01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Saint-Étienne to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Ligue 2Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Étienne23°13 km/h
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Saint-Étienne3–1
MontpellierThe model's lean: 1 · Saint-Étienne (58%)Best value by the model: 2 · Montpellier @ 5.43 (+2 %)
Saint-Étienne – Montpellier · Ligue 2
1 · Saint-Étienne 58%X 23%19% Montpellier · 2
58%
23%
19%
Analysis: Saint-Étienne – Montpellier
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Saint-Étienne have a 58% chance of victory against Montpellier, a matchup heavily tilted in the hosts' favor. However, the visitors bring their own intrigue. Despite the odds, Montpellier's recent five-match unbeaten streak suggests resilience. While the hosts' four consecutive wins underline their current form, the clash of these dynamics makes for a compelling contest.
Historical performance at home bolsters Saint-Étienne's position, with a 65% win rate in 20 matches. Yet, the head-to-head data since 2023 is limited to just two games, both won by Saint-Étienne. This small sample size, though positive for the hosts, should be weighed against broader form and expected goals. The model's lean towards a 1-1 or 1-0 result points to a tight match, with expected goals favoring the hosts at 1.77 compared to Montpellier's 0.99.
Despite Saint-Étienne's statistical edge, there's notable value on Montpellier achieving an upset. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 5.5 for an away victory, there's a 3% value edge based on the model's 19% away win probability. Betting against the grain could be rewarding, especially if Montpellier's resilience trumps the hosts' favored status.
Saint-ÉtienneForm DWWWW
Key players
- Kévin PedroRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
- Áron CsongvaiCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.10
- Zuriko DavitashviliLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.23
MontpellierForm DDWWD
Key players
- Nicolas PaysRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.16
- Lacine Megnan PaveFxG 0.27 · xT 0.12
- Nordan MukieleLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.19
Final score
3 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Saint-Étienne 58% · Draw 23% · Montpellier 19%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - MontpellierBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 17,50fair 20,81-16 %
MissMatchresultat - Saint EtienneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,46fair 6,67-33 %
HitMatch prediction: Saint-Étienne – Montpellier
Predicted score matrix
Montpellier →
Saint-Étienne →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–16.0%
0–23.1%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–010.8%
1–111.4%
1–25.5%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.9%
2–19.8%
2–24.9%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–05.8%
3–15.8%
3–22.9%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–13.8%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,77–0,99
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@2.12EV+1%
Over 2,552%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Saint-Étienne to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Lucas Frédéric Stassin to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Lucas Frédéric Stassin to score33%
- Théo Chennahi to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Montpellier19% probability@5.43PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- Under 3.570% probability@1.45BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- Under 3.570% probability@1.45BetssonEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Saint-Étienne | X | 2 · Montpellier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.52 | 3.95 | 5.30 |
| Betsson | 1.52 | 3.95 | 5.30 |
| Nordicbet | 1.52 | 3.95 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.20 | EV+ 2% 5.43 |
Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:31
Odds movement
1+4 %
63 %58 %
1.53 → 1.60
X-2 %
25 %20 %
4.28 → 4.20
2-1 %
20 %15 %
5.51 → 5.43
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSaint-Étienne 2Draw 0Montpellier 0
Goals: 3–0 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Saint-Etienne come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Montpellier are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- Saint-Etienne win 65% of their home matches all-time (20 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Saint-Étienne
Montpellier
Saint-Étienne (13–3)
Montpellier (3–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
Montpellier
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
Montpellier
| The goalkeepers | Gautier Larsonneur (Saint-Étienne) | Simon Ngapandouetnbu (Montpellier) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 19 |
| Save % | 73% | 95% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 81% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Saint-Étienne vs Montpellier according to our model?
The model gives Saint-Étienne a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Saint-Étienne 58%, draw 23%, Montpellier 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.