Nürnberg vs Hannover 96: Prediction & Odds (11 Sept 2026)

2. Bundesliga11 September 2026Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nürnberg16°11 km/h

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NürnbergPossession control

Hannover 96Possession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Hannover 96 (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.88 (+16 %)

1 · Nürnberg 37%X 25%38% Hannover 96 · 2

37%

25%

38%

Analysis: Nürnberg – Hannover 96

Anna Karlsson · 10 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Nürnberg's unbeaten streak in league matches stretches to nine, a testament to their recent resilience. This ability to grind out results positions them as a formidable force on their home ground. However, Hannover 96 arrives with a slight edge in the model probabilities at 38%, suggesting a keenly balanced contest. The visitors' high press could disrupt Nürnberg's possession-oriented style, setting the stage for a tactical chess game.

Historically, the head-to-head record, albeit based on a small sample of four matches, tilts slightly towards Hannover with two wins. Yet, Nürnberg's capacity to score in nine consecutive league games underscores their attacking potential. Both teams' expected goals figures, Nürnberg's 1.53 and Hannover's 1.60, indicate an evenly matched offensive threat, hinting at a close encounter.

Despite Nürnberg's unbeaten run, the model's most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 11%, with the next possibilities being 1-2 in favor of Hannover and then 2-1 to the hosts. Given the high over 2.5 goals probability of 61%, and both teams' tendencies to find the net, goals seem likely. Still, with Nürnberg's xGA slightly superior at 1.5 compared to Hannover's 1.7, defensive solidity might not be their undoing.

While Nürnberg has shown a knack for collecting points, the expected points (xPoints) suggest a closer battle, with Nürnberg at 5.7 and Hannover at 5.0. This, paired with Hannover's slightly higher xG per match, suggests potential value in backing Hannover at odds where they are slight underdogs.

The model leans toward a Hannover win. In a match where details will define the outcome, the visitors' high-press approach might just edge them past Nürnberg. A 1-2 victory for Hannover appears a plausible outcome, with value to be explored in that direction.

Nürnberg

Form DWWWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #5xP/match #10Points #2

Key players

Mohamed Ali ZomaLWxG 0.72 · xT 0.18
Adam MarkhievCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
Piet ScobelFxG 0.50 · xT 0.08

Hannover 96

Form DLLWD

League ranking xG #2xGA #13xT #1xP/match #15Points #11

Key players

Kolja OudenneLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.23
Benedikt Oscar PichlerFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
Mustapha BunduRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.45

Match prediction: Nürnberg – Hannover 96

Predicted score matrix

Hannover 96 →

Nürnberg →

0–04.7%

0–16.7%

0–25.6%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.7%

1–06.4%

1–111.0%

1–28.5%

1–34.6%

1–4+2.6%

2–05.1%

2–18.2%

2–26.6%

2–33.5%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.6%

3–14.2%

3–23.4%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.4%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.8%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,53–1,60

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.82EV+11%

Over 2,561%

@1.37

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hannover 96 or draw (X2)64%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hannover 96 or draw (X2)64%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Benjamin Källman to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Piet Lasse Scobel to score27%
Franz Roggow to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.562% probability@1.88PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
Under 3.562% probability@1.80BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
Under 3.562% probability@1.80BetssonEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nürnberg	X	2 · Hannover 96
Betsafe	2.45	3.55	2.45
Betsson	2.45	3.55	2.45
Nordicbet	2.45	3.55	2.45
Pinnacle	2.62	3.93	2.53

Odds updated 11 Sept, 10:21

Odds movement

1-5 %

38 %33 %

2.76 → 2.62

X+11 %

28 %23 %

3.55 → 3.93

2+2 %

41 %36 %

2.48 → 2.53

Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 05/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Nürnberg 1Draw 1Hannover 96 2

Goals: 6–8 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

Key facts

1. FC Nurnberg are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
1. FC Nurnberg have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nürnberg

Hannover 96

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nürnberg (13–5)

Hannover 96 (4–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nürnberg

Hannover 96

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nürnberg

Hannover 96

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nürnberg	Hannover 96
Points	10	4
xPoints	5.7	5
xG per match	1.8	2.1
xGA per match	1.5	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.54	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.55

Playing style	Nürnberg	Hannover 96
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.58	0.71
xT per match	1.2	1.6
xTA per match	0.76	0.74
Won balls, offensive half	21	29
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.32
Entries into the box per match	14	25
Entries into the box against	10	10
Pass completion %	0.79	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.75
Passes per match	390	434
Passes against per match	291	305
Switches of play per match	22.6	27.2
Long balls per match	32	36

Set pieces	Nürnberg	Hannover 96
xG from free kicks	0	0.12
Corners per match	4.7	6.5
Corners against per match	7	3.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.63	0.84
First touch, defensive corners %	0.38	0.79

Other	Nürnberg	Hannover 96
Throw-in control	0.72	0.79

The goalkeepers	Jan Reichert (Nürnberg)	Leo Weinkauf (Hannover 96)
Saves	10	14
Save %	67%	82%
xG prevented	65%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nürnberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Hannover 96

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 according to our model?

The model gives Hannover 96 a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nürnberg 37%, draw 25%, Hannover 96 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.