01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Saint-Étienne to win65%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Ligue 2Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Étienne18°11 km/h
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Saint-Étienne4–0
GrenobleThe model's lean: 1 · Saint-Étienne (65%)Best value by the model: 2 · Grenoble @ 7.26 (+5 %)
Saint-Étienne – Grenoble · Ligue 2
1 · Saint-Étienne 65%X 21%14% Grenoble · 2
65%
21%
14%
Analysis: Saint-Étienne – Grenoble
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Saint-Étienne holds a commanding 65% probability of winning against Grenoble, revealing the hosts as clear favorites despite their inability to secure a win in the two prior head-to-head meetings. Those draws were their only recent encounters, a limited sample that weighs less than the current form and expected goals metrics. The numbers suggest the home side's attacking prowess should outmatch the visitors, with expected goals standing at 1.99 to 0.87 in favor of Saint-Étienne.
The model highlights 2-0 and 1-0 as the most likely outcomes, each at 11%, pointing to a potential low-scoring victory for the hosts. This aligns with the expected goals data indicating a substantial gap between the two teams. Grenoble's defensive setup may struggle to contain Saint-Étienne's offense, underlined by the model's suggestion of a 54% chance of the match featuring over 2.5 goals. Yet, with only a 50% chance of both teams finding the net, the visitors' chances of scoring appear slim.
Saint-Étienne's form on paper contrasts with the modest head-to-head results. However, the current dynamics lean heavily towards them to break that pattern. The visitors must defy their underdog status, hinted at by their mere 14% likelihood of victory, to snatch anything from this clash. Their chances seem thin against an attacking line-up expected to assert dominance on home turf.
The betting market reflects Saint-Étienne's favoritism, and there’s value in backing them at any respectable odds. Despite the solid edge in stats and probabilities, the odds are something to watch closely. For those hunting value, if any bookmaker offers odds that reflect less than the model's 65% win probability for Saint-Étienne, it could be an opportunity to consider.
Saint-ÉtienneForm LWDWW
Key players
- Maxime BernauerCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
- Jakob Breum MartinsenCAMxG 0.75 · xT 0.03
- Kévin PedroLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
GrenobleForm DWWLD
Key players
- Yadaly DiabyLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
- Nesta ZahuiRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.18
- Matthéo XantippeLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
Final score
4 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Saint-Étienne 65% · Draw 21% · Grenoble 14%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - GrenobleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 24,46fair 29,93-18 %
MissMatchresultat - Saint EtienneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,40fair 5,76-24 %
MissMatch prediction: Saint-Étienne – Grenoble
Predicted score matrix
Grenoble →
Saint-Étienne →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–14.7%
0–22.2%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–011.1%
1–110.2%
1–24.3%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–011.4%
2–19.9%
2–24.3%
2–31.2%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–07.5%
3–16.5%
3–22.8%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–05.9%
4+–15.1%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
1,99–0,87
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.19
Over 2,554%
@1.69
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Saint-Étienne to win65%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Lucas Frédéric Stassin to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Lucas Frédéric Stassin to score34%
- Lucas Bernadou to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Grenoble14% probability@7.26PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- X · Draw21% probability@4.83PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Saint-Étienne | X | 2 · Grenoble |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.41 | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| Betsson | 1.41 | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| Nordicbet | 1.41 | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | EV+ 1% 4.83 | EV+ 5% 7.26 |
Odds updated 22 Aug, 05:16
Odds movement
1+1 %
70 %65 %
1.39 → 1.41
X+1 %
22 %17 %
4.79 → 4.83
2+2 %
16 %11 %
7.09 → 7.26
Over 2,5+2 %
59 %54 %
1.67 → 1.69
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 22/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSaint-Étienne 0Draw 2Grenoble 0
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Saint-Étienne
Grenoble
Saint-Étienne (6–1)
Grenoble (2–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
Grenoble
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
Grenoble
| The goalkeepers | Julien Le Cardinal (Saint-Étienne) | Alexandre Olliero (Grenoble) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 3 |
| Save % | 100% | 43% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 13% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Saint-Étienne vs Grenoble according to our model?
The model gives Saint-Étienne a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Saint-Étienne 65%, draw 21%, Grenoble 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.