Ligue 2Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez19°30,5 mm19 km/h

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    RodezRodez
    2–2
    PauPau
    The model's lean: 1 · Rodez (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Pau @ 4.79 (+25 %)

    Rodez – Pau · Ligue 2

    1 · Rodez 48%X 26%26% Pau · 2

    Analysis: Rodez – Pau

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Rodez is pegged as the favorites with a 48% chance of claiming victory, yet a small sample from head-to-head clashes complicates the narrative. The two meetings since 2023 have seen Rodez fail to secure a win against Pau, managing just a draw and a loss. While the model leans towards the hosts, the historical encounters suggest they might struggle to assert dominance.

    The match is characterized by narrow margins, with the most probable scorelines clustering around 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1. Rodez is expected to edge slightly ahead in terms of expected goals at 1.47 compared to Pau's 1.29. This suggests a tight contest where defensive discipline could trump attacking flair. The model sees a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood of both teams netting, indicating a slight lean towards a higher-scoring affair with goals at both ends.

    While the numbers favor Rodez, there's a noteworthy betting angle with the visitors. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.1 on Pau, presenting a 7% value edge according to the model's 26% chance for a Pau upset. This is a tempting proposition for those looking to back the underdogs, despite the statistical lean towards the home side.

    The crux of the matchup lies in Rodez's ability to break through a Pau side that has proven to be a tricky opponent. While the hosts are marginally tipped to win, the past encounters and evenly matched expected goals suggest a closely fought battle that could swing either way.

    In betting terms, the sharpest edge lies in the 4.1 odds on Pau's win. This value, spread across multiple bookmakers, stands as an intriguing option for those willing to wager against the model's favorite, hinting at a potentially profitable deviation from the mainstream prediction.

    RodezRodez
    Form WDWLW
    Key players
    • Ibrahima BaldéFxG 0.40 · xT 0.04
    • Mathis TouhoFxG 0.54 · xT 0.16
    • Raphaël LipinskiCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
    PauPau
    Form LLLWL
    Key players
    • Joseph KaluluLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
    • Giovani VersiniRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.25
    • Axel BambaCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.04
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Rodez 48% · Draw 26% · Pau 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - PauBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,52fair 11,36+19 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Rodez AveyronBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,68fair 8,77-47 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Rodez – Pau

    Predicted score matrix

    Pau →
    Rodez →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.6%
    0–17.8%
    0–25.3%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–08.9%
    1–112.3%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.3%
    1–4+1.4%
    2
    2–06.8%
    2–18.8%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–14.3%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.7%
    4+–12.2%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,47–1,29
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.19EV+4%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.65

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Rodez to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    32%

    Fair odds

    3.11

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Rodez to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Taïryk Arconte to score39%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Taïryk Arconte to score39%
    • Cheikh Fall to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Pau26% probability@4.79PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
    • 2 · Pau26% probability@4.60BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
    • 2 · Pau26% probability@4.60BetssonEV+20%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · RodezX2 · Pau
    Betsafe1.62
    EV+ 1%
    3.80
    EV+ 20%
    4.60
    Betsson1.62
    EV+ 1%
    3.80
    EV+ 20%
    4.60
    Nordicbet1.62
    EV+ 1%
    3.80
    EV+ 20%
    4.60
    Pinnacle1.68
    EV+ 9%
    4.12
    EV+ 25%
    4.79

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Rodez win since 22 August — the odds have shortened from 1.81 to 1.68 (−7%).

    1-7 %
    59 %49 %

    1.81 → 1.68

    X+11 %
    29 %19 %

    3.70 → 4.12

    2+15 %
    28 %18 %

    4.15 → 4.79

    Over 2,5-5 %
    60 %50 %

    1.74 → 1.65

    Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Rodez 0Draw 1Pau 1
    Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rodez
    Pau
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Rodez (8–5)
    Pau (1–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rodez
    Loni Laurent: 167 passningar, xT 0.18LaurentRaphaël Lipinski: 158 passningar, xT 0.32LipinskiMathis Magnin: 141 passningar, xT 0.25MagninJordan Mendes: 89 passningar, xT 0.06MendesAntonin Cartillier: 58 passningar, xT 0.72CartillierJean Lambert Evan's Allan: 58 passningar, xT 0.64AllanLucas Margueron: 55 passningar, xT 0.02MargueronCorentin Issanchou Roubiou: 52 passningar, xT 0.57RoubiouDamjan Pavlović: 38 passningar, xT 0.09PavlovićIbrahima Baldé: 25 passningar, xT 0.1BaldéOctave Joly: 22 passningar, xT 0.03Joly
    Pau
    Gaëtan Paquiez: 161 passningar, xT 0.53PaquiezAxel Dodote: 158 passningar, xT 0.33DodoteAxel Bamba: 141 passningar, xT 0.1BambaTom Pouilly: 133 passningar, xT 0.49PouillyJessy Benet: 101 passningar, xT 0.13BenetBrice Maubleu: 69 passningar, xT 0MaubleuJoseph Kalulu: 69 passningar, xT 0.1KaluluCheikh Fall: 49 passningar, xT 0.03FallGiovani Versini: 46 passningar, xT 0.43VersiniLorenzo Rajot: 42 passningar, xT 0.36RajotHacène Benali: 32 passningar, xT -0.28Benali
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rodez
    Loni Laurent: 167 passningar, xT 0.18LaurentRaphaël Lipinski: 158 passningar, xT 0.32LipinskiMathis Magnin: 141 passningar, xT 0.25MagninJordan Mendes: 89 passningar, xT 0.06MendesAntonin Cartillier: 58 passningar, xT 0.72CartillierJean Lambert Evan's Allan: 58 passningar, xT 0.64AllanLucas Margueron: 55 passningar, xT 0.02MargueronCorentin Issanchou Roubiou: 52 passningar, xT 0.57RoubiouDamjan Pavlović: 38 passningar, xT 0.09PavlovićIbrahima Baldé: 25 passningar, xT 0.1BaldéOctave Joly: 22 passningar, xT 0.03Joly
    Pau
    Gaëtan Paquiez: 161 passningar, xT 0.53PaquiezAxel Dodote: 158 passningar, xT 0.33DodoteAxel Bamba: 141 passningar, xT 0.1BambaTom Pouilly: 133 passningar, xT 0.49PouillyJessy Benet: 101 passningar, xT 0.13BenetBrice Maubleu: 69 passningar, xT 0MaubleuJoseph Kalulu: 69 passningar, xT 0.1KaluluCheikh Fall: 49 passningar, xT 0.03FallGiovani Versini: 46 passningar, xT 0.43VersiniLorenzo Rajot: 42 passningar, xT 0.36RajotHacène Benali: 32 passningar, xT -0.28Benali
    The goalkeepersLucas Margueron (Rodez)Brice Maubleu (Pau)
    Saves815
    Save %67%88%
    xG prevented38%60%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Rodez
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Pau
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rodez vs Pau according to our model?

    The model gives Rodez a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rodez 48%, draw 26%, Pau 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.