Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli: Prediction & Odds (4 Sept 2026)

2. Bundesliga4 September 2026SchücoArena, Bielefeld20°9,6 mm26 km/h

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Arminia BielefeldPossession control

2–2

St. PauliPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Arminia Bielefeld (48%)

1 · Arminia Bielefeld 48%X 26%26% St. Pauli · 2

48%

26%

Analysis: Arminia Bielefeld – St. Pauli

Oscar Nilsson · 3 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The recent head-to-head numbers between Arminia Bielefeld and St. Pauli are scant, so we turn to current form and expected goals to guide us. The home side edges out in form with 3 points compared to St. Pauli's 2, and they are slightly favored by the model, with a 48% chance of winning. While small, this data hints that Bielefeld might have the upper hand, at least on paper.

Digging deeper into the expected goals metrics, Bielefeld is projected at 1.66 xG compared to St. Pauli's 1.17 xG, suggesting that the hosts are likely to create more scoring opportunities. Yet, it's worth noting that the visitors possess a slightly higher xG per match this season at 1.7, indicating they have the capability to be dangerous, especially given their high press strategy. St. Pauli’s defensive metrics, however, show a vulnerability, with a slightly higher xGA than Bielefeld.

The weather might dampen the attacking verve, with 4.7 mm of rain forecasted, potentially suppressing the goal tally. Nonetheless, the model still leans towards over 2.5 goals at a 54% likelihood, so it's not entirely a deterrent for goal seekers. Both teams to score is also pegged at 56%, underlining the attacking potential on both sides despite the conditions.

From a betting perspective, the sharpest angle is on Bielefeld. The home win is available at odds of 2.22 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a value bet with a 7% edge according to the model. This price seems to underestimate Bielefeld's win probability and presents an opportunity for bettors willing to back the hosts in this matchup.

Arminia Bielefeld

Form LWLWL

League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #7xP/match #11Points #12

Key players

Joel GrodowskiFxG 0.67 · xT 0.17
Jannik RocheltLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.15
Stefano RussoCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.03

St. Pauli

Form DDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #2xP/match #9Points #16

Key players

Martijn KaarsFxG 0.33 · xT 0.20
David NemethCBxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
Arkadiusz PyrkaRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.24

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 48% · Draw 26% · St. Pauli 26%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Arminia BielefeldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,83fair 7,13-18 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FC St. PauliBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,84fair 14,30-52 %

Miss

Match prediction: Arminia Bielefeld – St. Pauli

Predicted score matrix

St. Pauli →

Arminia Bielefeld →

0–06.3%

0–16.6%

0–24.0%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.6%

1–09.5%

1–111.8%

1–26.7%

1–32.6%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.2%

2–19.5%

2–25.5%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.5%

3–15.3%

3–23.1%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.7%

4+–13.2%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,66–1,17

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.22EV+3%

Over 2,554%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Arminia Bielefeld to win48%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Arminia Bielefeld to win48%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Joel Grodowski to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Joel Grodowski to score27%
Joel Chima Fujita to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Arminia Bielefeld48% probability@2.47PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
1 · Arminia Bielefeld48% probability@2.32BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
1 · Arminia Bielefeld48% probability@2.32BetssonEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Arminia Bielefeld	X	2 · St. Pauli
Betsafe	EV+ 12% 2.32	3.40	2.72
Betsson	EV+ 12% 2.32	3.40	2.72
Nordicbet	EV+ 12% 2.32	3.40	2.72
Pinnacle	EV+ 19% 2.47	3.72	2.79

Odds updated 4 Sept, 11:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an St. Pauli win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 3.28 to 2.79 (−15%).

1+17 %

47 %37 %

2.11 → 2.47

X+1 %

31 %21 %

3.70 → 3.72

2-15 %

37 %27 %

3.28 → 2.79

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Arminia Bielefeld

St. Pauli

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Arminia Bielefeld (5–6)

St. Pauli (4–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Arminia Bielefeld

St. Pauli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Arminia Bielefeld

St. Pauli

The teams in numbers

Performance	Arminia Bielefeld	St. Pauli
Points	3	2
xPoints	4.1	4.1
xG per match	1.6	1.7
xGA per match	1.4	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.12

Playing style	Arminia Bielefeld	St. Pauli
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.39	0.6
xT per match	1.1	1.5
xTA per match	0.71	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	29	32
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.19
Entries into the box per match	12	15
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.71	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.72
Passes per match	292	375
Passes against per match	411	366
Switches of play per match	35.8	18.8
Long balls per match	40	31

Set pieces	Arminia Bielefeld	St. Pauli
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.07
Corners per match	7	6
Corners against per match	6.4	4
xG per corner	0.03	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.67

Other	Arminia Bielefeld	St. Pauli
Throw-in control	0.76	0.8

The goalkeepers	Jonas Kersken (Arminia Bielefeld)	Ben Alexander Voll (St. Pauli)
Saves	7	12
Save %	54%	71%
xG prevented	45%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Arminia Bielefeld

Fixtures, form & tips

St. Pauli

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli according to our model?

The model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arminia Bielefeld 48%, draw 26%, St. Pauli 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.