Darmstadt vs Hannover 96: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

2. Bundesliga30 August 2026Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Darmstadt22°16 km/h

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DarmstadtBalanced & physical

0–1

Hannover 96Possession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Hannover 96 (39%)Best value by the model: 1 · Darmstadt @ 2.93 (+6 %)

1 · Darmstadt 36%X 25%39% Hannover 96 · 2

36%

25%

39%

Analysis: Darmstadt – Hannover 96

Sofia Andersson · 29 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The clash between Darmstadt and Hannover 96 promises a tight contest, with both teams bringing contrasting styles to the fore. The model gives the visitors a slight edge, with a 39% probability of victory compared to the hosts' 36%. This matches Hannover's high-pressing pedigree, which might unsettle Darmstadt's balanced approach.

Recent meetings show a small sample favoring the hosts. Darmstadt has won three of the four encounters since 2023, but this historical tilt holds less weight than current form and expected goals. Despite Darmstadt's edge in direct points, the underlying metrics suggest a different story. Hannover 96 leads on expected points and expected goals, hinting at a mismatch not immediately obvious from the table.

The expected goals tell a clear tale: Hannover 96's attack is more potent, averaging 1.9 xG per match against Darmstadt's 0.66. Meanwhile, the visitors are more vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.7 xGA compared to Darmstadt's 1.3. This dynamic sets the stage for a match where both teams are likely to find the net. An over 2.5 goals outcome is probable at 58%, with a 61% chance of both teams scoring.

Given Hannover 96's slight model lean and superior xG numbers, the underlying data supports a narrow away win, with 1-2 as a plausible scoreline. While the head-to-head might suggest a home advantage, the numbers point toward Hannover 96 edging it on the road.

Darmstadt

Form LDLDL

League ranking xG #18xGA #5xT #16xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Hiroki AkiyamaCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Aleksandar VukotićCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.01
Patric PfeifferCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.06

Hannover 96

Form DDDLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #2xP/match #15Points #18

Key players

Maurice NeubauerRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.18
Kolja OudenneLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.19
Mustapha BunduRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.27

Final score

0 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Darmstadt 36% · Draw 25% · Hannover 96 39%

Match prediction: Darmstadt – Hannover 96

Predicted score matrix

Hannover 96 →

Darmstadt →

0–05.2%

0–17.5%

0–26.3%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.9%

1–06.6%

1–111.4%

1–28.9%

1–34.8%

1–4+2.7%

2–04.9%

2–17.8%

2–26.3%

2–33.4%

2–4+1.9%

3–02.3%

3–13.7%

3–23.0%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,42–1,60

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

–

Over 2,558%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hannover 96 or draw (X2)67%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hannover 96 or draw (X2)67%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Benjamin Källman to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Isac Alexi Sivert Lidberg to score30%
Hiroki Akiyama to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Darmstadt36% probability@2.93PinnacleEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Darmstadt	X	2 · Hannover 96
Pinnacle	EV+ 6% 2.93	3.77	2.35

Odds updated 30 Aug, 10:32

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Darmstadt win since 22 August — the odds have shortened from 3.17 to 2.93 (−8%).

1-8 %

36 %26 %

3.17 → 2.93

X-5 %

30 %20 %

3.95 → 3.77

2+13 %

49 %39 %

2.08 → 2.35

Pinnacle · 22 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Darmstadt 3Draw 0Hannover 96 1

Goals: 8–6 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Darmstadt

Hannover 96

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Darmstadt (2–3)

Hannover 96 (1–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Darmstadt

Hannover 96

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Darmstadt

Hannover 96

The teams in numbers

Performance	Darmstadt	Hannover 96
Points	1	0
xPoints	1.8	2.1
xG per match	0.66	1.9
xGA per match	1.3	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.22

Playing style	Darmstadt	Hannover 96
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.48	0.57
xT per match	0.62	1.5
xTA per match	0.87	0.67
Won balls, offensive half	33	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.36
Entries into the box per match	10	20
Entries into the box against	11	9
Pass completion %	0.79	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.73
Passes per match	383	380
Passes against per match	511	320
Switches of play per match	24.1	29.3
Long balls per match	31	44

Set pieces	Darmstadt	Hannover 96
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.2
Corners per match	6.7	7.1
Corners against per match	5.6	4
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.71
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.86

Other	Darmstadt	Hannover 96
Throw-in control	0.79	0.82

The goalkeepers	Marcel Schuhen (Darmstadt)	Leo Weinkauf (Hannover 96)
Saves	9	6
Save %	75%	86%
xG prevented	56%	31%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Darmstadt

Fixtures, form & tips

Hannover 96

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Darmstadt vs Hannover 96 according to our model?

The model gives Hannover 96 a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Darmstadt 36%, draw 25%, Hannover 96 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.