · Grenoble
Betsafe	1.72	3.45	4.40
Betsson	1.72	3.45	4.40
Nordicbet	1.72	3.45	4.40
Pinnacle	1.74	EV+ 5% 3.71	4.98

Odds updated 11 Sept, 11:39

Odds movement

1+2 %

57 %52 %

1.69 → 1.74

X+5 %

29 %24 %

3.54 → 3.71

2-5 %

21 %16 %

5.23 → 4.98

Over 2,5-2 %

55 %50 %

1.82 → 1.79

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 05/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Rodez 2Draw 0Grenoble 2

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rodez

Grenoble

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rodez (11–11)

Grenoble (6–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rodez

Grenoble

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rodez

Grenoble

The goalkeepers	Lucas Margueron (Rodez)	Alexandre Olliero (Grenoble)
Saves	12	15
Save %	55%	71%
xG prevented	20%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rodez

Fixtures, form & tips

Grenoble

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rodez vs Grenoble according to our model?

The model gives Rodez a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rodez 54%, draw 28%, Grenoble 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.